The Recession Of Textile And Clothing Industry Has Dragged Down The Cotton Price This Year

　　 spin The recession of the clothing industry has dragged down the price of cotton this year

In the harvest season of another year, new cotton in Xinjiang and all over the country began to come on the market sporadically, and cotton farmers found that the price of cotton this year was particularly low! The reporter learned that the purchase price of seed cotton in Wuhan was only 3.9~4 yuan per kilogram, a sharp drop compared with 2010. Farmers worked hard to plant cotton for a year, and the income per mu was only about 500 yuan. The continued decline in cotton prices is mainly due to the blocked export of downstream textile and clothing industries, and the serious decline in export orders of many enterprises. Experts estimate that the worst may not yet come for the textile and clothing industries.

Market: The purchase price of new cotton has dropped significantly

In a small town in Caidian District, Wuhan City, cotton and corn are crops often planted by local people. Aunt Zhao, a cotton farmer, told reporters that her family had planted more than two acres of cotton this year, but her cotton had not yet been picked. Yesterday morning, she was still applying pesticides to cotton. However, some farmers' cotton has been listed sporadically, and Aunt Zhao also hurried to inquire about the purchase price this year to see how much harvest can be achieved this year.

However, she was surprised to hear the result. The price quoted by the cotton collector was only 3.9~4 yuan per kilogram, lower than last year, and significantly lower than the year before last. Aunt Zhao's cotton was sold for 5 yuan the year before last. After Aunt Zhao sold it out, the market price continued to rise, rising to nearly 7 yuan at the highest.

For people in the cotton industry, the low purchase price this year did not surprise them. In fact, the cotton price has fallen for nearly two consecutive years since it hit a record high at the end of 2010. The cotton futures price of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen from more than 34000 yuan/ton at that time to less than 20000 yuan/ton at present.

Industry:

The textile and clothing industry is not at its worst

"If cotton prices want to rise, we can only expect the textile and clothing industries to recover," Sun Liwu said. The demand for cotton in China this year is 9.8 million tons, the cotton output in 2011/2012 is 7.2 million tons, and the import volume is 3.36 million tons.

However, this year's demand has shrunk significantly, and is expected to be less than 8 million tons. At present, the output of 2012/2013 is still uncertain, but the output of Xinjiang is expected to be 3.2 million tons, an increase of about 120000 tons over last year. Xinjiang's cotton output accounts for more than 40% of the national cotton output. While demand declined, cotton imports increased significantly this year.

The substantial increase in cotton imports is mainly due to the current import Cotton price It is far lower than the price of domestic cotton. At present, the CIF price of imported cotton is 3000 yuan/ton cheaper than that of domestic cotton. Recently, the price difference has narrowed. At the peak in May and June, the price difference reached 5500 yuan/ton, which led to a significant increase in cotton imports this year. "Therefore, the cotton market this year as a whole is a pattern of shrinking demand and loose supply. Next, the country will purchase and store cotton, which will to some extent push up cotton prices, but it is estimated that the increase will not be too high. The real recovery of cotton prices still needs to wait for the recovery of the textile and clothing industries." Sun Liwu said. However, the industry's view on the textile and clothing industry is not optimistic. When talking about the outlook for the clothing industry in the next year, the relevant person in charge of Baima Clothing City said frankly that "the worst has not yet come". Cai Huijuan said that at present, the ordering in June next year has just ended, but the winter clothing consumption in October has not yet started

Interview: What is the reaction of all parties to the current cotton market?

　 peasant household:

The profit of planting cotton is getting thinner and thinner

Aunt Zhao expressed her disappointment at such a purchase price. Aunt Zhao told reporters that the weather in Wuhan was bad this year. There was too little rain during the growth of cotton, so a lot of cotton was dried up. It was estimated that the output would be less than last year. In addition, the purchase price of cotton this year was not good, and other costs were rising. It was basically unprofitable to grow cotton.

Aunt Zhao calculated an account for the reporter and said that she could only earn more than 1000 yuan a year, with an average of more than 500 yuan per mu of land, which was not enough for a meal for urban people. {page_break}

　 for export:

Clothing orders fell by two-thirds

"The main reason for the continuous downturn in cotton prices is that the textile and clothing industries have been very depressed in the past two years due to the macroeconomic impact." Sun Liwu, a cotton analyst from Zhuochuang Information, believes that China's demand for cotton last year was 9.8 million tons, and this year's demand is expected to be less than 8 million tons.

The reporter learned that the export situation of the clothing industry this year is very difficult. Boss Zhang, who opened a factory in Fujian, has been engaged in cotton processing and children's clothing business for ten years, This year, the inventory of their factory has increased by about 30%. "The increase of inventory means that the sales volume has declined by 30%. However, 60% of the produced cloth is used for processing into children's clothes, 40% is exported. After the increase of inventory, we can't use up the cloth for our own use, and the export is not ideal."

According to the relevant person in charge of Baima Wholesale Market, in the past, many Iraqi businessmen purchased all kinds of clothes from China and then shipped them to Dubai for wholesale. But this year, Iraqi channel merchants were overstocked. An Iranian importer's order volume this year was two thirds less, mainly because the country's currency depreciated significantly against the RMB, It directly doubled the cost of wholesale in China.

　 Domestic sales: a sharp slowdown in growth

Domestic sales have not shown an obvious downward trend, but the growth rate has slowed down significantly. "In the past years, our sales volume has increased by an average of 25%~30%, but this year's order level is basically flat." Jie Chunfeng, who specializes in brand clothing sales, has opened a special clothing processing factory in Hangzhou, "although cotton The price has been reduced, but we can hardly feel that our costs are still rising. " According to his introduction, with the rise of labor costs, the improvement in employee benefits has far exceeded the impact of the slight decline in fabric costs. "We basically do not feel the impact of the decline in cotton raw materials on costs." Cai Huijuan, a brand agent focusing on the domestic market, told reporters that, "We just finished the order meeting in the spring and summer of next year. According to the current situation, the order volume has increased by 30% on average, but the current order volume cannot reflect the current situation in a timely manner."

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