On September 10, 2012, Institutional Trading ----- Cotton Futures

　 [Hongyuan futures ]Continue the idea of bargain hunting and long trading based on the 20 day moving average

main points

1. Price report: domestic lint: 129 grade 20499 yuan/ton; Grade 229 19628 yuan/ton; Level 328 18752 yuan/ton; 428 level 17914 yuan/ton. Domestic textiles: polyester staple fiber 10390 yuan/ton; Viscose staple fiber 15780 yuan/ton; The price of C32S is 25630 yuan/ton.

2. Domestic spot price: On the 6th, the spot price of domestic cotton continued to rise, and the dumping and storage continued. With the increase of qualified traders, the level of bidding activity may gradually increase, and the transaction price may rise. Especially in the context of the lack of low-cost resources in the market, Xinjiang tertiary cotton at a price below 19000 yuan/ton is still attractive.

3. Imported cotton: On the 7th, the quotation of imported cotton in China's main ports generally rose, with American cotton rising 0.3 cents, Brazilian cotton rising 0.45 cents, and other varieties rising 0.75 cents. From the current point of view, affected by the dumping and stockpiling, the turnover of imported cotton has been relatively flat recently, and the increase of cotton supply in the domestic market has put pressure on foreign cotton sales.

4. Transaction of reserve cotton: On September 7, China Reserve Cotton Management Corporation planned to list 45194.498 tons of reserve cotton for auction, and 24459.2166 tons were actually sold, with a transaction rate of 54.12%. On that day, the average transaction grade was 3.11, the average length was 27.86, the weighted average transaction price was 18566 yuan/ton, which was 18656 yuan/ton (public weight) when converted into 328 cotton, up 7 yuan/ton from September 6, and 97 yuan/ton lower than the national cotton price B index (CNCotton B) of 18753 yuan/ton on that day.

5. ICE cotton: On September 7, due to the lower than expected growth of US non farm jobs in August, the market's expectation of the Federal Reserve's implementation of a new round of quantitative easing policy rose, and the dollar index fell sharply. Stimulated by the peripheral market, the fund continued to long cotton, pushing the contract in December up slightly.

Summary:

In the downturn of global economic growth cotton The three-tier structure of global cotton prices is difficult to change in the case that the long-standing problem of demand is difficult to solve for a long time in the future. Qualified cotton processors play the role of cotton movers between the social circulation price and the purchase and storage price of cotton in China. Their driving force for transportation is to make money. When the price difference is not enough to cover the cost, the driving force for transportation will disappear. In this sense, before the global demand for cotton becomes significantly better, China's social circulating cotton price will move closer to the 20400 purchase and storage price, but closing does not mean that it can be reached. In terms of operation, we continue to follow the idea of bargain hunting and long buying on the 20th moving average. Recently, American cotton has little influence on Zheng cotton.

[Wanda Futures] Strong rise in peripheral markets supported cotton price rebound

The employment data of August released by the United States was worse than expected, which stimulated investors' expectation that the Federal Reserve might launch a new round of bond purchase as early as next week. The dollar in the international market fell, and the price of commodities such as crude oil and gold rose sharply, benefiting the cotton market. At the same time, China's 20400 yuan/ton purchase and storage policy will be officially launched next week, and the benefit of ICE cotton will continue to rise due to the rise in the external market. The main contract in December ended up 0.31 cents to 76.3 cents/pound, continuing the rebound trend, and continuing to challenge the 77.5 cents/pound pressure. However, China sold millions of tons of reserves, while the Indian cotton region ushered in rainfall, which put pressure on the short-term market, Take a cautious view of the rebound and focus on the 75-77.5 cents/pound horizontal area.

On Friday, ICE cotton closed on a small positive note. The main contract in December closed stably above the short-term moving average. The medium and short-term moving average system maintained a good bullish upward arrangement, and the rebound trend remained unchanged. However, KD and MACD indicators have a tendency of forming a short position. The MACD indicator green column grows and the market weakens. It is expected that the ICE cotton contract in December will continue in the horizontal area of 75-77.5 cents/pound in the future, so it is appropriate to be cautious about the rebound.

