Analysis Of The Development Trend Of China'S Cotton Market This Year

Since the beginning of this year, Zheng cotton has been at the height of value than cotton and spot cotton.

After the fall in May, the value of Zheng cotton needs to be re examined.

There will be no gap in cotton this year.

There is still a need to lower prices to achieve competitiveness.

Cotton prices "stumble"

Zheng cotton futures price falls below reserve price

Zheng cotton recently fell for 4 consecutive trading weeks. The contract price of this year fell below 19000 yuan / ton, which was close to the bid price of grade four cotton. The 1301 contract in the next year fell below 20000 yuan / ton, which was once far away from the storage price and reached 1000 yuan / ton.

After the long lost recognition, the market rebounded, and the early fall was revised.

China's cotton price index (Ccindex328) shows that the rate of decline in May has accelerated, the decrease in May was close to 400 yuan / ton, and the Ccindex328 index was quoted at 18970 yuan / ton in May 21st.

The mainland's 428 average price index also maintained a downward trend. In May 21st, it quoted 18350 yuan / ton, down 240 yuan / ton in May.

The competitive advantage of outer cotton is still obvious.

Foreign cotton fell sharply to below 80 cents after the cancellation of contracts and the negative supply and demand report.

Because of the sharp decline in foreign cotton, the price of foreign investors in the port continued to decline. The international cotton price index CotlookA (FE) shows that cotton prices have fallen considerably, and the index has fallen 100 cents and 90 cents continuously. As of May 21st, the CotlookA (FE) index closed at 85.40 cents / pound, equivalent to 14236 yuan / ton.

Cotton instead of raw materials prices continue to weaken

The price of cotton instead of polyester staple fiber and viscose staple fiber has been decreasing little recently. The cost of upstream and the ratio of cotton to cotton are the competitiveness of chemical fiber and textile raw materials.

In May 18th, the cotton net polyester index was quoted at 10880 yuan / ton, down by 100 yuan / ton compared with the end of 4, and the price of 16070 yuan / ton was sticky short, the price dropped 150 yuan / ton compared with the end of 4.

Yarn trend continues weak

Because of the suppression of inventory, the trend of yarn price is still weak. In May 18th, the price of C32S yarn was 26240 yuan / ton, and the index of combing 40 was 31460 yuan / ton. At the beginning of May, the price quoted by Wei Qiao affected the quotation once, but the poor sales made the price difficult to go up.

At present, a large textile enterprise in Binzhou, Shandong still has no acquisition plan.

The operating rate was 70%. In the beginning of May, some of the yarn prices were raised. Some of the marketable cotton yarns were raised by 500~1000 yuan / ton, and the individual specifications (sending Guangdong prices) increased by 3000 yuan / ton. Now combed J32S and J40S are reported at 32000 yuan / ton, 33500 yuan / ton respectively, and the C32S is reported to be 31500 yuan / ton.

Relevant responsible person said that due to the recent sales in Guangdong area is better, the price of the corresponding specifications began to rise.

Sufficient supply demand downturn

Global cotton consumption cut

Global cotton supply and demand forecast in USDA5 month showed that the global cotton production was not adjusted very much this year, but the consumption dropped to 23 million 185 thousand tons, which was reduced by 274 thousand tons, making the final stock increase by 176 thousand tons to 14 million 562 thousand tons.

The consumption adjustment is mainly to reduce China by 108 thousand tons and other adjustments to cotton producers such as Pakistan and Bangladesh.

China's quota issuance has increased the import volume of China to 4 million 681 thousand tons and raised 218 thousand tons.

The decline in China's consumption and the increase in imports have raised the final stocks by 326 thousand tons to 5 million 351 thousand tons, most of which are national reserves.

The adjustment of China's imports corresponds to the reduction of the export treasury of India and Brazil.

Generally speaking, the data forecast for this year is relatively empty. The main reason is the reduction of consumption. The author estimates that the estimated value of USDA and ICAC is still relatively high, but judging from the pace of USDA adjustment, the magnitude of the latter will not be too large.

China's output has been cut to 6 million 641 thousand tons on the 2012/2013 data forecast, which is basically in line with the decline in the current domestic research area. Consumption continues to be reduced mainly based on the empty economy, and there is a great possibility of adjustment in later consumption data.

