Export Shoe Leather And Other Enterprises Six Ways To Resolve The Impact Of "Sub Prime Mortgage Crisis"

"Stock god" Buffett said that the subprime mortgage crisis was a poisoned wine brewed by the US financial industry.

They not only have to "taste" themselves, but also allow others to "share".

China's foreign trade export enterprises should take positive measures to deal with them.

On the morning of June 19th, at the annual meeting of China Leather Association shoes shoes Specialized Committee at the annual meeting of golden monkey group, Professor Zhou Shijian, senior executive of China WTO Research Association and senior research fellow of Sino US relations research center of Tsinghua University, delivered a speech on the impact of the US subprime mortgage crisis on China's exports. Zhou Shijian used a lot of economic data to analyze the causes and effects of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and to deal with China's foreign trade export enterprises.

Outbreak: the US economy's "poisonous sores" attack "sub loan is a" poisonous sores "of the US economy, and its initiator is the US financial institution.

Zhou Shijian pointed out that the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, also known as the subprime mortgage crisis, is a storm caused by the bankruptcy of the subprime mortgage institutions, the closure of investment funds and the severe shock of the stock market.

The crisis swept across the world's major financial markets, including the United States, the European Union and Japan, and gradually spread to China in August 2007.

Zhou Shijian explained that subprime mortgage is a subprime mortgage loan, which is a housing mortgage loan for people whose credit level is relatively poor, their ability to repay loans is not proven and other liabilities are heavier.

Compared to the best interest rate mortgage loans offered to people with good credit, the interest rate of sub prime mortgage loans is even higher.

The reason why American financial institutions are willing to lend money to these people is because they can get higher interest rates.

In order to attract low-income people to use subprime loans to buy houses, American financial institutions have lowered the threshold of "subprime loans", for example, allowing 90% mortgage zero down payment and not paying principal in the first three years.

Under the stimulation of this policy, the subprime loan scale of the United States has increased rapidly.

By the end of 2003, the total amount of US subprime loans was only $300 billion, and in 2006 it was as high as $2 trillion.

In 2006, people who bought subprime loans accounted for 40% of new homes.

For low-income housing buyers, although subprime interest rates are higher than normal mortgage rates, these people are hoping that prices will rise further, so they dare to borrow money to buy a house.

For financial institutions, they package "subprime loans" into complex financial products through derivative financial instruments such as asset securitization. They are subordinated debts of various returns and risk types. They sell these subordinated debt to Europe by virtue of their strong institutional credit, and also make profits from East Asian countries such as Japan and India.

When housing prices are high, loans will not be a problem because of the value of collateral, but when housing prices fall, collateral value will fall, and mortgage income will not be high.

If this goes on, the original credit assets of banks will have bad debts and the cash flow will be interrupted. Then the prices of bonds issued by these assets will fall sharply, and the financial institutions investing in such securitized bonds will face serious losses.

In the spring of 2007, the US real estate bubble burst and the subprime mortgage crisis broke out.

The start and fermentation of the subprime mortgage crisis forced the Federal Reserve to abandon the monetary tightening policy for two years in late August last year.

The US economy dropped sharply in the fourth quarter, with a growth rate of only 0.6 percentage points.

Although the US government has adopted various measures to rescue the market, the subprime mortgage crisis has not been well controlled.

Consequences: the US economy is the first to bear the brunt. Zhou Shijian said that since the end of last year, the Fed has lowered its forecast for the US economy for two times in 2008.

In November last year, the Fed lowered its original forecast of the US economic growth rate from 2.5% to 2.75% in 2008 to 1.8% to 2.5%. In February this year, it reduced to 1.3% to 2%.

In the late March, the US Department of energy forecast that the US economy grew by only 1.3% this year, a 0.5% increase in the first quarter and an increase of 0.7% in the second quarter.

The OECD is pessimistic that the first two quarters of this year will only grow by 0.1%.

In April 9th, the International Monetary Fund estimated that the US economic growth rate was only 0.5% this year, the worst performance of the US economy in 1991.

Many people believe that the impact of the US subprime mortgage crisis has passed, but the latest data show that the first half of 2008, the economy may have a slight negative growth. Obviously, the US economy is going through a very difficult period, and the haze of subprime mortgage crisis is still lingering.

Zhou Shijian said that many people believe that the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States only affects buyers of low-income families. In fact, the subprime mortgage crisis has affected three levels of the United States.

One is the poor.

The most direct injury is the sub credit households who use loans to buy houses. They may lose their homes, and the two is the middle class.

In order to pfer risks, American banks have sold some subprime securities in the market, and some middle class buyers have bought them. The owners originally wanted to increase the value of loans by borrowing, but unexpectedly they were caught. Three, the rich.

For example, some big banks failed, bankrupt or serious losses. Large numbers of financial white-collar workers and gold collar workers with annual salary of millions of dollars were dismissed in batches.

The subprime crisis has seriously compromised consumer confidence.

The US consumer confidence index dropped from 99.5 in September last year and 95.6 in October to 76 in February this year, further down to 64.5 in March. The US consumer confidence index has dropped to its lowest point since 1982.