Zheng Mian will maintain a rebound pattern because the 20400 yuan/ton purchase and storage policy will be inspired next week. The 1305 contract may face the support of no registered warehouse receipt and capital inflow and maintain a strong pattern. If the purchase and storage policy is not unexpected, and the unlimited policy is well implemented, the contract will challenge the pressure level of 20000 yuan/ton. However, for the 1301 contract, the dumping of millions of tons may lead textile enterprises to basically not purchase cotton in the next three months. Zheng Mian's inventory pressure of more than 50000 tons will affect the 1301 contract. The withdrawal of funds and the inventory pressure will keep the contract weak, and the trend of near weakness and far strength will continue. Be cautious to hold many orders of 1305 contract, but if the support of 19700 yuan/ton fails, many orders will stop loss and increase the number of empty orders of 1301 contract, The target is 19000 yuan/ton. {page_break}

[Maike Futures] Stock collection is about to start; Zheng Mian's boost is limited

On the overnight external market, on September 7, due to the lower than expected growth of US non farm jobs in August, the market's expectation of the Federal Reserve's implementation of a new round of quantitative easing policy rose, and the dollar index fell sharply. Stimulated by the peripheral market, the fund continued to long cotton, pushing the contract in December up slightly. However, the market fundamentals are still empty, and investors' attention will shift to the USDA September report in the future.

On the news side, 1. The U.S. Department of Agriculture released the U.S. cotton export report from August 24-30, 2012: that week, the net contracted volume of U.S. upland cotton exports in 2012/13 was 19000 tons; The export shipment volume of American upland cotton is 47400 tons, mainly to China (15600 tons), and the net contracted export volume of Pima cotton in 2012/13 is 6800 tons; The export shipment volume of Pima cotton is 4000 tons. 2. According to the 2012 Interim Cotton Storage Plan, this year's cotton storage is expected to start on September 10.

In the international market, on September 7, the quotation of imported cotton in China's main ports generally rose, with American cotton rising 0.3 cents, Brazilian cotton rising 0.45 cents, and other varieties rising 0.75 cents. From the current point of view, affected by the dumping and stockpiling, the turnover of imported cotton has been relatively flat recently, and the increase of cotton supply in the domestic market has put pressure on foreign cotton sales. The reduction of rainfall in India this year will not significantly reduce cotton production, and the exportable quantity is expected to be guaranteed. Cotton merchants may continue to seize the opportunity to sell, and the price should also be discussed.

In the domestic market, the collection and storage is about to open, and cotton enterprises make preparations in advance. They plan to adopt "grading, grading, and stacking" purchase. Seed cotton with more than 15% moisture content will be rejected, and high lint percentage, high quality, and low moisture content will be purchased at a high price. In addition, as the loan support of commercial banks and credit cooperatives for cotton purchase has declined significantly this year, the proportion of self raised funds of ginning enterprises is not high, and the loan of Agricultural Development Bank of China is only for a few enterprises, so accelerating the turnover of purchase funds through delivery and storage or spot sales is the main operation mode of cotton enterprises in the early stage.

Spot quotation: on September 7, 91.65 (US cents/pound) for American C/A cotton, converted to 15585 yuan/ton (calculated as sliding allowance tax) for general trade port delivery price in RMB; Australian cotton is 97.10 yuan, which is 16323 yuan/ton for general trade port delivery; West Africa cotton is 89.10 yuan, which is 15255 yuan/ton at the general trade port; 88.10 Indian cotton, converted to RMB 15128 yuan/ton for general trade port delivery. The domestic cotton price continued to rise, and the national cotton price A index representing the mainland's 229 grade cotton price was 19628 yuan/ton; The national cotton price B index representing 328 cotton prices in the mainland was 18753 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan.

According to the market analysis, the domestic cotton purchase and storage in the new year is about to start, which will support the domestic cotton price in stages. However, from the perspective of policy incentives this year, they are weaker than last year, so it is expected that the upside space for cotton prices brought by the good news is also very limited. From the trend, the huge global inventory and the substitution of chemical fiber will form a long-term suppression. The band is stable in the middle and higher, and the long-term trend pressure remains unchanged. On Friday, ICE cotton rose slightly. From the perspective of the market, the bottom of the futures price gradually rose.

Operationally, Zheng Mian 1301 contract focuses on the upward pressure of 19700, and the band is held cautiously.

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