Xie Guozhong: The Burden Of The People And China's Economy

There is no suspense. The Chinese government will sharply reduce the target of economic growth. Of course, the government will always say that this is aimed at improving people's living standards, giving priority to environmental protection and health care. But if we do not carry out drastic reforms, the result may be that the economy has slowed down and people's livelihood is still not improving.

The core issue facing the Chinese economy is how to allocate the fruits of economic development. Market competition does lead to polarization between the rich and the poor. But the inequality of property in Chinese society comes mainly from power monopoly. The essence of these practices is to set up monopolistic enterprises, raise land prices and increase taxes, and allocate the fruits of economic development to specific interest groups. Therefore, whether China can make a fortune depends on whether the enterprise is close to the government. The housing market and the stock market have also created some lucky fortune makers, which make people feel lucky whether they can make a fortune or not. But in fact, those speculative activities are negative games, and their rules determine that most participants are bound to lose money.

China's economic growth is bound to slow down, which is because the mode of overproduction has been difficult to sustain. In the past, the old way of repeated construction would only lead to inflation, and finally forced the depositors to bear the losses caused by the waste of resources and unfair distribution. The reason is that the people are not only unable to share the fruits of economic growth, but the property in their hands will be plundered in disguise. This is the real reason why the government dare not continue to spoil the currency.

The four driving forces of China's economy: exports and automobiles Sale Government expenditure and real estate market At present, it is difficult to reverse any aspect of the current downturn. Of course, export weakness is caused by external reasons, because the economies in China's sales market are depressed. It will take a long time to restore their purchasing power.

Some possible policy options, such as the transfer of funds to local governments through financial operations or financial transfer payments, can not solve the fundamental problems. The core power of China's fixed assets investment lies in bank credit. Because of the devaluation of major collateral (land), credit is unlikely to expand as it used to be. In promoting real estate, there is no way to replace bank loans.

In the current political system, financial investment in environmental protection or health care will only result in huge waste. High speed rail is likely to be the most important national project in the past ten years, and the scale of procurement is also alarming. Then, in the field of environmental protection and decentralized management of expenditure, the scale of the waste of funds will probably exceed everyone's imagination. Now, no matter what the Chinese government wants to do, corruption is the biggest bottleneck. Of course, few people in real life make the right choice. The goal of reducing economic growth is simply to accept the reality passively, and the economic scale will shrink. Any original "pattern" and "characteristic" will remain the same.

Compared with Americans, Europeans and Japanese, the Chinese people can be said to be the most capable people, and few people need government help. The difficulties faced by governments in Europe and the United States do not exist in China. The Chinese government has such a common people as the happiest government in the world. But China also has problems in China, contrary to the rest of the world. Other governments fear that the people are asking too much. Chinese people are afraid that the government will take too much.

As long as the burden of the people is not excessive, China's economy will flourish. In 1930s, the world economy was completely depressed, and China's economy was advancing vigorously. Because the government at that time was inefficient, the people had more freedom of action. Shanghai It has become the third largest city in the world. It is not very difficult to realize China's economic prosperity. In the past decades of reform and opening up, the people have gained a little bit of self-determination, and the achievements can not be ignored. If the Chinese government can take a step back and give the people more autonomy, China will grow into the world's largest economy within fifteen years.