2013 Spring And Summer Clothing Order Meeting: Men'S Wear Industry Growth Rate Is Slow, "Small Businesses" High-Speed Growth

The order meeting is usually regarded as the coming year.

The wind vane of the market, along with the decline of the garment industry terminal growth, the 2013 spring and summer clothing order meeting data has aroused the concern of all parties.

At present, the major domestic companies

The clothing companies have been very cautious about the data of the order meeting. As of now, only the Pathfinder has made public the 2013 spring and summer order meeting, and the other garment listed companies have been kept tight lipped.

Although most brands have announced that the order data will not be finished yet, some researchers have estimated the ordering situation of many clothing brand listed companies in spring and summer next year through on-site research and market terminal sales.

A number of brokerage firms' research data on the 2013 spring and summer ordering conference are more consistent. The two key point of the core is that the growth rate of the high-end brand of men's clothing that has been generally optimistic about the growth is obviously slower than that of 2012. The average growth rate dropped from 30% to 10% left and right.

Such orders will maintain a relatively high growth rate, with an average increase of 45%~50%.

The order of 2013 spring and summer has split up, which will have a greater impact on the clothing market next year.

According to CICC data, with the continuous downturn in the retail market of consumer goods, the growth rate of clothing retail sales has also dropped.

The most obvious impact this year is men's wear brands.

Guang Fa securities analyst Lin Hai said that the slowdown in the growth of men's clothing brands in the second tier and the same stores is more obvious. On the one hand, the impact of the downward trend of macroeconomic growth is low, and consumer confidence is not enough; on the other hand, it is influenced by seasonal and weather factors.

At present, the order of the seven wolves has been all over. Yen Yan, the Securities Department of the company, told reporters that "although the order has ended, the specific statistical results have not yet come out, but in general, the order in 2012 will surely be much better than that in 2013."

CIC securities analyst Guo Haiyan analysis pointed out that the seven wolves are also facing the pressure of weak clothing terminal consumption. The same store growth rate slowed down in the first half of the year. In addition to 4 and May, the same month growth rate in other months of the first half of the year was a single digit.

The sales rate is 5 percentage points lower than the normal level in previous years.

As the overall inventory level of the company is relatively healthy, the implementation of the order is basically not affected, ensuring the steady growth of the company's revenue.

According to China Gold data, the number of seven wolf stores in the first half of the year was only 5 net increase, one is because the company closed the blue label and children's clothing store of 80~90's poor performance, two is the first half of the first half of the company's off-season. It is expected that the speed of opening in the second half of the year will be significantly improved.

Bohai securities analyst Chu Wen pointed out that seven wolf sampling shop data showed that the overall growth rate of the same store slowed down, which means that if the terminal inventory backlog can not be promptly digested, then the future sales will decline.

In the field of men's clothing, although the card slave road has a higher gross margin guarantee, it is still affected by terminal gliding.

Huatai Securities Chengyuan pointed out that the growth rate of card slave road in the two quarter slowed slightly, mainly affected by the overall decline in consumption, but still maintained more than 5% of the same store growth. The growth rate of the shop was in line with expectations.

A slight slowdown in growth in the two quarter of this year is mainly due to industrial factors such as terminal consumer spending and cold spring.

The news bird also entered the order meeting stage, but the staff of the company's securities department did not want to disclose more.

The order of nine Mu Wang will start late. There are still three orders that will not start.

CICC data show that, under the influence of terminal consumption depression and inventory pressure, the order growth of the birds at the end of August will grow at 15%~16%, lower than expected. The company plans to leave some leeway to the franchisee at the order meeting, increasing the overall revenue growth by increasing the proportion of the later supplement, and eventually increasing the revenue growth to about 25%.

However, in the case of no sales of terminal sales, there is little possibility of substantial growth.

