October 30, 2012 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

[Hongyuan futures] limited space under zhengmian

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20520 yuan / ton; 229 level 19645 yuan / ton; 328 level 18791 yuan / ton; 428 grade 17969 yuan / ton.

domestic

Product: polyester staple fiber 10690 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 14360 yuan / ton; C32S price 25665 yuan / ton.

2. domestic spot: domestic cotton spot prices continue to operate smoothly.

State purchasing and storage high protection prices continue to curb the purchase of textile enterprises to real estate cotton, with the expansion of the difference between inside and outside cotton, a small number of textile enterprises choose 40% tariff import low price cotton.

3. imported cotton: in October 29th, the price of China's main port of imported cotton was generally lower, most varieties under 0.10-0.30 cents, Australia cotton prices rose 0.5 cents, and India cotton fell 1.5 cents.

At present, the customs clearance of cotton is still the most popular market concern.

With the approaching of the end of the year, the textile enterprises with surplus quotas are waiting to replenish their inventory. The difference between cotton prices inside and outside the country has widened in recent weeks, and the full tariff clearance has attracted more attention.

4. the purchase and storage of new cotton: on the 29 day, the China cotton reserve management company plans to purchase and store 150200 tons of cotton in 2012, and 87560 tons actually.

As of October 29th, the total turnover of cotton temporary storage and storage pactions was 1631920 tons in 2012, of which 421600 tons in mainland China and 1210320 tons in Xinjiang.

5.ICE cotton: in October 29th, as Hurricane Sandy approached the US economic and financial center in New York, the US stock market closed for a day, while the futures market with the remaining electronic platform trading was also cold. Investors were sitting on the fence, trading cautiously, and the market volume was extremely low.

In this case, ICE futures continued to oscillate, and the December contract closed up 19 points.

Summary:

The early market worried that the quality of the new cotton quality in the United States is too high, which can not generate warehouse receipts, nor is it acceptable for textile mills. However, under the background of weak cotton demand and large inventory in China, the quality problem of US cotton is not enough to significantly affect cotton prices in China.

Next, Zheng cotton still takes stability as the keynote, and has limited space in the storage and purchase period. The author focuses more on the strategy of lowering prices.

At present, CF1301 is below the support level near 19550, and the underlying support is in the 19350-19450 interval.

[Yi De futures] cattle market Zheng cotton shock stabilized

CF1305 opened low on Monday, and CF1305 closed more than 3 million hands.

CF1305 closed at 19280 yuan / ton, down 80 yuan / ton, increased 5724 positions; in October 29th, China's imported cotton (FC Index M) 84.82 cents / pound, fell 0.39 cents / pound, 1% yuan tariff reduced price 13729 yuan / ton, sliding price conversion price 14679 yuan / ton.

According to New York's October 29th news, US cotton futures rose in a weak trading session on Monday. Investors in Wall Street and other financial markets were sidelined by Hurricane Sandy.

ICE12 cotton rose 0.19 cents, or 0.3%, and the settlement price was 72.61 cents per pound.

In October 29th, the cotton trading market in the national cotton trading market reached 13340 tons, a decrease of 2320 tons compared with the previous trading day, an increase of 720 tons of orders, and a total purchase of 62260 tons.

On the 29 day, the opening of each contract was mixed.

Basically, the recent yarn

The overall atmosphere is still in the early stage of decline, and it is difficult to change the situation. The overall price is stable and weak.

It is about to enter November, and the traditional peak season in September and October has come to a close.

On Monday, Zheng cotton went down and left, but the 05 contract has reached the target level. Although the market is still weak, it is difficult for Cheng cotton to break the area.

Today's operation suggests leaving the field and waiting for the opportunity to do more. The reference price range of CF1305 is 19200-19500.

[MEIKO futures] industry fundamentals dull cotton key support shocks

Overnight, as the hurricane Sandy approached the US economic and financial center in New York, the US stock market closed for a day, while the futures market with the remaining electronic platform trading was also cold. Investors were sitting on the fence, trading cautiously, and the market volume was extremely low.

