Xiaoping Analysis Of The 2012 Chemical Fiber Market: Don'T Worry Too Much.

There is no need to worry too much about the decline in efficiency: China

Duan Xiaoping, President of the association, talked about the economic operation of chemical fiber industry.

In the first three quarters of 2012, although the overall economic operation of the chemical fiber industry remained stable, production and investment also maintained a certain growth. However, due to the impact of the macroeconomic environment, the downstream demand was not strong, and the prices of most products continued to decline and inventories increased, making the profits of chemical fiber enterprises shrink obviously.

Many chemical fiber enterprises are deeply concerned about the status quo of the industry, but Duan Xiaoping, President of the China Chemical Fiber Association, believes that enterprises need not worry too much about the sharp decline in the economic efficiency of the chemical fiber industry since the beginning of this year.

Huge gap between cotton prices to support growth of chemical fiber

In the month of 1~9 this year, the output of chemical fiber reached 28 million 351 thousand and 900 tons, an increase of 11.94% over the same period last year, and the growth rate dropped 4.12 percentage points year-on-year.

Viscose staple fiber, polypropylene and nylon production increased rapidly, the growth rate reached 24.15%, 17.77% and 16.57% respectively, and polyester production increased to below 10%.

In the first three quarters, the main sub sectors of chemical fiber industry started normal, and the operating rate of most industries showed a rising trend. Some industries reached or even exceeded the level of the same period last year.

End Xiaoping analysis said that from the above data, we can still see that chemical fiber production is in a stage of rapid growth. On the one hand, the inertia of chemical fiber has been growing rapidly in recent years. On the other hand, due to the huge gap between domestic and foreign cotton prices, some cotton spinning enterprises have to abandon cotton and choose chemical fiber.

The cotton prices in China have gone through the ups and downs of 2010 and 2011, and the trend is relatively stable in 2012.

However, with the support of domestic purchasing and storage policy, the gap between domestic and foreign cotton prices has reached a record high, and the difference between the 5000 yuan and the ton price is lower.

The enterprise has brought great trouble.

In order to further analyze the impact of the fluctuation of cotton raw material prices on the market demand of chemical fiber products, Xiaoping also made special investigations on downstream enterprises.

He said that the domestic cotton price is higher than the international cotton price, which greatly weakened the competitiveness of pure cotton yarn and pure cotton products in the international market.

Therefore, when the gap between cotton prices at home and abroad reached 5000 yuan / ton this year, many enterprises chose to replace cotton with chemical fiber.

In addition, the actual situation in recent years also shows that as long as cotton prices remain at 20000 yuan / ton, the market demand for chemical fiber will have a certain supporting role. Once the price of cotton breaks through 25000 yuan / ton, it will not only support, but pull up the price of chemical fiber.

This year, the pulling effect of cotton prices on the chemical fiber market has weakened, but it still has some supporting role.

Low demand for downstream enterprises to increase inventory

According to the National Bureau of statistics monthly economic report data, 1~8 months, the chemical fiber industry average production and sales rate fell to 95.69%, down 2.13 percentage points year-on-year, viscose, nylon, polyester and other major sub industries declined year on year.

Speaking of the market sales situation of chemical fiber products this year, Xiaoping said that as the downstream demand continues to slump, and the whole industry chain is not good enough for the market outlook, all sectors are going to be stocking up, so that stocks will gradually shift to the upstream, leading to the increasing pressure on chemical fiber stocks in the first half of the year. By the end of June, the main stocks of chemical fiber stocks have reached the high level this year.

In July and August, thanks to the good news from many sources, the confidence of the industrial chain was restored, and the inventory of chemical fiber products decreased significantly. At the end of 8, some of the products fell to the lowest level in the year, but in September, the stock rebounded again.

The output growth of chemical fiber yarn, chemical fiber cloth and cord fabric, which is the main product of the chemical fiber downstream of 1~8 this year, has decreased significantly compared with the same period last year and last year.

But it is noteworthy that the output of non-woven fabrics is increasing at a high speed, reaching 19.79%, which is 7.95 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year.

Xiaoping said that in the next 5~10 years, non-woven fabrics will be one of the fastest growing areas of chemical fiber consumption.

In this year's market demand is generally sluggish, non-woven fabrics can maintain a rapid growth trend, no doubt for the chemical fiber industry has issued a positive signal.

In addition to weakening domestic market demand this year, exports are also seriously hampered.

In the first half of this year, the export volume of chemical fiber decreased by 7.85% compared with the same period last year, and the recovery increased in September.