In the prediction of global cotton, the report reduced the global output by 5% compared with the previous year, but consumption was slightly raised. Global output is still 1 million 459 thousand tons higher than consumption and converted to new stocks.

The output of the United States has been adjusted from 310 thousand tons to 3 million 701 thousand tons over the previous year. However, the increase in export volume and the relatively stable consumption increased 130 thousand.

Domestic cotton supply is adequate.

According to the previous analysis of cotton supply in China, the total supply of domestic cotton in this year is 7 million 140 thousand tons, and the delivered reserves are 3 million 130 thousand tons, and the total surplus cotton is 4 million 10 thousand tons.

From the platform of Xinjiang, 1 million 200 thousand tons of commercial cotton were shipped on the 15 day of May. Due to the recent strengthening of the pport capacity of the exported cotton, according to the daily pportation of 160 wagons to the commercial cotton, the number of Xinjiang cotton pported to the mainland can reach about 1 million 300 thousand tons at the end of 5.

As of the end of 5 this year, the total supply of domestic cotton is about 4 million 280 thousand tons.

In terms of external cotton, the government made a decision to reduce the cost of cotton production in the case of declining orders and dismal export data.

In May 9th, I got the news that the quota had been issued, or the quantity was 1 million tons, which was issued by the state and private sectors. The issuance was gradually issued, and the quota was general trade and processing trade.

Earlier, some textile enterprises have ordered the outer cotton, which is waiting for quota clearance.

The new quotas also began to flow into the market, and the price was around 2000 yuan / ton.

Due to the quotas, the cotton that is not cleared at the port will be partially cleared, and the quota has not yet been released in the early stage, which makes the quantity of cotton that has not been cleared at the port is huge, and the cotton that has been cleared has been gradually consumed.

From the import volume of 509 thousand and 700 tons in April, the number of non cleared cotton increased by at least 200 thousand tons in April.

Domestic cotton demand remains depressed

China cotton information network survey shows that as of the end of April 2012, the total domestic cotton business inventories amounted to 2 million 420 thousand tons (including cotton and cotton entering the circulation link, excluding national cotton reserves), which was 450 thousand tons lower than the 2 million 870 thousand tons at the end of March.

Among them, the mainland's commercial inventory is 1 million 770 thousand tons, and the commercial inventory in Xinjiang is 650 thousand tons.

In the real estate area, there were 970 thousand tons of stock in five provinces of Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Shanxi and Shanxi provinces in the the Yellow River basin, and 680 thousand tons in the four provinces of Jiangsu, Anhui, Hubei and Hunan provinces in the Yangtze River Valley, and 120 thousand tons in other scattered areas.

According to the industrial inventory of China's cotton reserves, according to the sampling survey of the national cotton market monitoring system, as of May 9th, the average cotton inventory used by the enterprises surveyed was about 38.6 days (including the quantity of cotton imported to Hong Kong), a decrease of 5.3 days, an increase of 0.5 days compared with that of the previous three years, an increase of 2.7 days compared with the average level of nearly three years.

According to relevant data projections, the national cotton industry inventory of about 888 thousand tons, a decrease of 12%, a year-on-year decrease of 8%, an average inventory reduction of 8.3% over the past three years.

Cotton industry stocks in different provinces are different, and Fujian, Anhui, Jiangsu and other provinces have relatively large stock of cotton industry.

Due to the difference of samples, from the results of the author's investigation, cotton enterprises have different control over the days of raw materials inventory due to their different sizes, especially in some small factories, where cotton stocks have been pferred to about two weeks.

According to this calculation, at the end of March, the amount of seed cotton in the hands of farmers was about 150 thousand tons, and some of them should be pferred to commercial inventories, coupled with the reduction of industrial inventories (adjusted according to the supply and demand forecast of cotton monitoring system). In addition to the amount of cotton cleared, the consumption in April was about 700 thousand tons, and cotton consumption remained relatively low.

High inventory and export downturn

The stock of yarn and cloth remains high.

As of May 8th, the yarn production and sales rate of the enterprises surveyed was 97%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points, up 10.1 percentage points from the same period last year, 4.6 percentage points higher than the average level of nearly three years, and 17.3 days of inventory sales, a decrease of 0.9 days, a decrease of 6.2 days from the same period last year, and a decrease of 0.8 days compared with the average level of nearly three years.

