The First Echelon Of Domestic Women'S Shoe Brands Face "Survival Troubles"

Baili International, the largest retail shoe company in China, held a shareholders' meeting recently. After the meeting, Sheng Baijiao, CEO of the company, said that due to the weather, the company's sales data in April was not ideal, but the performance in the second quarter would be worse than that in the first quarter. Even so, Sheng Baijiao also denied the statement that "the worst time of Belle has not passed yet", but believed that there is no obvious improvement at present.

　 Belle Encounters the Voices of Analysts

Sheng Baijiao, CEO of Belle International, said after the annual general meeting of shareholders that the sales in April were not very good, mainly because the rainy days reached 20 days, and 7 of the 9 days of holidays were rainy. At ordinary times, the Group's sales on holidays were good, so the weather was the main factor. However, the sales in May have improved from last month, and we hope to maintain it.

However, he believes that the sales performance of the same store in the second quarter will certainly be lower than that in the first quarter (the sales of shoes in the same store increased by 4.5%). At present, he will still strive to maintain the sales of the same store this year to reach the target, but the sales of the next quarter will certainly not reach the target. Even so, Sheng Baijiao is still cheering up the company and denying the statement of failure. Sheng Baijiao doesn't think the worst time of Belle has not passed, but he believes that there is no obvious improvement at present, and he doesn't expect the economy to recover significantly in the second half of the year. He said that the company would still expand its stores as planned. The discount and promotion range of the Group is the same as that of last year, within the normal range. Inventory is still at a normal level and is the same as last year.

In fact, in order to let the market digest the unsatisfactory performance of the company in advance, Belle executives began to release information to major investment banks before the shareholders' meeting, saying that the sales of Belle International would further slow down since 2013, and the performance growth in the second quarter would be lower than that in the first quarter.

The management of Belle said in the teleconference that the retail environment was relatively weak in April, which further slowed sales and disappointed the performance. Although there was a slight recovery in May, the extent was not obvious. In addition, the growth rate of sports apparel, which achieved 11% of the same store growth in the first quarter, also narrowed in May.

Morgan Stanley released a report saying that in view of the high overall comparison base in the second quarter, it is believed that the same store performance of Belle will be weak during the period. The bank reduced the rating of Belle from "overweight" to "keeping pace with the market", and cut the target price by 21% to 13.9 yuan.

UBS cut the profit forecast of Belle this year and next by 6% and 9%, and lowered the target price by 17% to HK $10, maintaining the rating of "sell". In addition to defending the company's poor sales situation, Shengbaijiao has to be busy pacifying minority shareholders. From the first trading day in 2013, the share price of Belle once fell by more than 30%. On January 2, Belle's share price closed at HK $17.36. A few days ago, the day before the shareholders' meeting, the share price of Belle fell to HK $11.76, a new low in the year.

As a result, there are naturally small shareholders who are as uncomfortable as toothache. According to relevant media reports, on the day of the shareholders' meeting, an elderly couple complained outside the door of the shareholders' meeting of Belle, saying that they had recently bought tens of thousands of shares of Belle and had lost more than 100000 Hong Kong dollars on their books. The couple first found out that they were not allowed to participate in the shareholders' meeting because they were not registered, and they still could not participate in the shareholders' meeting despite communication. It was a rare opportunity to appeal to the company's senior management, but the old couple could only look at the door and sigh. However, after the shareholders' meeting on May 28, Belle's share price rebounded. At one point in the session, it rose more than 5% and finally closed at HK $12.32, up 4.76% from the previous trading day.

As for the roller coaster trend of the stock price, Sheng Baijiao, the CEO and executive director of the company, said that he could not help but sigh: "The stock price is difficult to grasp."

On February 21 this year, Belle International issued a profit warning that the company's profit in 2012 was close to the lower end of the market forecast. On the same day, the share price fell sharply, falling 16.77% to HK $15.28, and the turnover jumped to HK $2.066 billion, a new high in nearly a year and a half.

During the year, Belle also suffered from major shareholder reduction. According to the data of Hong Kong Stock Exchange, JPMorgan Chase, the main shareholder of Belle International, reduced its good position of 5.4445 million shares on the market on April 3 this year, cashed out 682195.85 million Hong Kong dollars, the average transaction price was 12.53 Hong Kong dollars, and the maximum transaction price was 12.59 Hong Kong dollars. After the change, they held 58731627.6 million shares, accounting for 6.96%.

In the eyes of stock investors, Belle International is a company whose share price has dropped by more than 25% since the beginning of the year. Sheng Baijiao, one of the company's shareholders, said frankly that Belle is doing a good job for long-term development, which may have a negative impact on performance in the short term. He stressed that he would not be influenced by the stock price performance, and his purpose was to consider the healthy development of the company.

　　 No profit increase on Saturday

Success is always similar, but worry is different.

A few days ago, the 2012 annual report disclosed by the shoe industry on Saturday showed that during the reporting period, the operating revenue reached 1.57 billion yuan, up 16.4% year on year; The operating profit was 78.172 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 45.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 55.834 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 43.85%.

According to the research report released by First Venture Securities, the annual report of the shoe industry on Saturday showed that the company's inventory increased 3.44 times from 2008 to 2012. However, companies try to hide this phenomenon, often explaining it as the increase in the number of self operated stores, the storage of inventory for new stores to be opened, and the increase in online sales. In fact, the company's operating revenue only doubled in the five years from 2008 to 2012.