Xiaoping said that since 2000, the export volume of chemical fiber has maintained a relatively rapid growth, only in 2009, there was a drop due to the impact of the financial crisis.

This year's decline in the growth rate of chemical fiber exports reflects the international market demand is also in a doldrums.

Falling raw material prices deprived industries of profits

For chemical fiber enterprises, the most difficult to adapt and accept this year is the loss of profits.

This year 1~8 months, the chemical fiber industry realized a total profit of 9 billion 817 million yuan, down 51.73% compared to the same period last year.

Xiaoping said that in terms of figures, the efficiency of the chemical fiber industry has declined significantly this year, but the actual situation is not so pessimistic.

Because in 2012 1~8, the total profit of chemical fiber industry dropped by 51.73% over the same period last year, based on the high base number in 2011.

In 2009, the chemical fiber industry took the lead in getting out of the shadow of the financial crisis and stepped out of the market. Especially in the first three quarters of 2010 and 2011, the industry was almost in a state of profiteering, with a profit rate of up to 7.16%.

Xiaoping said that the high profit growth in 2010 and 2011 is rare and difficult to meet in 20 years.

In 2005 ~2011, the average profit margin of chemical fiber industry was only 3.84%, including 2010 and 2011 two high profit years.

Statistics show that 1~8 profit margin is only 1.54 percentage points below the average level this year, and it is also a normal performance of the industry in a downward cycle, and it is still above the profit margin in 2008.

Therefore, enterprises should not worry too much about the economic benefits of the chemical fiber industry.

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End Xiaoping analysis, chemical fiber industry lost profits this year, due to the sharp decline in raw material and product prices caused by a large proportion of losses, chemical fiber processing room for normal profit margins remain basically stable.

The price of synthetic fiber has a strong correlation with the crude oil market.

1~8 months, the crude oil market fluctuated greatly, resulting in instability of chemical fiber market and increased business risk.

Especially in May and June, crude oil prices continued to decline rapidly, resulting in the cost of supporting the cost of synthetic fiber products, and the low demand for downstream products.

The psychology of "buying up but not buying" has also led to a further weakening of market confidence and a continuous fall in product prices.

The rebound in the polyester Market in July and August was also mainly due to the promotion of crude oil prices.

Xiaoping said that the continued decline in raw material prices led to serious inventory losses.

From mid February to the end of June, the main varieties and raw materials of chemical fibers are basically in a downward track of prices. Downstream businesses are all buying and selling with their stocks. All stocks are pferred to chemical fiber enterprises, and chemical fiber enterprises must keep raw material stocks for 7~20 days.

As a result, the raw materials and products of chemical fiber enterprises lost a lot of losses.

From mid May to mid June, the price of polyester chain fell the fastest month. During this period, the stock of polyester products and raw materials lost about 5 billion yuan.

"The fluctuation of raw material prices has become a major factor in the profits of the chemical fiber industry."

Xiaoping said.

Rational investment to avoid overheating signs

The huge profits of the chemical fiber industry in 2010 and 2011 attracted many investors' attention, and also led to the rapid growth of the chemical fiber industry in the past two years.

Since the beginning of this year, the growth rate of investment in the chemical fiber industry has returned to a reasonable level.

1~9 months, the chemical fiber industry actually completed investment of 64 billion 346 million yuan, an increase of 21.51% over the same period last year, down 19.02 percentage points from the same period last year, down 26.36 percentage points from last year's growth rate.

Nevertheless, Xiaoping believes that the pressure of new capacity in the chemical fiber industry still exists.

Xiaoping's capacity expansion in the chemical fiber industry is summarized as follows: "the growth is too fast, the development is hot, and there are structural and periodic overcapacity."

He explained that structural surplus means that the phenomenon of homogenization of products is serious. The same products are developing too fast and too fast. The development of differentiated products and functional products is still lacking. Therefore, in the future, the investment in chemical fiber industry should be done or not.

The phased surplus means that the capacity expansion in the last two years is too fast.

It is predicted that the production capacity of chemical fiber will reach 37 million tons by the end of this year. At this rate, it will reach 41 million tons by the end of 2013. This is exactly what our chemical fiber industry will accomplish in the end of 12th Five-Year. That is to say, the chemical fiber industry will be able to complete its five year development task in three years.

Therefore, he reminded enterprises to slow down appropriately, especially to prevent excessive investment in polyester industry.

Xiaoping said,

The opportunity for rapid growth and quantity accumulation has already passed in the first 10 years. We must take the road of pformation and upgrading and structural adjustment in the next 10 years.