Textile And Garment Industry: Cotton Throwing And Storing May Be Beneficial To Chemical Fiber.

Market rumors that the State Reserve and the development and Reform Commission are discussing whether to sell or not. Considering that the people concerned have already declared that they will not abandon this principle in the last meeting, but now the market is of high grade.

Tensions and demand have increased, and foreign storage capacity has been tight, especially in Xinjiang cotton because of its tight storage capacity. Therefore, it is debating whether to throw it before the end of the year.

It is difficult to reach agreement at present.

We think it is important not to throw away the reserve, but to throw the reserve price: our country started the State purchasing and storage system from 11 years, the price of 19800 years of cotton purchasing and storage in 11 years, the price of 20400 yuan in the 12 year storage and storage, over 3 million tons in 11 years, and this year is likely to reach this level again.

On the one hand, the state can stabilize the output of cotton by collecting and storing, but it also needs to meet the downstream demand by throwing and storing, and to adjust the domestic cotton price by collecting and storing.

At present, there is a shortage of high-grade cotton in the market, and the storage capacity is tight. Therefore, throwing and storing is inevitable, but the time can not be determined.

For downstream textile enterprises, throwing and storing Prices determine their cotton consumption cost; for chemical fiber enterprises, cotton prices have a strong price comparison and price demonstration effect on chemical fiber prices.

Therefore, if the dumping price is higher than the current price (the current 328 level cotton price index of China is 18831 yuan), it is not conducive to cotton spinning enterprises, but it may cause the price of chemical fiber to rise, which is conducive to the chemical fiber industry. If the price of throwing and storing is lower than the current price, it is just the opposite, which is conducive to cotton spinning is not conducive to chemical fiber enterprises.

We think

The downlink probability is less than the uplink probability: in September of 12, the country sold 1 million tons at a price of 18500 yuan, but the actual turnover was less than 500 thousand tons. The key to the inactive turnover was the huge domestic and foreign cotton price difference. This year's domestic cotton price is higher than the foreign 3000-5000 yuan, which makes the competitiveness of domestic cotton spinning enterprises greatly reduced. These are the main driving force for the drop of the reserve price.

Nevertheless, we still believe that the possibility of a slight rise in reserve prices is slightly larger: first, the long-term oversupply of textile industry has not been carried out in depth, and the industry integration has not been carried out in depth. In the current economic pformation period, the state has reason to accelerate the pformation process of the textile industry, while maintaining a certain cotton price difference is one of the means; two, the state's two purchase and storage price is 19800 yuan and 20400 yuan respectively, taking into account the storage cost of about 1000 yuan, as long as it is below 21000 yuan, all of which are losses, and the NDRC and the state are storing up the power to stop the dumping of the reserve price.

On the whole, we still think that the future dumping price may be between 18000-20000 yuan, which is slightly higher than that of the last dumping reserve of 18500 yuan.

The price increase factors are: first, cotton prices have a strong demonstration effect on chemical fiber prices, mainly viscose and spandex prices have rising momentum, especially viscose, its raw cotton linter price depends entirely on cotton prices; two, viscose and spandex industry has been 2 years of industry loss, product prices continue to decline in space, the company has a strong driving force to increase prices, downstream enterprises have the right to increase the basis of raw materials inventory; three or 12 years, whether exports or domestic sales are low, the demand for chemical fiber has declined, and we think exports may stabilize next year, domestic exports may stabilize, domestic sales may still be sluggish, but the degree of decline may slow down, in short, 13 years downstream of chemical fiber demand may be better than 12 years. If the price is raised, the price of chemical fiber will go up, and the chemical fiber plate or band will have the opportunity to make chemical fiber.

Factors that are not conducive to the increase of chemical fiber prices: first, the chemical fiber industry has made slow progress in capacity production; two, the demand is still difficult to upgrade.

On the whole, we think that the rebound of viscose and spandex price may not be large, but the related enterprises may turn from loss to profit.

Prices generally begin to rise before the traditional peak season of the industry. That is, before and after the Spring Festival and around August, plus the possibility of throwing cotton in the country, we suggest that we pay close attention to the band opportunities of viscose and spandex plates. The viscose plates are mainly Australian ocean technology, Xinxiang chemical fiber and Nanjing chemical fiber; the spandex plate has Taihe new material, Huafeng spandex and you Li holdings.