The annual report data also truly reflects the impact of the latest acquisition on the company on Saturday - the sharp decline of stores and the increase of inventory.

In July 2012, we signed the Equity Purchase Agreement with Haipu Shoes Co., Ltd. on Saturday to purchase 80% of the equity of Haipu Shoes at the purchase price of 264 million yuan.

Relevant information shows that Heap Shoes is a wholly foreign-owned enterprise with a registered capital of 17.25 million US dollars. The company's shareholder (sponsor) is a company incorporated in 2006 and registered in the British Virgin Islands.

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According to the resolution of the board of directors disclosed on Saturday at that time, the main brand of Happel Tianjin is d: fuse, which entered China in 2006 and now has 206 stores in China. At the same time, audited by Tianjian Certified Public Accountants, the main business income of Hepu Shoes in 2011 and as of March 31, 2012 was 153 million yuan and 42.1445 million yuan respectively; The net profit was 10.1683 million yuan and 1.24 million yuan respectively.

It is worth mentioning that the net asset of Haipu Shoes was 104 million yuan when it acquired Haipu Shoes on Saturday, and the net asset evaluated according to the asset based method was 111 million yuan, with a growth rate of 7.21%; According to the income present value method, the total equity investment value of the shareholders of Hepu Shoes is 333 million yuan, and the value-added rate is up to 2.2 times. Finally, the latter was selected as the evaluation result on Saturday, and the equity was acquired at a price of 264 million.

What did the acquisition of Heap bring to Saturday? According to the 2012 annual report on Saturday, 196 self operated stores were acquired during the reporting period on Saturday. It is worth mentioning that the number of domestic stores of Hepu Shoes reached 206 at the time of acquisition, which means that 10 stores of Hepu Shoes were closed in the short term.

At the same time, the annual report shows that in 2012 after the consolidated statement of Hepu Shoes, the operating revenue was 39.8299 million yuan, the operating profit was 1.6843 million yuan, and the net profit was 2.4853 million yuan. Since the company was included in the scope of consolidated financial statements since November 2012, it means that the net profit of 2.4853 million yuan was realized in November and December, and the average monthly net profit of the above two months was 1.2427 million yuan.

As the net profit of Haipu Shoes in the first quarter of 2012 was 1.24 million yuan, according to the above data, the company's annual net profit may be less than 10 million yuan, down from 10.1683 million yuan in 2011. At this growth rate, it will take more than 26 years for the investment of 264 million yuan on Saturday to recover its capital.

At the same time, the amount of inventory on Saturday should not be underestimated. In 2012, the inventory of Hepu shoes was 102 million yuan. Against the background of 1 billion yuan of inventory on Saturday, Hepu has increased by another 10%, and the future inventory digestion will become a major problem.

　　 Daphne's self operation affects profits

Daphne, who suffered from the collective rights protection of franchisees at the end of August 2012, recently announced its annual financial report. Data shows that the turnover of its own core brands in the mainland market has increased by 25%. Unfortunately, Daphne was not able to follow through.

In August 2012, Daphne franchisees from several cities in the central region gathered at Daphne headquarters in Shanghai to defend their rights and directly pointed out that they "crossed the river and demolished the bridge". Daphne also strongly replied that the future direction is really self operated channels.

This is also confirmed again in its annual report. Daphne's annual report said that in 2012, the Group closed 113 franchise stores with poor management. By the end of 2012, the proportion of Daphne's direct stores had risen to 85%, up 4 percentage points from the end of last year. However, Daphne's public relations staff said that the move of "killing franchise stores with pain" in 2012 should not happen again. "Our main direction this year is to continue to develop direct stores, but we will still maintain the model of franchise stores as a supplement. The proportion between direct stores and franchise stores is planned to be 8 to 2."

Recently, Daphne released its financial report for the first quarter of 2013. The financial report shows that sales in the first quarter fell slightly. In this regard, the insiders said that the high growth of last year led to a high base. More importantly, its "de franchising" in the second half of last year has begun to affect its operations in 2013.

Data shows that Daphne's sales outlets increased by 100 in the first quarter of this year, including 127 new stores and 27 closed stores. By the end of March, there were 6469 core brand sales outlets.

According to the 2012 results announced recently, the company achieved operating revenue of HK $10.5 billion in 2012, up 22.8% year on year; The net profit was HK $950 million, up 2.4% year on year; In terms of inventory, the value of goods reached HK $2.37 billion, up 15% year on year.

In addition, the reporter noticed that, considering the overall performance of the department store channel is weak, Daphne has plans to integrate its high-end "AEE Love" and "ALDO" brands with distribution rights. Daphne's annual report revealed that "the Group will integrate the sales network of its own high-end brands' AEE Aiyi ',' Ameda Aimei 'and international brands' AEROSOLES' and' ALDO 'with exclusive distribution rights within the year, and plans to reduce 51 sales points."

According to the analysis of insiders, according to the annual report data of several shoe enterprises, the number of stores opened by Belle and Daphne in 2012 still increased, but the growth mainly came from private brand stores or self operated stores, and the number of franchise stores almost did not increase. This shows that the extensive chain expansion mode in the past needs to be changed.