Shi Hongmei, an analyst at Orient Securities, said that in order to alleviate the pressure of the 2011 fall and winter inventory of the franchisees, the company had increased returns to the franchisees in the two quarter. Some of the autumn and winter returns (about 50 million yuan) directly depressed the company's two quarter income. In addition, considering the overall pressure of franchisees this year, from the perspective of financial prudence, the proportion of expected liabilities in the first half of the year increased (possibly in the second half of the year), and the top two factors superimposed, resulting in a slight decline in the two quarter revenue of the company.

The staff of the nine Mu Wang Securities Department told reporters that "the situation of the order meeting is uncertain at the moment, but at present, terminal sales are affected by two factors, one is the backlog of inventory, the other is the economic situation is uncertain. Two reasons have led to the slow down of shop opening."

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"Small businesses" have high growth

Compared with the traditional strong men's clothing brand, as a rising star, the search for special and Pathfinder is less affected by the industry's slow down.

Tao Xu, a pathfinder, said, "our order meeting has been announced for an increase of more than 50%.

Because we belong to the subdivision area, the outdoor industry is still at the peak of rapid development.

Search staff at the special Securities Division also told reporters that "our 2013 order will meet expectations, and overall growth will be better. High growth will mainly depend on the extension of brand."

Guo Min, an analyst at Tianfeng securities, pointed out that although the pace of expansion of the channels slowed down in 2012, the average area of new shops opened in the first half of the year was more than 200 square meters. The extension of expansion was still the main driving factor for the rapid growth of the company's revenue. In the first half of the year, the company realized an income of 664 million yuan, an increase of 48.3% over the same period last year.

The two quarter revenue growth was 48.9%, higher than the first quarter revenue growth of 47.6%.

Southern China area (Guangdong, Jiangxi, Hunan and other provinces) added more stores, and revenue increased by 110% over the same period.

"Due to the location of the headquarter in Dongguan, the location advantage in Southern China is more obvious. The company thinks that the blank market in Southern China area is still more, hoping to concentrate on the market and enhance the influence, and then further expand the market. From the latest market expansion seminar held by the company in 2013, it will increase the market input in North China."

Founder Securities analyst Zhang Baoping also said that although this year's macro consumption is slightly weak, but found in the precise positioning of the three or four categories of cities, these areas are experiencing the process of urbanization and consumption upgrading, the impact of the macroeconomic impact is relatively small.

Unlike other casual wear enterprises, the company controls the cost in the procurement process, and the wholesale discount is low. Most retail outlets are beneficial to consumers, and the products with high cost performance win more consumers' favor.

Founder Securities estimates that the channel capacity of the search company is about 10000 or more. At present, there are about 1700 stores, and the number of stores is up to 3000. The main focus is on the extension of channels (one street, many shops, high quality stores, air development to the two floor), and the future high growth can still be expected.

"We believe that the brand positioning of the search brand is clear, and the popularity of the brand is improved after the listing.

The gathering of the rural population to the three or four tier cities will bring the continued prosperity of low-end consumption, and the orientation of the company's parity will be fully benefited.

Guang Fa securities analyst Lin Hai said that the extension of search in particular is still high.

Ju Xinghai, an analyst at CITIC Securities, pointed out that the search has already completed the spring and summer new product orders in 2013, and it is estimated that the order volume will increase by about 45%.

"According to our calculations, the capacity of the outdoor industry is 2874, and as of May 2012, there are about 1200 channels in the company, which will only have more than doubled expansion space for the main brand of the Pathfinder.

In 2012, it is estimated that the company will add more than 400 stores, and the channel growth will be about 38.4%.

Founder Securities analyst Chen Guangyao said that in the next few years, epitaxial expansion is still the main focus of the company.

The overall growth rate of outdoor industries in the two or three cities in 2011 is faster than that in the first tier cities. The Pathfinder has the obvious advantage in the second tier market, with the market share of 15.09%, ranking first, and the Future Ltd will speed up the layout of the two or three tier cities.

In addition, the single shop effect of the Pathfinder is only 610 thousand yuan, and the difference between floor stores and Lining and Anta shopping malls is large. There will be much room for improvement in the future.