Textile And Garment Industry: Domestic And Foreign Demand Has Not Yet Improved, And Industry Recovery Is Unlikely.

Event

The latest domestic sales and export data in August showed that domestic market remained sluggish and overseas demand remained depressed.

[domestic marketing - China business information center] 50 major retail enterprises in August.

And clothing retail sales grew by 11.47% and 12.04% respectively, up 2.78 and 5 percentage points respectively compared with last month.

[export - Customs General Administration] in 1-8 months, China's textile and apparel exports totaled 161 billion 995 million US dollars, down 0.70% compared to the same period last year. The growth rate of -0.21% compared with that of 1-7 months continued to decline 0.49 percentage points, and the drop was further widened.

Commentary

The slowdown in growth in domestic and foreign demand began in the first half of 2011.

The adjustment of structural adjustment and the adjustment of the global economic operation.

Domestic demand has slowed down since the 2 quarter of 2011, and the monthly growth rate since 2012 has basically fluctuated at a level of 10%:

The slowdown in textile and clothing consumption started last year is mainly due to the close relationship between consumption and the economy, overoptimism of enterprises, oversupply of shops, and high demand for products to curb demand. These factors take time to change. From a micro perspective, many enterprises have gone through a long "bull market" and lack of awareness of crisis. At the beginning of the year, they realized the market situation. Therefore, the lag of business strategy adjustment has increased the severity of the crisis to a certain extent, which is the main reason for the sluggish consumption of domestic textile and clothing.

In 2012 1-8, 50 key large-scale retail enterprises nationwide.

The average annual growth rate of retail sales is 10.8%, compared with the average growth rate of 25.3% in 2011 and the growth rate of over 20% in previous years.

In 1-7 months of 2012, the average monthly retail sales volume and retail sales volume of hundreds of large retail enterprises were 13.27% and 2.76% respectively.

These growth rate stems partly from the increase in discount promotions.

Overseas demand has been impacted since the beginning of 2011, and the monthly export volume of China's textile and clothing industry has shown a marked slowdown.

In 2012, the cumulative export volume declined 1-8 in the same period of 0.7%, of which clothing exports were slightly better than textiles. In 1-7, the total export growth rate to the EU and the US was -10% and 11% respectively.

The US subprime mortgage crisis and the European debt crisis broke out, which hit the largest export area of our traditional textile industry (the United States and the European Union). At present, although the US economy has recovered, the pfer of the global textile and garment production base has begun and a large number of orders have gone to Southeast Asia and India and other countries. The demand for Chinese products is still insufficient, and the continuing European debt crisis is still a blow to the consumption enthusiasm of the European Union.

There is little hope of revival in the textile industry: the future of textile and clothing exports has gone through. In the future, even if the European and American economies recover, the growth rate will not rise significantly. In the domestic market, when the textile and clothing consumption declines, the first half is the inventory stage, that is, the brand dealers and the channel Ku Cunming is rising. However, the industry chain will always be based on the bull market experience in the past decades, and think that this is only a small wave band. It will continue to maintain a certain amount of orders. With the prolonged market downturn, it will exceed the expectation of the industry chain. We believe that the industry year