The unemployment rate is inversely proportional to the decline in the consumption index. In 2007, the unemployment rate in the United States was 4.6%, rising to 5.5% in May this year.

Impact: the subprime mortgage crisis affecting China's foreign trade has not only led to the downturn in the US economy, but also many countries, including China, have seen a gradual decline in exports to the US.

From the five quarter of last year's export decline, statistics from China and the United States both showed a decreasing trend.

Zhou Shijian said, for example, in April this year, the Canton Fair, the purchase of the United States merchants significantly reduced.

According to statistics, the total number of overseas purchasers increased to 192013, an increase of 1.3% over last autumn's fair, of which 10985 in the US, 9.2% lower than the previous one.

Due to setbacks in business, some US businessmen began to try to pfer some capital pressure to Chinese manufacturers.

According to past practice, importers need to pay the goods within 30 days after obtaining the bill of lading. However, this year, whether it is the Chinese trade fair or the Canton Fair, there are some American purchasers asking the Chinese exporters to extend the payment term, and the longest delay in payment is 180 days.

Zhou Shijian believes that the purpose of extended payment by American businessmen is to extend their financial activity cycle through the compromise of Chinese customers to occupy China's financial resources.

"The United States is the world's largest economy and the most important engine of economic growth. Now the US economy has some serious problems which will cause global impacts.

Against this background, it is unrealistic to expect the Chinese economy to be independent.

Zhou Shijian said that under the influence of the subprime crisis, the credibility of American businessmen who once had a good reputation in international trade began to become unreliable in the eyes of Chinese people.

Zhou Shijian said that in the first quarter of this year, the amount of credit disputes involving the United States in China grew by an astonishing 144%.

According to China Export and Credit Insurance Corp statistics, the company handled 478 credit disputes in the first quarter of this year, involving an amount of US $110 million, of which US $49 million 780 thousand was involved, compared with $50 million in the first quarter of last year and US $20 million 370 thousand in the US.

Zhou Shijian believes that this is not because the American businessman wants to turn his back on the subjective consciousness, but is dragged down by the subprime crisis and passively involved in the credit crisis.

Answer: export enterprises six measures to resolve the subprime mortgage crisis, Zhou Shijian believes that the impact of the subprime crisis on China's exports may extend to the end of this year or early next year. In the case of a depressed US market and increased risks, China's foreign trade exports should find ways to deal with the temporary difficulties. In another six months or so, the US economy may recover or rebound.

In addition, from the perspective of the US dollar cycle rule, the US dollar may rebound in 2009, which will ease the enormous pressure brought by the appreciation of the renminbi.

At present, China's export enterprises need six measures to cope with the difficulties ahead: first, implement the strategy of market diversification.

From the information released by the Canton Fair known as China's foreign trade barometer, the emerging markets in Asia and Africa are growing rapidly. Enterprises should seize the opportunity to adjust their market strategy in time, and learn to "walk on two legs" inside and outside the market.

New markets will be opened up in the EU, ASEAN, oil exporting countries, Latin America, Australia, New Zealand and Africa.

The two is foreign trade and domestic trade.

Now more and more export enterprises are exploring the domestic market, which is a wise move and a long-term plan.

The appreciation of RMB has a serious impact on exports, but it has no impact on domestic trade. With the regulation of the country, the domestic consumer market will grow day by day.

The three is export and import.

There is a rule in the world economic situation. When the export situation is grim, it is the favorable opportunity for imports.

The western developed countries led by the United States grew at a low speed this year, and the United States plunged into a mild recession.

These resource consuming countries will have different levels of demand for resource products, and the prices of resource products will fall to varying degrees in the second half and next half of next year.

This is the favorable time for China to turn its foreign exchange reserves into resource reserves.

Four, we must resolutely implement Scientific Outlook on Development and vigorously adjust the way of product structure innovation. This is the fundamental way out of the plight of foreign trade. If we do not adjust, we will face a situation of reshuffle or even a dead end.

Five, we should make more use of export credit insurance to avoid loan losses.

According to the information provided by China's credit insurance company, China's export credit insurance received 478 cases involving 110 million US dollars in the first quarter of this year.

The same period last year was only $50 million, more than doubled.

The China Export and Credit Insurance Corp and the China Import and export bank are state-run policy financial institutions, which support the import and export businesses of foreign trade enterprises, and should make good use of this platform.

Six, foreign trade export enterprises should diversify their products.

In the current difficult period, foreign trade export enterprises should implement one industry and diversified businesses, and those who operate only one type of enterprises will only get narrower and narrower.

Professor Zhou Shijian, executive director of China International Trade Association, executive director of China World Trade Association, executive director of the National Association of economic studies, executive director of China Association for international economic relations, senior member of Sino US relations research center of China Institute of international studies, senior advisor of Sino US relations research center of Tsinghua University, consultant of Beijing Municipal People's government, consultant of WTO Specialized Committee of China National Association of lawyers, arbitrator of China International Economic and Trade Arbitration Commission, and senior consultant of World Trade Organization Research Association, China EU research center consultant.