In this case, ICE futures continued to oscillate, and the December contract closed up 19 points.

According to the news, according to India

The Export Promotion Association (AEPC) data said that India's clothing exports fell below the US $1 billion mark, thanks to the appreciation of the rupee in August.

In August, India's clothing exports were 55 billion rupees (US $989 million). According to the India rupee, it increased by 13.9% compared with last year, or 7.2% in the US dollar.

On the international market, on the 29 day, the price of imported cotton in China was generally lower than that of most other varieties. Most varieties were under 0.10-0.30 cents, Australia cotton prices rose 0.5 cents, and India cotton fell 1.5 cents.

At present, the customs clearance of cotton is still the most popular market concern.

With the approaching of the end of the year, the textile enterprises with surplus quotas are waiting to replenish their inventory. The difference between cotton prices inside and outside the country has widened in recent weeks, and the full tariff clearance has attracted more attention.

The drop in cotton prices is expected to attract textile mills to enter the market.

The domestic market, on the 29 th, despite the domestic concussion of Zheng cotton, the spot price remained unaffected and continued to run smoothly, while the downstream yarn market was still in the doldrums. The prices of all varieties dropped slightly. It is estimated that if the cotton price in the four quarter rises moderately, it must rely on domestic demand to pick up.

In October 29th, the national cotton temporary storage and storage business reached 87560 tons. As of that date, 2012 cotton temporary storage and storage pactions totaled 1631920 tons in 2012, including 421600 tons in the mainland and 1210320 tons in Xinjiang.

Spot quotation, October 29th C/A cotton 87.50 (cents / pound), 14975 yuan / ton (according to sliding tax), Australia cotton 94.10, discount general trade port delivery price 15823 yuan / ton; Uzbekistan cotton 89.60, discount general trade port delivery price 15238 yuan / ton; West Africa cotton 85.10, discount general trade port delivery price 14682 yuan / ton; India cotton 82.10, discount general trade port delivery price 14327 yuan / ton.

The national cotton price index A is 19648 yuan / ton, up 1 yuan, and the B index is 18793 yuan.

Market analysis, the spot market is more stable, as the downstream market of textiles has not improved significantly, cotton enterprises are still focusing on purchasing and storage. Recently, the market rumors that the country will throw a certain amount of cotton in November or have a weak impact on the market.

The outer disk returned to the 72-70 shock platform, and Zheng cotton fell back to the test support.

On the operation, the early air and single reference will be held on the 60 day moving average.

[Wanda futures] hurricane Sandy blow high cotton price

Hurricane Sandy has led the US stock market to shut down for the first time in 27 years due to weather conditions. Schools, businesses and government departments have also closed down and public pport has been closed.

Monday's ICE cotton market was slack, with the main contract closed slightly higher in December to 0.19 cents to 72.61 cents / pound, and cotton prices remained around 72 cents / pound sideways.

However, the new cotton market in the US and India will fall, and China's purchase will decline due to the lack of import quotas, which will make the cotton price remain weak. The December contract will challenge 70 cents / pounds to support it.

Monday ICE cotton rose slightly, but the main contract in December still closed in the short-term average, KD and MACD indicators to form a downward alignment of the gap, MACD index green column began to grow, the trend will continue, December contract will challenge 70 cents / pounds strong support position.

As of October 29th, 85.27% of China's public inspection cotton will be in storage, which will lead to tight resources in the spot market.

But the recession in the euro zone has resulted in global consumption shrinking, the expansion of domestic and foreign cotton prices, the lack of competitiveness of Chinese products in the international market, the further weakening of demand, and the limited consumption of cotton and cotton yarns occupied by imports. Domestic cotton is hard to get the favor of textile enterprises.

It is difficult to attract interest from textile enterprises.

On the other hand, after the end of the stock market, some investors began to increase the number of 1305 contracts, which led to the continued decline of Zheng cotton. The main 1305 contract is expected to challenge the strong support position of 19000 yuan / ton integer.