July 23, 2012 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

[Hongyuan

Zheng cotton has support under pressure.

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20275 yuan / ton; 229 level 19412 yuan / ton; 328 level 18490 yuan / ton; 428 grade 17581 yuan / ton.

Domestic textiles: polyester staple fiber 9730 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 15050 yuan / ton; C32S price 25380 yuan / ton.

2. domestic stock: on the 20 day, domestic cotton spot prices continued to rise slightly, with a slight increase in turnover, but turnover was still small. The market mentality of textile enterprises was slightly warmer. In order to ensure product stability, textile mills still need to purchase real estate cotton for cotton blending and use cotton.

The prices of raw materials such as cotton and polyester have been rising. The downstream textile products have not yet risen. The quotation of pure cotton yarn is basically stable, and the price of polyester cotton yarn and cotton yarn has rebounded.

3. imported cotton: at present, the bonded cotton inventory is still full of cotton. There are few people who are eager to return the funds to reduce cotton sales. On the one hand, there are not many enterprises with quotas, and on the other hand, the order of textile mills is insufficient, thus reducing the amount of cotton.

From the overall situation, there is no sign of improvement in market fundamentals, but only part of the main cotton producing weather factors temporarily support external cotton.

4. Cotton Growth: last week (July, 13-19), the main producing areas in the mainland are mainly hot weather. Some areas are sunny and rainy, with plenty of light and suitable soil moisture. The new cotton is growing with gratifying growth. At the moment, cotton is in flower and boll stage, and some cotton plants have peaches at the bottom.

Xinjiang area is mainly sunny weather, hail disaster is encountered in some areas, and the situation of new cotton is seriously affected. In July, cotton production is at a critical stage. Cotton producers in various producing areas are stepping up their efforts to prevent and control the field.

5.ICE cotton: in July 20th, the European debt crisis once again stirred the market. Because of Spain's comprehensive bailout, the US dollar index rebounded sharply, crude oil and other commodities fell, and the grain market continued to rise.

ICE cotton kept oscillation trend, December contract closed slightly higher 31 points.

Summary:

The two major factors that affect domestic cotton prices are demand and policy. There is no substantial change in demand.

On the 18 day, the China reserve cotton company's cotton reserve business meeting once again made clear that the new year's policy of open storage and storage is not limited, so as to boost market confidence.

In the near future, Zheng cotton is still difficult to get out of the way. There are 19700 nearby pressure and important average line support.

From the midline point of view, Zheng cotton's burst pressure position is a big probability event.

[German futures] blocked at the top of Zheng cotton rebounded

On Friday, CF1301 opened up and left. CF1301 closed more than 18.5 hands, and its positions dropped sharply.

CF1301 closed at 19460 yuan / ton, down 15 yuan / ton, reduced 18554 hands; in July 20th, China's imported cotton (FC Index M) 89.11 cents / pound, up 0.61 cents / pound, 1% yuan tariff reduced price 14326 yuan / ton, sliding price conversion price 15096 yuan / ton.

According to New York's July 20th news, the ICE cotton futures rose third trading days on Friday, boosted by the surge in the grain market, and the stock of the exchange fell to its low level in February, which led investors to worry about supply earlier.

ICE cotton contract in December closed up 0.43%, at 72.94 cents per pound.

In July 20th, the cotton trading market of the national cotton trading market reached 19660 tons, an increase of 5480 tons from the previous day, an increase of 1000 tons of orders, and a total purchase of 154500 tons.

On the 20 day, most of the contracts in the market were opened, and the intraday highs dropped.

On the basic level, the market has been rebounded in recent two days, but the weakness in the consumer market at the middle end continues to put pressure on cotton prices, and it also makes enterprises return to rational thinking.

On the whole, cotton price has upward appeal, but the risk of paction has also been enlarged.

On Friday, Zheng cotton went up and down, hit pressure in the resistance area, and had the initiative to leave the field. It waited for the main force to choose the direction and the 19200-19700 interval.

Fundamentals have not changed much, and downstream demand is still sluggish.

Today's operation recommends, wait and see, CF1301 reference price range is 19300-19600.

[MEIKO futures] market concerns limited period cotton narrow fluctuations

Overnight, July 20th.

Agitating the market again, because of Spain's comprehensive bailout, the US dollar index rebounded sharply, crude oil and other commodities fell, and the grain market continued to rise.

ICE cotton kept oscillation trend, December contract closed slightly higher 31 points.