Cloth production and sales rate was 90.9%, an increase of 4.1 percentage points, an increase of 1 percentage points compared with the same period last year, 2.2 percentage points lower than the average level of nearly three years, and 55.4 days of inventory sales, a decrease of 1.2 days, an increase of 17.8 days from the same period, an increase of 20.1 days over the average level of nearly three years.

As enterprises actively reduce the operating rate, the inventory of yarn and cloth has dropped slightly, but it is still at a high level.

Clothing inventory is still grim.

After winning $71 billion 103 million in 2011, 2012,

The stock of the industry increased to 73 billion 172 million yuan, an increase of 10 billion 849 million yuan over the first quarter of last year, up 17.4% from the 62 billion 323 million yuan in the first quarter.

Data show that in the above 84 listed companies, 72 companies inventory more than 100 million yuan, 12 companies inventory of over 1 billion yuan.

According to incomplete statistics, in 2011, 15 of the 22 listed companies in textile, clothing and fur industry had negative turnover.

Of these, 9 companies had a 10% decline in inventory turnover.

Export of textile and clothing is dismal.

In April, the export data of textiles were still bleak. The latest data of the General Administration of Customs showed that in April 2012, China exported about 18 billion 800 million US dollars in textile and clothing, a decrease of 5.4% over the same period last year, an increase of 18.8 percentage points, an increase of 0.06%, an increase of 93.41 percentage points.

Exports of textile yarns, fabrics and products were US $8 billion 407 million, a year-on-year decrease of 4.12%, a decrease of 1.15% in the ring ratio, and an export garment and accessories accessories of US $10 billion 394 million, a decrease of 6.42% over the same period last year, and an increase of 1.06% in the ring.

In 2012 1~4, textile and apparel exports totaled $68 billion 814 million, an increase of 0.48% over the same period last year.

The third phase of the 111st Canton Fair was held on ~5 5 May 1st.

Although there are foreign orders in the exhibition, but the domestic textile enterprises are afraid to take the list too low due to the cost consideration. Many low end list in Europe and America have been pferred to Bangladesh, Thailand, Vietnam and Kampuchea and other Southeast Asian regions.

On the morning of May 2nd, Vice Minister of Commerce Li Jinzao held a symposium on the foreign trade situation during the 111 Canton Fair, to understand the current situation and the general situation of foreign trade this year.

For this year's foreign trade situation, representatives of various units generally indicated that the overall situation is not optimistic.

Some delegates expressed insufficient confidence in this year's export growth of 10%.

Cotton seedlings grow gratifying

In April, Xinjiang took the lead to open the curtain of spring sowing. Then, the the Yellow River basin and the Yangtze River Basin entered the spring sowing and seedling emergence stage.

The weather in the Yellow River river basin is basically normal, the air temperature is slightly low, and the rainfall is timely. The progress of spring sowing is basically the same as that of previous years. Some areas have been postponed slightly. At present, the sowing of some areas has ended, and the emergence of cotton is good, and there are two pieces of real leaves.

The sowing work in Hebei and Shandong was basically completed. Early cotton covered with plastic film had sprout and cotton seedlings grew well.

The spring sowing weather in the Yangtze River Valley is poor, mainly due to low temperature, insufficient illumination and heavy rainfall. Some areas are accompanied by gale weather. The spring sowing in this area has been postponed for 7~15 days.

Some cotton areas in southern Xinjiang were attacked by gale and cooling. The plastic film was blown up, and the cotton seedlings were frozen or killed by sand and gravel. The seedling emergence rate was not high at low temperature. The cotton growers in Akesu, Bachu and Bazhou in the southern Xinjiang were closely related to the re broadcasting and replanting.

At present, the cotton seedling is in its developing stage. From the information from all parts of the world, the temperature of cotton growing areas in the the Yellow River River Basin has gradually increased, mainly on sunny days. The cotton is growing well, and some cotton fields have diseases and insect pests, but the problem is not big.

Rapeseed harvesting in the cotton growing area of the Yangtze River Basin has been carried out. After the rape harvest is over, the pplanting of cotton seedlings begins.

