2012: China'S Economy "To Seek Stability"

The international situation is "stable in chaos" and the domestic economy is "stable".

On the eve of the "Eighteen big" Eve: the economic situation analysis conference sponsored by Tsinghua University, China and the world economic center (CCWE), Li Daokui used these eight words to describe his "2012". On behalf of his team, he announced the macroeconomic forecast results, and experts also made suggestions on hot topics such as stock market and real estate regulation.

China's economy enters "stability"

According to the CCWE macro prediction model, CPI is expected to grow by 3.04% year-on-year in 2012, but inflation pressure is still on the way. In March and April, CPI will rise again or increase in March and April, and the trade surplus will further narrow to 0.98% of the total annual trade surplus.

Monetary conditions continue to improve, with M2 expected to grow by 13.8% in 2012 compared with the previous year, and the contribution of consumption to GDP growth will be further enhanced.

The annual GDP growth rate was 8.4%, of which the first quarter GDP growth rate was 8.4%, the second quarter dropped to 7.9%, the two quarter began to rebound, showing a U trend.

Li Daokui and his team believe that the European debt crisis and the Iran issue, the fluctuation of international oil prices and domestic agricultural products supply, the slowing down of foreign trade growth, the uncertainty of macro policy judgment and decision making, and so on, make China's macro-economy in 2012 full of uncertainties. China's economy will be stable and steady, and its growth rate will continue to fall steadily and steadily. It is unlikely to be a huge and rapid decline. The capital market needs to stabilize confidence through reform. Real estate is striving to steadily adjust the market through improving existing policies.

But Yuan Gangming, a member of the research group and a researcher at the Institute of Economic Research of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that due to the sharp decline in housing prices in 2012, the real estate related industries, financial revenues and so on will be affected by this decline.

He cautioned that "the current macroeconomic situation analysis and policy research should attach great importance to the risk of deep decline in China's economy."

Yuan Gangming analysis.

As for the international situation, Yuan Gangming's judgment is that the European debt crisis and the world economic outlook are much more serious, and the sharp decline of China's exports under external shocks is difficult to reverse.

In view of the fact that the income distribution plan for expanding domestic consumption remains unchanged, the weakening trend of consumption demand and the declining trend of consumption will continue. The severity of China's economy is getting worse and worse than before. The current macroeconomic situation analysis and policy research should attach great importance to the risk of deep decline in China's economy.

The stock market looks forward to policy force.

"China's capital market as an emerging market dividend, the enthusiasm of investors, including" remember to eat, do not remember to fight, "the state is almost consumed, we are very disappointed with this market.

Liu Jipeng, a professor at China University of Political Science and Law, said that in the past two years, the European and American stock markets, which were impacted by the international financial crisis, began to recover, but the Chinese stock market was in a bad mood: the stock market value had reached 24 trillion yuan from 30 trillion and 500 billion yuan, and the average loss of investors was between 50 thousand yuan and 70 thousand yuan.

"It seems that the international financial crisis did not happen in the US and Europe, as if it happened in China."

Let Liu Jipeng feel confused also: stock index falls, bear the whole world at the same time, financing is in full swing.

Liu Jipeng said that people call the stock market the investment market of the bear, but it is a hero's financing market.

Because in 2010, it raised 1 trillion of the world's financing, and last year it was 700 billion.

"A bear, a hero, shows that the market in the current state is a very abnormal market."

He did not certify many positive measures taken by the board last year to restore market confidence, such as appealed to the pension market, the compulsory dividend and the reform of the trial system. The chairman of the new SFC Guo Shuqing even went to the sales department to talk with shareholders.

The new ideas of reform seem to be forming, but to really see the results, Liu Jipeng believes that the system design should be made from three links: first, the reform of the trial system; two, the bond may be vigorously launched; and the three is the OTC market.

The core of market regulation is to grasp both hands.

According to CCWE, sales of commercial housing increased by 4.1% in 2012, lower than the 5.2% growth rate in 2011, and the sales area was basically flat with that in 2011.

At the meeting, Qin Hong, director of the policy research center of the Ministry of housing and urban rural development, said that the subjective and objective conditions for the rebound in housing prices were not available this year. The core of the current regulation is to curb speculation and build affordable housing.

Qin Hong said that there are two regulatory effects in China's housing market: investment and speculative demand are squeezed out of the market, and the current real estate market is basically supported by "rigid demand"; the increase in housing prices has finally been controlled, and the prices of some cities have been significantly reduced.

In addition to the policy of restriction, she believes that the tight monetary policy has affected the entire real estate industry chain, including the funds needed for the development of Housing enterprises and the funds needed for buyers to buy houses.

Why do we say that the subjective and objective conditions for the rise in housing prices are not available this year? In Qin's view, from the subjective point of view, the central and local governments have put strict demands on controlling the rise in housing prices, so as to promote the rational return of housing prices.

Objective conditions, the housing market is still digesting inventory stage, housing prices can not raise sales.

Qin Hong believes that the core of the current market regulation is to hold two hands together: one hand