The external environment has little effect on ICE cotton, mainly because of the low market concern, and the cotton price is also difficult to break through the oscillation interval of 70-75 cents.

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On the news side, the national cotton market monitoring system launched a cotton growing survey nationwide on 17-30 June 2012. The sample involved 15 cotton planting provinces (autonomous regions), 90 cotton planting counties (cities, farms), and 686 thousand cotton fields with 4379 designated cotton planting information links households.

It shows that since June, the main cotton producing areas in the country are basically normal, and cotton growth has little impact on diseases and insect pests, and the picking period is expected to be in normal range.

In 2012, the average cotton yield per unit area in China was estimated to be 95.5 kg / mu, 0.6% higher than the previous year, and the total output of 6 million 857 thousand tons, a decrease of 9.1%.

In the international market, 20 days, the price of China's main cotton imports rose slightly, and most varieties rose 0.75 cents.

At present, the bonded cotton inventory is still full of cotton, and there are few people who are eager to return the funds to reduce the sale price of cotton merchants. On the one hand, there are not many enterprises with quotas, and on the other hand, the order of textile mills is insufficient, thus reducing the amount of cotton.

From the overall situation, there is no sign of improvement in market fundamentals, but only part of the main cotton producing weather factors temporarily support external cotton.

Domestic market, 20, domestic cotton spot prices continued to rise slightly, slightly increased turnover, but turnover is still not large, textile enterprises purchasing market mentality slightly warmer, in order to ensure product stability, textile mills still need to buy real estate cotton for cotton blending, with the use of cotton.

The prices of raw materials such as cotton and polyester have been rising. The downstream textile products have not yet risen. The quotation of pure cotton yarn is basically stable, and the price of polyester cotton yarn and cotton yarn has rebounded.

Spot quotation. In July 20th, the price of C/A cotton in the US was 89.60 (cents / pound), and the general trade port delivery price was 15286 yuan / ton (calculated according to the sliding tax). The Australian cotton quotation was 93.85, the general trade port delivery price was 15846 yuan / ton, the Uzbekistan cotton quotation was 92.80, the general trade port delivery price was 15705 yuan / ton, the India cotton quotation was 85.85, the general trade port delivery price was 14812 yuan / ton.

The national cotton price A index was 19417 yuan / ton, up 2 yuan; the B index was 18498 yuan, up 4 yuan.

Market analysis, the parties concerned said there was no plan to throw or reserve import quotas to ease market pressure, and the Central Reserve said that the next year would not limit the purchase and storage.

The good news of double market offers a boost to cotton market, but consumption is still the key factor restricting the uplink of cotton prices, so the height will be limited.

US cotton continued to shake sideways, the platform has not yet been broken, and zhengmian 1301 is fluctuating in the 19000-19725 interval.

Operation, the 19000-19725 interval concussion, temporarily short trading.

[Huaan futures] there are still more cautious pressures on the top of Zheng cotton.

Key points:

1, a region in Spain called for gold aid on Friday, leaving investors worried about the European debt crisis and putting pressure on commodities and financial markets.

2, the US Department of agriculture's July report predicts that 2012/13 will produce 24 million 780 thousand tons of global cotton output, 23 million 727 thousand tons of global consumption and 15 million 762 thousand tons of global inventory at the end of the year, a reduction of 460 thousand tons from the previous month, an increase of 1 million 244 thousand tons compared with 2011/12, an increase of 8.5%.

New York's July 20th cotton futures rose third trading days on Friday, boosted by a surge in the grain market, and the stock of the exchange fell to its low level in February, making investors worried about supplies earlier, ICE said.

Cotton prices ignored the popularity of commodity and financial markets.

The December cotton contract closed up 0.43%, at 72.94 cents a pound, reaching a 73.29 day high at the end of the session.

Early comment: the rumors of dumping and storage were denied by the relevant people of central reserve cotton and limited to boost market confidence. With the stabilization of the spot market and the gradual decrease of market resources, the market was more firm in the confidence that the cotton price would gradually become more reliable to the purchase and storage price. In the first place, the market would continue to hold more. In addition, the futures market zhengmian 1209 and the matching market MA1209 price difference reached 280 yuan / ton. Because of the convenience of the price warehouse, buying futures trading and matching is purely risk-free arbitrage, and short-term profits are considerable.

The main 1301 contracts continue to be held cautiously, and 19300 of the stop loss is near.