Foreign Trade Is Still Looking Forward To Spring &Nbsp; The Two Or Three Quarter Will Turn Better.

After March 2010 and February 2011, China in February

After March 2010 and February 2011, China's foreign trade has been in a single month trade deficit.

According to statistics released by the General Administration of Customs in March 10th, China exported 114 billion 470 million US dollars in February and imports of US $145 billion 960 million, an increase of 18.4% and 39.6% respectively over the same period last year.

After seasonally adjusted, the growth rate of exports and imports in February was 4% and 9.4% respectively. The trade deficit of that month exceeded 31 billion 400 million US dollars, and the cumulative deficit in January ~2 was 4 billion 250 million US dollars.

Industry experts believe that the deficit reflects the country.

Exports continue to slow down in February, the biggest monthly deficit.

China's export growth continued to decline in February.

According to the annulus data after the quarterly adjustment, exports in February dropped by 24.1 percentage points from the previous month, and imports rose slightly by 3.2 percentage points, indicating that exports fell sharply and imports slightly improved, which directly led to China's trade deficit of 31 billion 483 million US dollars in the month of February, the largest deficit in the single month for at least 10 years.

"This is expected to reflect the strong domestic demand, which is the result of the adjustment of the policy of expanding domestic demand."

Zhang Xiaoji, Minister of the Ministry of foreign affairs and Economic Research of the State Council Development and Research Center, said, "there are several months' lag in taking orders to production and export. The slowdown in exports caused by the reduction in orders since the second half of last year will continue to the first quarter."

"Because of the Spring Festival, some of the imports in January were reduced to February, so in February, imports increased by US $23 billion 300 million over January."

Li Jian, a researcher at the Ministry of Commerce and international trade and economic cooperation, China foreign trade research department, told reporters.

According to Li Jian analysis, from a long-term perspective, the stability of rigid import demand, such as resources, energy and production materials, has also led to a deficit, which reflects the sustained growth of domestic demand and investment.

Customs statistics show that in January ~2 months, China imported 1.2 million tons of iron ore, an increase of 5.7%, an average import price of 136.4 dollars per ton, down 12.9%, soybean (4502,22.00,0.49%) imports 8 million 440 thousand tons, an increase of 13.2%, the import price of 521.6 U. s.dollars per ton, down 7.7%.

In addition, the import and export of mechanical and electrical products increased by 2.4%, with an increase of 107 billion 590 million US dollars, of which 184 thousand vehicles were imported, an increase of 33.2%.

China's foreign trade will improve in the two or three quarter

However, the decline in foreign trade growth has not affected the market's optimistic forecast of China's annual foreign trade trend.

Zhang Xiaoji believed that the deficit in February was only a single month phenomenon, and there would be a slight surplus in import and export for the whole year.

He judged that China's foreign trade situation will gradually warm up in the second, third quarter of this year.

Data show that in February, the official and HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose for third consecutive months, driven by factors such as the concentrated operation of enterprises after the Spring Festival. Official data reached a five month high of 51, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and the HSBC index reached four months high 49.6.

Among them, the new export orders index, backlog order index and purchase price index increased by more than 4 percentage points.

In addition, the US economic data released in March 10th showed that the US market is warming.

The US Department of Commerce announced that US wholesale (wholesale) inventories rose 0.4% in January from an increase of 0.6% in the previous month, and increased by 1.1% in December (the previous value was 1%). The consumer price index increased 0.2% from last month, revised after December, and the producer price index rose 0.1%, and 0.1% in December.

"China's order index increased in February, and the US stock, production and consumption index is also increasing, releasing the market signals in the coming months. All these data reveal that China's foreign trade will become warmer in the second quarter and the third quarter."

Zhang Xiaoji said.

As for the European Union, Zhang Xiaoji believes that the market downturn will affect trade, but rigid demand still exists.

Li Shaode, chairman of the CPPCC National Committee and President of China Shipping Group Corporation, also believes that opportunities exist in the European market.

He pointed out that although the European debt crisis can not be eliminated in the short term and takes a long time to solve, the containers exported to Europe are mostly low-end consumer goods or semi-finished products. For Europe, it is necessary to find a market which is lower than China's cost and cannot be achieved in the short term. China's exports to Europe are still weak.

In January 31st, Maersk announced that the container freight rate of the Eurasian line increased from March 1st to 775 USD / TEUs. Compared with the current line, the freight rate of the US $800 / TEUs is almost doubled.

After that, there were mediterranean shipping, evergreen shipping, Da Fei steamship, China shipping, COSCO and other shipping giants announced the implementation of the price increase plan from March 1st.

Li Shaode said that after the freight rate was raised, China Shipping could basically make full warehouse launch, and European market had rigid demand. Besides, Europe did not replenishment after a long time, and there was also demand for replenishing stocks.