Since October, The RMB Has Risen By Nearly 1%. The Difficulties Of Foreign Trade Enterprises Will Aggravate The Employment Situation.

Recently,

The trend of sustained rising has caused widespread concern.

Information on the foreign exchange market shows that the RMB opened 6.2252 yuan against the US dollar on the 14 day, which is the upper limit of 1% of the twelfth consecutive trading days.

Since then, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar has reached a high level since half a year ago, and the spot exchange rate has also hit a new high.

Since the implementation of the new RMB exchange rate reform in 2005, the appreciation rate of RMB against the US dollar has exceeded 20%.

Although the RMB exchange rate has risen and fallen, the general trend is still mainly appreciation.

However, like this continuous trading for more than more than 10 trading days, it is rare in history.

As for the reasons why the RMB exchange rate continues to rise, there are probably several representative points: first, after the launch of the third round of quantitative easing (QE3) policy in the United States, the international dollar is generally ignored and the non US dollar currencies including RMB are seen.

In other words, as the dollar continues to drain, the dollar depreciates and the renminbi appreciates.

Secondly, relative to the weak foreign economy, the steady growth of China's economy is still more obvious, which has largely boosted confidence in the RMB market in the international market.

In addition, the willingness to sell foreign exchange between domestic enterprises and residents has been strengthened after QE3. However, the purchasing behavior of the Central Bank of China is not positive, and the default market is pushing up the renminbi, which means that the central bank's tolerance of RMB appreciation has increased.

However, the negative impact of the continued appreciation of the renminbi will soon be apparent.

At present, China's steady growth task is arduous and the reform of the foreign trade system is at a critical stage.

On the one hand, the excessive appreciation of the renminbi is inconsistent with our current export promotion policies.

Not long ago, the State Council promulgated the "opinions on promoting the steady growth of foreign trade", aimed at curbing it as soon as possible.

The trend of rapid growth is declining.

Obviously, the appreciation of RMB too fast will have a great negative impact on the export of Chinese enterprises.

According to the data released by the General Administration of customs, although China's import and export growth rate is better than market expectations in October this year, the target of 10% is still very difficult. It is estimated that China's export growth will only be about 8% this year, and the import growth rate will be about 5%, which is much lower than the expected period.

If the renminbi appreciates too fast, it will surely blow up exports that have just recovered.

On the other hand, the continued appreciation of the renminbi will also add to the pressure on the struggling foreign trade enterprises and increase the pressure of employment.

At present, China's foreign trade enterprises are in a rather difficult position, and the rise in exchange rate costs caused by the appreciation of the renminbi is one of the main reasons.

The Ministry of Commerce, Ministry of industry and information technology's test of RMB appreciation pressure on labor-intensive industries shows that if RMB appreciates 3% in the short run, it may lead to the result.

System

The profits of manufacturers, toys, household appliances and mobile phones dropped by as much as 50%.

What is worrying is that since the middle of October, the appreciation of RMB has reached nearly 1%.

Foreign trade enterprises will have to lay off workers to lighten their burden because of their difficulties in operation, which will aggravate the tension in the employment situation.

In fact, if the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate moves towards the unilateral appreciation, it is not in line with China's foreign trade development strategy.

The eighteen major reports put forward the strategy of foreign trade development, which is "equal emphasis on exports and imports", which calls for quickening the pace of marketization of RMB exchange rate and forming the exchange rate formation mechanism based on market demand and supply.

In the first half of this year, the continuous decline of the RMB exchange rate to the current continuous trading shows that China's exchange rate formation mechanism is still not perfect, and fluctuates drastically.

Generally speaking, the current RMB exchange rate is not far from the equilibrium level. From the domestic economic situation, the central bank has no reason to let the RMB continue to appreciate against the US dollar.