2013 Textile Brand Clothing Growth Or Difficult To Break 20%

brand clothing Short term operation: Sales and inventory pressures are still in place, and corporate revenue growth will slow down. 2012 1-10 months above quota Clothes & Accessories Retail sales grew by 18%. It is expected that the growth rate in 2013 will not exceed 20%, and the growth of corporate report revenue will drop to around 15%. The spring and summer stock in 2012 has great pressure on inventory. If the cold weather and Spring Festival factor drive autumn winter clothing sales, the income and profit growth rate of garment enterprises in 2013 will reflect the low and high trend.

Sub industry: Men's clothing, shoes Relatively stable products, home textiles boom or improvement, leisure competition pressure is still.

Long term changes in brand clothing: the price system will be broken, and the driving factors of corporate profits will change. "Transfer costs, operational efficiency, external taxes and fees" make clothing prices higher than consumers' purchasing power, sales sluggish, distributors' profits decline, and apparel value chain is facing reshaping. The rapid development of "online channel" (four years CAGR106%, over 300 billion scale), although its product price is not derived from operational optimization, it will promote the transformation of the price system.

Judging the future price of commercial real estate is difficult to rise, the efficiency of clothing enterprises is expected to improve, clothing prices are slowing down or even reducing prices, and ultimately the online and physical channels products and prices tend to be consistent, clothing sales growth can be released.

In this process, the driving factors of corporate profitability will also change: small companies still have the driving force for expansion, and companies with initial size are more dependent on sales driven endogenous growth. At present, some leading companies have promoted this aspect.

Processing and manufacturing: when the turning point of enterprise performance will appear, it remains to be seen. In the 1-10 month of 2012, industry exports increased by 2%, and the growth rate declined. The core reason is the decline in product prices caused by weak external demand and the cost of raw materials. Industry export growth is expected to be around 5% in 2013. The growth of business performance in the first quarter will remain low. If the terminal demand is good in the medium term, the turning point of performance is expected to emerge.

Risk warning. 1., if the economic growth continues to slow in 2013, the problem of slower inventory growth and capital turnover will deteriorate. The 2. endogenetic growth of apparel companies may not significantly promote performance in the short term; 3., the continued downturn in overseas economy and the accelerated appreciation of RMB will increase the pressure of processing enterprises.

Industry Valuation and rating. Brand clothing plate valuation has dropped to 2012/2013 times 16/13 times PE, at the lowest level in history, the follow-up operation risk has been released, maintaining the "stronger than the big city" rating; processing plate valuation 2012/2013 times 15/12 times PE, short term difficult to see the inflection point of performance, to maintain the "middle sex" rating.

Investment strategy. Brand clothing sector adheres to the bottom-up strategy of stock selection. The profit model of differentiated small company's extension and expansion is simple and clear, with high performance and high growth guaranteed. It is the first to push card Nu Di Road, search special agent and Pathfinder. The leading companies in various sub sectors should continuously enhance their endogenous growth. It is worth looking forward to, focusing on men's clothing, men's shoes, home textile leading faucets, "seven wolves, nine herdmen, AOKANG international, and Luo Lai home textiles" with clear competitive pattern and relatively short term operation. The investment timing is expected to appear in the two quarter of 2013. The manufacturing sector only recommended Jiangnan high fiber.

Search at special (002503): 2012Q4 performance is expected to continue to improve. 2012, the annual performance is increasing with certainty. In 2013, net profit growth exceeded 40%, improving terminal operation strength is still the focus. Recent benefits from cold weather, the company's autumn sales feedback is good, and lay a good foundation for future development. In the past two years, supply chain integration and management have enhanced the present effect, and the medium and long term steady expansion has promoted the rapid growth of the performance. To maintain the company's 2012/2013/2014 EPS0.91/1.30/1.88 yuan for three years from 2011, CAGR is expected to be 46% and the target price is 32 yuan to maintain the "buy" rating.

Card Nu Di Road (002656): in 2013, the company's main brand business is expected to grow steadily, while the new business will boost the revenue structure in real terms. The revenue growth is expected to exceed 40%. In view of the higher investment cost of the new business expansion, the net profit growth is expected to be 30%+. In the medium and long term, the company has mature high-end brand operation experience, and its "high-end brand management group" strategy will open up space for its long-term development. To maintain the company's 2012/2013/2014 EPSl.65/2.19/2.90 yuan forecast, the target price is 55 yuan, and maintain the "buy" rating.

Pathfinder (300005): 20i204 revenue growth is expected to rise compared with Q3. To maintain the expected growth of 65%+ in 2012. Although the current outdoor industry competition has intensified, the company's channel inventory has increased slightly, but as the leading industry, the company has obvious advantages in terms of brand influence, sales scale and management level. In 2013, spring and summer orders increased by 50.5%, laying the foundation for the fast growth of annual performance. To maintain the company's 2012/2013/2014 EPS0.50/0.76/1.11 forecast, the target price is 22.80 yuan to maintain the "buy" rating.

Seven wolves (002029:2012 annual performance hope to keep 40%+ beautiful growth. Channel inventory management is effective, and it is expected to achieve steady growth in 2013. The competition for men's clothing is clear and the leading companies will grow steadily. Category clarity and channel change will become a bright spot for growth. Slightly lowered the company's 2012/2013/2014 EPS forecast to 1.13/1.41/1.75 yuan, the net profit in the next three years CAGR is expected to be 33%. Company valuation has a margin of safety. Combined with industry valuation and company growth expectations, it gave its relative value of 18 times PE in 2013, corresponding to the target price of 25 yuan, and maintained the "buy" rating.

AOKANG International (603001): as the sole leader in men's shoes industry, the company is facing great opportunities in the process of forming the industry competition pattern. The international famous brand agents have made substantial progress. They will open up the deadlock in the department stores and open up new space for future growth. The company maintained a forecast of EPSl.37/1.67/2.01 yuan for 2012/2013/2014 ($1.14 in 2011), with a target price of 30.10 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating.

Nine Mu Wang (601566): the company's performance in 2012 is expected to achieve more than 30% growth expectations. But considering the pressure on consumption and the preferential tax rate, prudent expectation is that the net profit growth rate will slow down to less than 10% in 2013. However, the company has relative advantages in operation management, and its brand and channel strategy and benign financial indicators also show its robustness. Therefore, our long-term view of the company remains unchanged. To maintain the company's forecast of EPS1.17/1.25/1.61 yuan in 2012/2013/2014, CAGR is expected to be 26% in the next two years. The target price is 25 yuan (corresponding to PE20 times 2013), maintaining the "buy" rating.

Roley home textiles (002293): taking into account the favorable tax rate due in 2013, the company's performance may be increased slightly by the increase of the income tax rate, and it is expected that the company's 2012/2013/2014 EPS will be 2.67/2.90/3.70 yuan. If the effect of tax rate changes is excluded, CAGR will be estimated to be 26% in the next two years starting from 2012. Given 18 times PE in 2013, the target price was 53 yuan to maintain the "overweight" rating.