Cotton Price Outlook Is Not Clear, Downtrend Is Still A Long-Term Trend.

"Even if

In the near future, we will not lose money when we have tight storage capacity.

People familiar with the matter revealed to the newspaper that in September, the reserve cotton was thrown and stored, selling nearly 500 thousand tons of reserve cotton, throwing the price of storage at 18500 yuan per ton, although it was lower than the market price, but the central storage cotton also did not lose.

The above said that 300 thousand tons of stored cotton were stored in 12600 yuan per ton last year. In addition, two cotton imports of 160 thousand tons and 50 thousand tons were imported, and the cost of imports was only 14000 yuan per ton.

As a result, 500 thousand tons of dumping and storage is profitable. "So far, there has been no loss of money in cotton reserves."

According to his statement, the state is collecting and storing at present, the market price is below 19000 yuan per ton, and it can not rise to more than 20400 yuan of the state's purchasing and storage price.

But later, with the inventory gradually entering the storage and storage warehouse, the market cotton is less and less, plus the country does not issue quotas before the end of December, no textile enterprises can use cotton, and the market price of cotton will definitely rise.

This is the same as Li Qunxian, who is an importer of cotton business.

"Cotton has entered the national stockpile, and there are not many cotton stocks in the market. Cheap imported cotton is also limited by quotas."

From the current inventory situation and trend analysis, Li Qunxian thinks that textile enterprises will not be able to use cotton in late November, and the spot market will rise in the next 10-15 days.

In Li Qunxian's view, cotton reserves in the national reserve store may be sold to a reasonable price at that time. Although the price is relatively cheap, the imported cheap cotton imported from abroad will not be lost through the way of reverse rotation.

Moreover, Li Qun first estimated that cotton prices will continue to rise next year compared with current prices. He thinks that prices will be between $18500-20500 before next 6-7 months.

Although international

In the continued decline, but Li Qunxian believes that the international export of cotton resources are far from imagined.

The data he obtained was that cotton exports in India were about 2 million 200 thousand tons last year, and the total export volume this year is up to 60-70 tons.

Brazil's output this year is only 1 million 440 thousand tons, compared with 2 million tons last year.

"Despite the recent fall in US cotton futures, the USDA's monthly report is cracking down on the market, but India's new cotton is coming to the market on a large scale. This year, India cotton is listed late, which is less than last year and has an impact on the domestic market price."

Li Qunxian said that if India cotton prices were set high, it would eliminate the possibility of future low price cotton resources, and the quotas issued by the state could only buy high priced imported cotton, thus pushing up domestic spot prices.

However, in the view of the cotton association and some logistics providers, the long-term trend of cotton prices is still declining.

"At present, the price of the cotton market has been hovering around 18600 yuan per ton, and the national storage price of 20400 yuan per ton is there. It is estimated that the cotton price will come to 19000 yuan per ton in the next 3-4 months, but there will be a continuous decline after April."

Ma Junkai, Deputy Secretary General of Shandong Dezhou Cotton Association, said.

He believes that the cotton price per ton of 19000 yuan is acceptable to all parties in the industry, but next year it is possible to continue down this price, probably to 18000 yuan per ton.

The key is to look at the trend of cotton prices in the international market. If the international market continues downward, domestic cotton prices may drop faster.

Jia Shaobin and Ma Junkai share similar views on cotton logistics.

Jia Shaobin believes that after the end of the state's purchase and storage, cotton prices will definitely fall, because foreign orders are still relatively weak, and domestic cotton textile processing enterprises are still having a hard time.

"Next year, the quotas issued by the state will also be reduced. The amount of storage and collection of the state is so large that it must be digested. It is unlikely that so many cotton will be placed there and the quota will be imported.

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