China'S Clothing And Textile Exports To Negative Growth Should Take Measures

Weak demand and other factors affect China's clothing and textile exports.

According to the statistics of customs information network, in April this year, China

10 billion 390 million US dollars, down 6.4% from the same period last year, and textile exports were US $8 billion 410 million, down 4.1% compared to the same period last year.

Comparing the relevant data, customs information network analyst Liang Nan introduced the impact in detail.

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The main negative factors of export:

In the main export markets, EU consumer demand continued to be weak, leading to a decline in overall exports.

Affected by the sovereign debt crisis, consumption demand in the EU market is seriously insufficient.

In February this year, the EU consumer confidence index was -20.1 and the euro area consumer confidence index was -20.2, still in a negative range. In February 23rd, the European Commission lowered the EU's 2012 GDP growth forecast from 0.5% to -0.3%, indicating that Europe is in a predicament of "mild recession".

The continued weakening of consumption demand in the European market, even if the growth of demand for textile and clothing in emerging economies is not enough to offset the negative impact of the EU market, has led to a sharp decline in China's textile and clothing exports.

International trade protectionism continues to heat up.

With the development of economic globalization, international trade has become more frequent and trade frictions are showing a trend of rapid growth. Trade protectionism, which is mainly trade technology barriers (TBT), is becoming more and more serious.

The three major trade partners of China, the European Union, the United States and Japan, have developed technical trade measures against the performance and quality constraints of the products themselves, and developed to higher requirements for the whole process of product production, packaging, labelling, marking, processing, pportation and so on, and the testing standards are becoming more and more complex.

In recent years, the direct loss of China's technical barriers to trade has increased at an average annual rate of 15%.

With the continued deterioration of the European debt crisis and the sluggish recovery in the US economy, trade protectionism in the European and American countries has been further heated up.

China has become the largest target country in the global countervailing investigation. More than 70% of the world's countervailing investigations are directed against China. Various trade protectionism barriers are constantly increasing and the forms are constantly updating, which has greatly raised the export threshold of China's textile and clothing products.

The continued appreciation of RMB weakens the export advantage of products.

In February this year, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar broke through the 6.3 pass for the first time.

At the same time, the currencies of other emerging economies are quite different from those of the US dollar. In 2011, India rupees, Brazil Real and Russia rouble depreciated 16.13%, 11.01% and 5.18% against the US dollar respectively, while Asian emerging economies such as the Korean won, the Indonesian shield, the Thai baht and Malaysia ringgit depreciated by 2.30%, 0.80%, 4.69% and 3.30% against the US dollar respectively.

The rapid appreciation of the RMB and the depreciation of the currencies of the neighboring countries to the US dollar will weaken the price advantage of China's textile and clothing in the international market, and the export of our textile and clothing will be restrained.

In the first half of 2012, under the influence of the European debt crisis, the euro would be more likely to continue to depreciate other non US currencies. If the renminbi continues to maintain its appreciation against the US dollar, it will have a greater impact on China's exports.

Domestic comprehensive costs continue to rise, increasing business pressure.

After the Spring Festival this year, the "labor shortage" arrived on schedule. Labor intensive enterprises represented by textile and clothing were in a more severe situation under the condition of lack of jobs all the year round.

According to the Guangdong Provincial Department of human resources and social affairs, the short term shortage of workers in the Pearl River Delta region is nearly 1 million. The structural "labor shortage" has led to a rapid rise in labor costs. In 2011, a total of 24 provinces adjusted the minimum wage standard, an average increase of 22%.

At the same time, raw materials prices remain high, water and electricity costs rise sharply, and the continuous increase of domestic comprehensive cost will inevitably lead to the pressure of labor intensive textile and garment enterprises to increase.

India and Vietnam will use trade agreements to enhance export competitiveness.

At present, negotiations between India and the European Union free trade agreement have entered the final stage. The agreement proposes to cut 90% bilateral trade tariffs in the next 10 years until all of them are cancelled.

Once the agreement is implemented, it will greatly enhance the export competitiveness of India's textile and clothing to the EU market.

In addition, negotiations on the Pan Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement (TPP), including the United States, Peru and Vietnam, have entered the final stage. The agreement will clearly help Vietnam improve its quality of key export items, such as textiles and clothing, and increase its export scale. Last year Vietnam was already the second largest export to the United States textile and clothing after China.

Once the agreement is formally implemented, it will further weaken the competitive advantage of China's textile and apparel in the international market.

The sharp fluctuation of cotton prices will impact the stable operation of the industry.

Since last year, the domestic and foreign cotton market has seen a rapid rise and fall in the roller coaster pattern.

In March 8th last year, China's cotton price 328 index was 31241 yuan per ton. In December 5th, the index fell to 19001 yuan per ton, down 39.2%, and the cotton price index in February 28, 2012 was 19615 yuan / ton [3].

The trend of domestic cotton price ups and downs has not only caused the production and marketing of textile and garment production enterprises to be sluggish, stock potential losses and profits have declined, but also the negative effects have been pmitted along the industrial chain, which has affected the normal production and market confidence of the upstream and downstream enterprises. Moreover, because of the overdrive of cotton prices in the early stage, the paction and procurement have been reduced, and now the inventory is difficult to consume, and cotton prices continue to run low. The profits of cotton spinning enterprises have shrunk sharply, and the risk of operation has increased greatly, which has seriously hampered the stable operation of the textile and garment industry.

All parties need to take measures to deal with them positively.

Turning to the above data, Liang Nan, an analyst with customs information network, pointed out that as a traditional labor-intensive industry, and the key export products, textiles and clothing accounted for 11.5% of the total exports in the same period of the year. The proportion of two of them is equivalent to that of imported crude oil, which shows its important position, while the negative growth of the two is very noteworthy.

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The market concentration degree and the establishment of logistics centers and distribution centers in the main export markets will enhance the control of the terminal market of textile products.