Dialectically Judge And Understand The Policy Of Releasing And Storing Cotton In Cotton Market

Don't worry too much about cotton market Storage , but always pay attention to the policy. Regardless of whether or not to place and how many to place, the relevant departments indicate that they will not deliberately suppress the market. On the market side, after all, the purchase and storage are close at hand, and the price shows that it is not willing to go down. The bottom in early June is still instructive. Operationally, the market price will be further integrated with the purchase and storage price.

Another month has passed, and the euro area is still not much better. The Spanish banks asked the government for money, which once again confirmed that the market's pessimism towards Europe is difficult to fade. At the end of the second quarter, the recent financial reports of American enterprises, although seemingly better than Wall Street analysts' expectations. But in fact, this is just a game played by analysts and enterprises in collusion. Analysts deliberately give a lower expected value so that the actual value of the financial report is relatively good, thus boosting the market. The recent Federal Reserve's economic forecast report has lowered the US economic growth and inflation expectations for the next few years. The US unemployment rate has remained above 8% for more than 40 months. Although the US government's attention to the unemployment rate is well known, QE3 is still nowhere to be seen. Is it possible that the US has become numb to the high unemployment rate? The market's attitude towards the new round of quantitative easing has gradually changed from expectation to wait-and-see and empty. Even if QE3 is mentioned occasionally Cotton market And bulk commodities.

In the context of weak consumption and oversupply in the new year, the cotton market lacks the support to do more. The only benefit that the market expects is the policy banner - the new year's stock collection plan. However, when we saw the declining cotton coming to September for a long time, the news that the country would release its reserves came out of the market, which led to another change in the market in the second half of the year. This is one of them. The stock release rumor ranges from several hundred thousand tons to one million tons. Although the specific arrangement time is unpredictable, the policy theme should be to stabilize market confidence, rather than give the textile industry a heavy blow when the raw material purchase is slightly improving and the peak season is coming. Under normal circumstances, new cotton will be launched in succession at the end of August, and batch listing is generally from September to October. According to the latest cotton inventory report, by the end of June, China's commercial inventory of used cotton was slightly higher than 1 million tons. If the average monthly cotton consumption is about 700000 tons, there may be a supply gap of about 1 million tons in the current one to two months before the cotton is put on the market in batches. If the value is used as a reference for proper storage, it is to ensure supply, not to deliberately suppress cotton prices, which is based on the quantity of storage. If we pay attention to the deposit price, it is estimated that it will not be far from the current spot price and the contract price in September. It is also normal to increase supply at the turn of the new year and the old year. With this calculation, you can have a dialectical judgment and understanding of the storage rumors and the quantity, without too much panic.

Secondly, as one of the major cotton exporting countries in the world, India has heard the news of policy changes, which is bound to increase the uncertainty of the long short game. Although the market has been prepared for the changes of Indian policies, the fundamentals have been calm for more than half a year, so the short-term impact is still inevitable.

There are also climate factors. At present, the production in the Northern Hemisphere is basically determined. It is suspected of hype to talk too much about the weather. It is recommended to be cautious. If the drought in the United States has not spread to the southern cotton producing areas, then over exaggerating the weather is pure hype. Some conditions of the fundamentals have not changed significantly, mainly playing a negative role.

Therefore, it is suggested that bulls can take the bottom price established in June as a reference and pay attention to the timing of layout. Multiple orders and batches are involved. Before the confirmation of the deposit message, the periodic bottom of 18200 yuan can be involved in light positions. If the release and storage information is released, Cotton price Go down to increase your position. In addition, activists can use short-term deposit rumors to short against the moving average system or the first line of 19300 yuan, but they should close before the end of August.

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