The rising temperature in the Yangtze River Basin is more suitable for cotton growth.

Cotton prices will remain low in the future market

The direct reason for the low market quotation in May is the issuance of quotas, which makes Zheng cotton need to reposition its former value highland, and its value's return process is achieved by fierce fierce war.

Since the middle of April, the trend of Zheng cotton has obviously weakened, and the quotas have always affected the market.

In May 8th, the Bulls suddenly increased their positions on the July contracts, but the market trend was not fully matched on that day. On the 9 day, I got the news that the quotas were issued.

Under the cooperation of quota policy, Zheng cotton quickly increased its position, and the bears occupied the absolute advantage. In the late stage, with the large number of contracts in July, they reduced their positions substantially.

The main force of the September contract continued to substantially reduce its position, or recognize losses, or move to 1301 contracts far away.

By May 17th, from the perspective of the position structure, the big market has come to an end.

As I mentioned in the Zhengzhou Cotton Conference "2012 Cotton Industry Chain Research Report", Zheng cotton is at the height of value than cotton and spot cotton.

After the fall in May, we need to re-examine the value of Zheng cotton.

In the current stage, the spot price difference of spot 1207 contracts is now 200 yuan / ton ~300 yuan / ton, if the real estate three level is the target, the cash spot will be higher than the futures market.

But at present, the four level index of real estate is 18350 yuan / ton, and India cotton quotation is 18000 yuan / ton ~18400 yuan / ton, taking into account the quality premium of futures cotton, 1207 has also been close to spot to a slight discount.

From the price point of view, the cotton contract is basically priced at four levels this year.

May delivery of cotton 61800 tons, equivalent to 12360 hands, but from the warehouse receipt report, most of these deliveries of warehouse receipts are not currently out of the futures market, and the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton makes the competitiveness of domestic cotton still weak.

As of May 21st, Zheng cotton registered warehouse receipt 3341, effective forecast of 625, equivalent to 158 thousand and 640 tons of cotton.

At present, there are more than 2.7 hand positions in the 1207 contracts, and about 1.35 hands are held on one side, which is less than 70 thousand tons of cotton.

The difference between the 1207 and 1209 contracts is 470 yuan / ton. Taking into account the 1209 contract, the quality of the warehouse receipts is 180 yuan / ton, from the price difference, the empty warehouse receipt is still willing to choose the 1207 contract to pfer.

From the current price point of view, this year's contract has basically been put together.

Due to the issuance of quotas, the newly cleared cotton will pressure the cotton that has been cleared. The quotations of foreign merchants have been repeatedly lowered. The price of cotton E/MOTM is around 15 thousand yuan, Uzbekistan cotton is below 17 thousand yuan, while the India cotton quotation is priced below 15 thousand yuan.

According to the import cotton price index (FCIndex index), the price gap between inside and outside is still widening.

As of May 21st, the FCIndexM index was sliding quasi tax 15130 yuan / ton, down 1958 yuan / ton compared with the end of 4; 1% tariff was 14629 yuan / ton, compared with the end of 4, 1978 yuan / ton.

From the price difference, FCIndexM is lower than the domestic price 328 index of 3840 yuan / ton (sliding tax difference) and 4341 yuan / ton (1% tariff difference), regardless of the quotas price, the outer cotton still has a very big price advantage.

The price of cotton for port customs clearance is 19000 yuan / ton. The price of Uzbekistan cotton is 18500 yuan / ton ~19000 yuan / ton, the price of India cotton has reached 18000 yuan / ton, and the length of 1-5/32 price is up 200 yuan / ton ~300 yuan / ton. SM1-1/8

From the quotation of off site cotton, the competitiveness of prices is still relatively large, and cotton enterprises will still increase the use of cotton.

The number of quotas issued is 1 million tons. The author understands that the volume of usage can be around 500 thousand tons. The general trade quota is expected to be used mainly for port cotton clearance. The increase of new cotton orders will depend on the use of high-grade cotton.

According to the previous accounting, after calculating this quota, even if there is no dumping, there will be no shortfall in cotton this year.

From this point of view, domestic cotton prices in the current year will still need to lower prices to achieve price competitiveness.