June 2012 28 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

In June 27th, Zheng cotton market was in a low and narrow range, and the main 1301 contract closed at 19095 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day.

Volume reduced to 106566 hands, and positions increased by 3700 to 279498.

From the ranking of 20 positions held by Zheng cotton, the number of long positions increased by 3088 to 137334, and the number of short positions increased by 2099 to 170865.

There were 2974 cotton warehouse receipts in Zhengshang yesterday, 19 fewer than the previous trading day, with an effective forecast of 128.

Overnight ICE cotton contract in December was depressed by weak demand and weak inventory fundamentals. It fell 0.24 cents / pound or 0.35%. The market is waiting for the US cotton export report and planting report in the late week.

Spot, June 27th China

Price index fell 42 yuan / ton to 18207 yuan / ton.

The price of imported cotton FCindexM dropped by 0.73 cents / pound to 81.42 cents / pound compared with the previous trading day. The cost of import was 1% yuan / 13148 yuan / ton, the price of sliding cotton was 13687 yuan / ton, and the imported cotton was sliding tax less than 4520 yuan of domestic cotton per ton.

In the downstream market, the price of KC32S in the downstream of June 27th was flat at 24606 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day, and the JC40S price was flat at 30602 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day.

The situation of reducing production and limiting production is spreading.

In June 27th, the price of polyester staple fiber decreased by 100 yuan / ton to 9530 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day, and the market price of viscose staple fiber was 14650 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day.

Related information:

CICC has cut the growth rate of China's economy to 7.8% throughout the year.

Brazil's new flower sales nearly 70%, 12/13 area 25% reduction.

Us durable goods orders rose 1.1% in May, up from 0.4% of the expected value.

Summary: Cotton fundamentals, domestic cotton prices continued to fall, polyester staple and other cotton substitute fiber prices also weak callback, at present in the weak textile season, the downstream demand is insufficient, yarn market maintain weak.

Recently, large textile enterprises in Shandong will comb cotton yarn around 1000 yuan / ton, so that the overall yarn market pressure.

Outside cotton, India textile market demand increased, local cotton prices rose, local yarn prices rebounded last week in India, India's cotton market stabilization will help stabilize the domestic market.

It is understood that, due to the new year 20400 reserve price support, part of the cotton enterprises said the 7 and August cotton market.

Last night, the market was waiting for the EU summit to be held relatively cautiously. The US stock market has been driven up by the strong US economic data and the rise of US crude oil.

The US cotton market was depressed by the oversupply of weak fundamentals, and the market waited for two cotton reports on Thursday and Friday.

Yesterday, Zheng cotton market low concussion cross star, from the main position, the main contract 1301 bulls bargain entry obvious, but above the average system adhesion to the formation of price suppression, and KDJ index continued downward, volume decreased significantly, adverse to the rebound.

Zheng cotton market continues to continue the weak shock pattern, waiting for news guidance.

It is advisable to operate on the sidelines.

[MEIKO futures] weak fundamentals, Zheng cotton concerns rebound sustainability

Overnight, in June 27th, the positive economic data of the United States boosted the commodity market. ICE cotton futures once rose along with the peripheral market, but the market still had difficulty in getting rid of the pressure brought by the fundamentals, and the rising kinetic energy was difficult to sustain. Speculative selling in the late stage led to a close closing in December.

At present, there are not many good news in the market. Investors are waiting for the two major reports of the US cotton export and the actual broadcasting area to come out in order to point out the direction for the market. Cotton prices will continue to oscillate in the near future.

In the international market, in June 27th, the price of China's main port of import cotton was greatly reduced, and the varieties generally fell 1.75 cents.

Judging from the market situation, although investors believe that the US cotton planting area will have a larger decline this year, but the slowdown in global economic growth is difficult to effectively stimulate consumption, and the pressure of cotton supply will continue to have a negative impact on cotton prices.

It is understood that China's port is still squeezing a large number of consignments of cotton, and few people are asking for it, so cotton will remain weak in the near future.

Domestic market, 27, domestic cotton spot prices in the deterioration of the European debt and the fundamentals of the domestic weak base fell, the deal was deserted.

The date of repayment of the cotton purchase loan is approaching. Some cotton hoarding enterprises pledge the cotton to the bank and the trading market to finance the loan repayment. The market's starting up of the downstream cotton consumption in the later period and the anticipation of the national policy regulation are still the key factors leading to the cotton price trend.

Spot quotation. In June 27th, the price of C/A cotton in the US was 87.10 (cents / pound), and the general trade port delivery price was 14598 yuan / ton (calculated according to the sliding tax). The Australian cotton quotation was 89.85, the general trade port delivery price was 15024 yuan / ton, the Uzbekistan cotton quotation was 90.65, the general trade port delivery price was 15156 yuan / ton, the India cotton quotation was 81.35, the general trade port delivery price was 13699 yuan / ton.

National cotton price A index 19393 yuan / ton, down 28 yuan; B index 18455 yuan, down 22 yuan.

Market analysis, the domestic spot market is still light, the import price parity makes the turnover is still mainly outside cotton, but the quota is small, the price is high, a large number of foreign cotton is difficult to customs clearance, thus supporting the spot market, the market is in the weak fundamentals and the optimistic expectations of the game.

Recently, some varieties have seen a sharp increase in the number of stocks. This shows that there are more differences at the stage. There is also a possibility of slowing down the rhythm of Zheng cotton because of the rebound of the surrounding commodities.

Overnight cotton cotton bottom trend unchanged, Zheng cotton short rally trend support 1907019500 near the trend pressure.

Operation, the short line rally market 19085- gap rolling operation, trend judgement depends on 19500 near.