Abducted Renminbi Exchange Rate

P style= "text-align: left" > August 15th afternoon, the inter-bank inquiry market, the US dollar against the RMB spot rate fell sharply, closing at 6.1125, breaking through the previous low of 6.1143.

This marks the close to the 6.11 threshold of the RMB against the US dollar, < a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.as" > /a > foreign exchange earning a new high.

< /p >

On the same day, the US dollar reported 6.1696 yuan against the central parity of RMB, down 24 basis points from yesterday's P.

Since June 17th, the central parity price of the yuan has reached a new high of 6.1590. After that, the new round of offensive may be launched again after nearly two months of consolidation.

< /p >

< p > for the sharp appreciation of the RMB since the beginning of this year, the economic observer is puzzled: in China, the growth of the macro-economy is going down, the asset bubble is bursting, the debt crisis is serious, and when the overseas investment banks and economic observers are singing the Chinese economy, the RMB exchange rate will not rise and fall. Why? Why? /p

< p > the beginning of the beginning of this year, < a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp" > RMB appreciation > /a >, many people suspect that the central bank is carrying on.

They believe that the recovery of the US economy is very strong, and that the US Federal Reserve will withdraw from the QE at close range. The US dollar is bound to take a new upward trend. As a result of the gradual appreciation of the RMB, a large number of hot money that has entered China in recent years will be evacuated at this time, which will cause a devastating blow to China's bubble asset prices, mainly real estate prices, and the real estate market is related to China's financial system, currency issuance and local fiscal revenue and expenditure.

Therefore, the Chinese government will never sit down to see the withdrawal of hot money and will take certain measures to stabilize the situation.

< /p >

< p > so it is speculated that it is the illusion that the central bank has maintained a strong Renminbi in the market in order to stabilize the asset prices, that is to say, throwing the dollar in its hands and buying the renminbi, and this argument has been corroborated by the continuous decline of the RMB in November 2011. For example, in November 30, 2011, the central price of the renminbi rose more than 100 points in the morning, leading to a continuous rise, but in the afternoon it fell down under the heavy purchase of foreign exchange, and the market suddenly hit the limit price of 6.3799.

At the close, the US dollar inquiry system closed at 6.3793, up 20 points from the previous session.

This is a rare market change since the RMB exchange rate reform in 2005.

< /p >

From P until December 15th, the spot exchange rate of US dollar against RMB reached a limit for 12 consecutive days, and the financial market was in an uproar.

On the 15 day, when the renminbi reached the limit again in the middle of the market, suddenly a large amount of US dollar sell-off was poured out of the state-owned banks in China.

Market participants believe that this is the central bank's reluctance to see the renminbi continue to decline, and to sell the US dollar to stabilize the market expectations of the RMB exchange rate.

< /p >

The last fact is, P, that the speculation is incorrect. For example, the substantial appreciation of the RMB in the first half of this year is accompanied by a continuous sharp decline in China's macro-economy. The US dollar is also rising. However, we can see that foreign exchange holdings have not dropped significantly, but there has been a huge increase in foreign exchange earnings beyond expectations.

The central bank statistics show that the new foreign exchange accounts for the first five months of this year are 683 billion 660 million yuan, 295 billion 430 million yuan, 236 billion 300 million yuan, 294 billion 350 million yuan and 66 billion 862 million yuan respectively.

< /p >

< p > obviously, the final data prove that the central bank did not deliberately carry on the renminbi appreciation, but entered the domestic capital too much, and the renminbi was passive and substantial appreciation.

< /p >

< p > by June, foreign exchange accounted for 41 billion 200 million of the negative growth. It was in the early June that the RMB stopped its appreciation for a long period of six months, and the RMB exchange rate began to consolidate.

< /p >

< p > it seems that the change of RMB exchange rate mainly depends on the direction of the capital flow in the international market. It is not the central bank's death. Then, in the overall downward trend of China's macro economy, when the Fed's withdrawal from QE is strong, why does the RMB appreciate sharply, not the other way around?

{page_break} < /p >

< p > < /p >.

< p > we carefully observe the operation of China's macro-economy. We will find that the rise and fall of the RMB exchange rate is not determined by China's macroeconomic trend, but depends on the size of the Chinese government's investment and the size of the Chinese government's determination to intervene in the economy.

This is because the 4 trillion big investment in 2009 made foreign funds taste the sweetness.

< /p >

＜p＞　　此輪可能即將開始的人民幣大幅升值，或與最近政治局會議以及兩次國務院常務會議進行的大力度的政府投資有關，有媒體計算僅僅各地即將興建的城市軌道交通就需要投資四萬億，而中央政府對鐵路的投資決心很大，剛剛批準1500億的鐵路債券就是其中最重要的因素，而棚戶區改造、城市地下管網建設，污水垃圾處理設施建設等等，所謂“經濟建設、人民生活必須的，而又是掣肘中國經濟發展的瓶頸問題”是這次投資的重點，因此有人大呼新的“四萬億”又來了，而房地產價格和土地價格的騰飛更是早已有之，因此境外熱錢吃定了中國政府必將再次傾其權力進行新一輪投資，這至少在短期來講對于外資是一個大好機會，怎能錯過?于是新一輪資金的入境就是可以預期的了，而于此同時，美聯儲退出QE由此前的明朗變模糊，美元疲軟也是影響因素之一。

< /p >

"P" foreign capital is in a downward trend regardless of the macroeconomic situation. In fact, in the past few years, there has been a trace in the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate.

< /p >

< p > for example, from May 2012 to October 2012, the RMB has a long devaluation process. At this time, the basic situation of China's macro-economy is seen from PMI. Both the official and HSBC are basically in the process of decline. At this time, foreign investment is not optimistic about China's a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > economic /a >, there are negative growth in foreign exchange occupations for several months, and negative growth occurred in April 2012 and July.

< /p >

In the second half of 2012, the main reason for the sharp rise of the RMB was that the government once again opened the investment train. P

The NDRC has released various investment projects continuously, mainly in the urban rail pit of local cities. In particular, a number of local governments have launched trillions of investment plans continuously, and the economic data in the latter half of last year have changed. No matter the official or HSBC's PMI has seen a sharp rise in the latter half of the year, the central bank has continuously reduced interest rates for two consecutive times, and the stock market has responded to the color of the stock market, which has surged sharply in the cyclical industry dominated by commerce.

< /p >

< p > in fact, under the current situation of China's economic development, the RMB exchange rate has basically reached the equilibrium level. The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate is more harmful than the disadvantages. The appreciation of the exchange rate not only makes the coastal small and medium-sized private enterprises mainly export, but also closes and closes, and the exchange rate deviates from the macroeconomic fundamentals of China. When the economy finally hits the bottom, a large number of foreign capital outflows will further damage the overall economy.

< /p >

"P". Therefore, the central bank is passive. In order to maintain the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, only the big hands buy the US dollar and put the RMB into the market, which results in the excessive funds of the market and disrupts the purpose of the central bank's macro-control. Last year and the first half of last year, the shadow banking industry was booming, which led to the 6 month's shortage.

< /p >

The Chinese government has to continue to implement a policy of massive stimulus to maintain social stability. Foreign capital is precisely the Chinese government's psychology that is bound to invest in the chariot of the Chinese government. It is a worry that once the government's ability to stimulate is insufficient, the economic structure will deteriorate. At that time, these funds will no longer fight for P, and the RMB exchange rate will face huge fluctuations.

< /p >