The Impact Of Us Oil Industry Floating On China'S Polyester Filament Industry

The EIA report released on 1 May showed that last week (May 28th ~6 1), the US crude oil inventories increased by 2 million 200 thousand barrels, refreshing the 22 year high since 1990.

In the past May, crude oil futures in New York fell by 17%, the highest monthly decline since December 2008.

This gives

What impact does the chain bring?

Lack of support

The collapse of crude oil made PTA avoid the well.

Driven by crude oil, the prices of naphtha, PX and PTA have dropped considerably in recent years, bringing obvious cost shocks to the overall industrial chain of polyester filament.

The collapse of crude oil made PX price no longer fall. PX price fell 13% in a month. In June, PX Asian contract price was set at $1355, which was 195 lower than that in May. Sinopec PX6 month listing price was 10800 yuan / ton, lower 1000 yuan / ton compared with May.

On the other hand, domestic PX faces short supply in the short run.

According to the April PTA production accounting, the domestic PX surplus was 130 thousand tons in that month.

Monitoring data show that in the coming months, there will be new PX capacity release in China, and domestic PX supply will be relaxed in the short term, coupled with a considerable profit from PX production. It is estimated that there will still be a lot of downside in the late PX price.

The pmission of prices on the industrial chain has added to the very fragile PTA.

In the past month, the PTA1209 contract has fallen 790 points, or 9.23%, below the low of November 2011.

According to the insiders, the upstream PTA of polyester filament was hit by the price drop in May, but the production profit of the company has improved compared with the previous stage, and the PTA factory has a higher operating rate.

And in 2012, a year of domestic PTA capacity expansion, most of the new capacity was released at the same time when PTA prices were low.

From the overall situation of the PTA device, the release of the new capacity in the early stage is postponed, which is mainly affected by the low price of PTA and the low profit or loss of the company's production. In the later stage, once the spot price has improved or the profit has been repaired, the pressure of later production will gradually increase.

In the context of newly built capacity covetous eyes, although production profits are low at present, existing capacity is difficult to achieve even if there is a strong desire to maintain their market share.

Therefore, from the late installation situation, the market supply pressure in June is still larger.

Compared with futures prices, the spot PTA price has dropped significantly, but the overall decline and absolute amount is still less than the futures price.

Demand shortage

Buyers cautiously make the market worse.

From the monitoring data, we can see that now the downstream weaving factories have significantly reduced raw material procurement.

It is understood that due to the downstream textile industry commencement of the situation is not ideal, the demand for polyester filament also showed a significant decline, so that most polyester filament manufacturers production and sales rate has seen a certain decline, the market sales situation is still relatively dull.

This makes the adjustment of polyester filament price as a matter of course.

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Statistics show that in April, China's textile and apparel exports amounted to 18 billion 800 million US dollars, down 5.4% from the same period last year.

1~4 months, textile and apparel exports totaled $68 billion 820 million, an increase of 0.5% over the same period last year.

Statistics show that China's textile and clothing exports plunged from US $21 billion 500 million in January to less than US $10 billion in February, and rebounded to US $18 billion 800 million in March.

Exports in January and February were negative year-on-year growth, and 13.4% growth in March.

Negative growth occurred again in April.

The Canton Fair, known as the "wind vane" of China's export trade, also conveys relevant information to us: the 111st Canton Fair has seen a slight increase in the number of people attending the fair, and the cumulative export turnover has decreased by 4.8% and 2.3% respectively.

Judging from the closing situation of the Canton Fair, the shortage of long and single items will cause some pressure on the filament market. Because the profit has been repaired, if the downstream purchasing is weakening, the filament market will remain under pressure.

Zhejiang, Shandong, Fujian, Guangdong and other places.

The atmosphere is cold and the price of enterprises is declining. The prices of all varieties are down, and the focus of the paction is also declining, and the market volume is insufficient.

The production and sales rate of enterprises still stands at around 70%.

The stock of enterprises continued to increase, and the pressure of inventory increased. Therefore, the phenomenon of low price shipments increased gradually based on the consideration of capital pressure.

Some experts believe that the reason for the current market is that the raw material market has accelerated downslide under the influence of many bad factors in the PTA market. Two, the downstream market has entered the off-season, with the shortage of enterprise orders, the downtime rate of the industry rising, and the lack of procurement of polyester filament.

According to the insiders, the main reason for the drop in the price of polyester filament is the fact that the orders for early purchase are basically in place, and that the subsequent orders are basically not. This causes the weaving factories to generally lower the market outlook and become more cautious about raw material procurement.

From a comprehensive view of the upstream and downstream markets, the decline in the prices of upstream raw materials has directly affected the market situation of polyester filament, so that the market of polyester filament can not be supported by upstream raw materials, and there is no support downstream. Therefore, the price of polyester filament has been falling continuously since June (the monitoring table of polyester filament Market on 6 ~6 May 7th).

For the aftermarket, some experts analysis said that upstream raw materials showed "continued low" confidence in the polyester market, and the sales prospects of downstream market are dim. The starting rate of weaving enterprises and bomb companies has declined, making the market of polyester filament will leak in the current housing market and even rainy weather. Most professionals believe that the market will remain unchanged.

Price declines will continue.