Why Is The Mentality Of Textile Enterprises Pessimistic?

During the long holidays,

The market is running smoothly. Due to the fact that most of the cotton mill shipments were not ideal in September, the previous "Kim Gu" market was basically not formed. Therefore, cotton yarn factories often choose to take a vacation to adjust the current production rhythm, and the holiday period usually ranges from 3-5 days.

After the festival cotton yarn factory has also resumed work, and gradually returned to normal production and operation. Some of the cotton mills with larger inventory pressure indicated that they would continue to recuperate, and the textile enterprises started again after No. 10 were common.

According to the 365 yarn network, the recent "sudden rise" of high and medium cotton yarn orders are better, some of the cotton mill double section is still in normal production, of which brand enterprises account for a larger proportion.

In addition, the high and medium yarn mill period of the holiday is relatively short, mostly in the vicinity of 3 days. At present, many of them have already resumed work earlier. Several brand enterprises are busy with the delivery on the first working day after the festival. There are still orders for the tight spinning of JC50/60 and so on, and the market atmosphere is relatively good.

Overall, the sale of medium and high count cotton yarn is still significantly better than that of other cotton yarns. However, according to the author's understanding, most of the cotton mill's main mindset is still pessimistic, and there is still a lack of confidence in the market outlook. Why is the order support difficult to shake the adjustment of market mindset?

Worry one:

According to past practice, new cotton will be listed in large quantities after "eleven", because the current market price is obviously lower than the country's 20400 yuan / ton purchase and storage price, so the enthusiasm of cotton enterprises to store and store is extremely high.

After a large number of new cotton goes on sale, the cotton that meets the storage standards will continue to increase. When the cotton enterprises' active storage will also pull the price of the cotton spot market back to the purchasing and storage price, the price of the fine cotton will show a stable trend.

However, the uplink of fine staple cotton prices will be relatively limited to the support of medium and high count cotton yarn. To ensure yarn quality, medium and high count cotton yarn will be blended with long staple cotton. The higher the number of branches, the higher the proportion of long staple cotton. The cotton yarn with more than 80S of brand name will be produced by long staple cotton.

Due to the quota is hard to find, at present, the scale spinning enterprises have begun to replace Xinjiang long staple cotton, while Xinjiang long staple cotton prices are mainly stable in recent years. The mainstream price of long staple cotton 137 is basically around 24000 yuan / ton line, and the fluctuation is small. The purchase and storage of the state has not yet lifted the price of long staple cotton, so the price of long staple cotton is stable and the support for medium and high count cotton yarn is relatively limited.

Of course, if the price of staple cotton goes up and the price difference of slender cotton is reduced, the price of long staple cotton will not be excluded. However, in the short term, the price of long staple cotton should be stabilized in fine staple cotton, and the cost of supporting high cost cotton yarn should be lower than that of other cotton yarns.

Worry two: order structure problem is obvious, spinning enterprises dare not have the slightest relaxation.

Although most of the textile enterprises have received some orders in recent years, but from the order structure, there are many problems: on the one hand, the current orders are mainly concentrated in the downstream several brand customers, among which there is no shortage of single brands, but there is a temporary guarantee for the shipment of the cotton mill. But at the same time, the procurement of small and medium-sized cloth factories is not active. Most of them adopt the train of thought of buying and selling with the purchase. The difference between the sales channels of the high and medium yarn mill is obvious, and once the downstream factories stop the goods, the sales of the cotton mill will tend to stagnate, and the situation is relatively passive.

The order that the enterprises get is mostly the middle yarn, and the demand for 80S or 100S is still slightly insufficient. For the textile enterprises, on the one hand, the factory machinery has not made full use of it (according to the 365 yarn net www.365yarn.com, it is known that the brand spinning enterprises have more advantages of 80S or more, and the utilization ratio of the machines is also high). The use of specialized spinning machines to produce the middle yarn is somewhat useless. On the other hand, the proportion of medium yarn is relatively low because of the long staple cotton ratio, and the profit is slightly thinner. Even a few large scale textile enterprises are still at a slight loss or reluctance to do the same. In addition, the present spinning

Worry three: the current overall macroeconomic situation is poor, and downstream demand is difficult to improve.

This year's cotton textile industry's "difficult situation" is mainly caused by the downturn of the actual demand in the lower reaches, which is a reality that most spinning enterprises are self-evident.

The economic situation of the main economies in the periphery is not good enough, resulting in the weakness of the consumer market.

At present, European countries are still deep in the mire of debt crisis, and various contradictions in Greece, Spain and other countries emerge in an endless stream. The peak of the debt repayment period in October has also made European policymakers uncomfortable. Although the United States is pushing loose policies, the economic situation is still not easy to achieve in the short term, and the "fiscal cliff" issue also affects the nerves of the market at all times. The Japanese market was relatively stable, but due to the influence of the Diaoyu Islands incident, Sino Japanese relations have become increasingly strained, and the normal trade contacts between the two countries have also been implicated. The Japanese market, one of the main markets of China's textile industry, is also hard to say at present.

In the domestic market, the slowdown in economic growth is already an indisputable fact. The weakness of the economic environment also restricts the follow-up of actual demand, and the acceptance of terminal consumption in the domestic market is also unfavorable.

Therefore, as a whole, the current macro environment is still biased towards the weak, and the downstream demand will be difficult to improve in the short term.

Before the beginning of the 365 yarn network reporter learned that, in order to prevent the market situation improved, the high and medium yarn mills only accept orders within 30 days, and now there is a cotton mill said that the order cycle has an extended trend, part of the machine list is approaching the end of December, so we can see that the cotton mill mentality remains pessimistic.

Moreover, due to the general loss of textile enterprises in the first half of the year, the high and medium cotton yarn was once in an awkward situation of "no one is interested" because of the high price.

Although the order situation has improved in 8-9 months, the overall situation has not changed yet. The gloomy business has made most of the cotton mills lack the bottom and the mentality is slightly pessimistic.

To sum up, although the high and medium yarn mill still has orders, the cotton mill has many worries. The contradiction between the order structure and the relative downturn in actual demand will be a test for the market.

In addition, according to the author's understanding, the purchase plan for the first quarter of the next year for large garment enterprises is basically implemented. Orders for the two quarter still need time. It is expected that the market will have a "neutral" possibility, which will also suppress the market situation of the middle and high branches.

Therefore, the author suggests that textile enterprises should pay more attention to the price and avoid adjusting the price blindly.

。