The Economic Growth Rate Of China'S Textile Industry Will Continue To Fall This Year

Supported by the domestic demand market, China spin The main production and marketing indicators of the industry will still achieve growth. However, under the circumstances that international market demand is difficult to improve significantly, domestic production costs continue to rise, and market competition is becoming increasingly fierce, it is expected that the export pressure of the textile industry will remain prominent, which will drive the growth rate of industry production and sales to further decline.

Sun Huaibin, spokesman of China Textile Industry Federation, said on the 30th that since 2012, domestic demand for textiles and clothing has slowed down compared with the same period last year due to the slowdown of domestic macroeconomic growth. However, at present, the income of urban and rural residents has maintained a steady growth. In the first half of the year, the real growth rate of per capita disposable income of urban residents and per capita cash income of rural residents reached 9.7% and 12.4% respectively, providing a fundamental driving force for the growth of domestic demand. On the whole, although the annual growth rate of clothing consumption will still be lower than the level of the previous year, it will show a trend of gradual growth, and the driving effect on the textile industry will also gradually increase.

Sun Huaibin stressed that the decline in external demand leading to insufficient orders of export enterprises is an important factor affecting the operation of the textile industry. According to relevant statistics, in the first half of 2012, the EU imported textiles from the world clothing The total amount of textile and clothing imports in the United States was close to zero growth, while Japan's textile and clothing imports grew only 2.2% year on year, down 10.8 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The international market demand was generally depressed. Affected by the continued deterioration of the European debt crisis, the current recovery of the international market still faces high risks. The latest forecast released by the International Monetary Fund in mid July reduced the global economic growth rate in 2012 by 0.1 percentage points to 3.5%, indicating that the prospects for global economic recovery are not optimistic. It is expected that the international market will continue to be depressed in 2012, and the textile industry still lacks the market power to stabilize and improve its exports.

Sun Huaibin believes that since 2012, the domestic cotton price has always been higher than the international market, and the price gap has been widening. As of the middle of August, the domestic cotton price has been more than 5000 yuan per ton higher than the international market, and the price gap has expanded 67% over the beginning of the year, causing a serious decline in the competitiveness of China's cotton textile industry chain and the deterioration of enterprise benefits. According to the market supply and demand situation, it is expected that in the near future, the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton is difficult to be significantly reduced through market adjustment. In addition, a new round of temporary cotton storage policy will be launched in China, and the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton will still exist, which is the primary factor affecting the operation of the textile industry.

Sun Huaibin pointed out that cotton The price trend is not clear at present, and it is difficult to fundamentally reverse the negative growth trend of China's textile industry. However, with the gradual recovery of domestic demand growth and the decline of the statistical base in the same period of last year, it is expected that the industry's production and sales growth will gradually decline.