Five Ask Cotton Future Trend

< p > August 15, 2013, Mr. Zhang Jieyong, a leader of the Zhuer cotton industry group, accompanied more than 20 people from the China Cotton Storage Management Corporation, cotton traders and 400 cotton ginning enterprises to visit China's (Tianmen) cotton trading center and held an in-depth exchange of views.

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< p > this exchange and discussion is also a solid support and information platform construction for China's (Tianmen) cotton trading center for cotton mining enterprises in the Yangtze River Basin.

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Mr. Zhang Jieyong said on behalf of China's (Tianmen) cotton trading center in the upcoming 2013/14 store and storage year: "in P, China's open purchasing and storage policy makes the futures market more targeted on the stop loss targets. The United States is getting tired of the market's entanglement in whether to quit the QE3 issue. China's coming out of the reserve cotton outgoing policy has made the market prospect of foreign cotton more imaginative. Our" three dragons "imported cotton according to the full tariff, and felt the impact of cotton and domestic cotton consumption in India and Pakistan.

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After listening to Mr. Zhang Jieyong's speech, the China cotton reserve management company has also brought up the latest research ideas for cotton mining enterprises in the Yangtze River basin to help everyone grasp the future cotton trend: < /p > p

< p > < strong > 1, < a href= "http://cailiao.sjfzxm.com/Matertial/show/default.aspx > > American cotton < /a > yield reduction"? < /strong > /p >

< p > the distribution of precipitation in the United States is extremely uneven this year. Drought in the East and West is dead and waterlogging is dead.

The US Department of Agriculture released the report of the US cotton sown area at the end of June. It believes that the sown area of US cotton has decreased by 17% over the same period last year.

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< p > < strong > two, can India cotton play the role of "savior"? < /strong > /p >

< p > in the year of 2013/14, which is generally reducing cotton prices in the world, India cotton has sprung up. With the timely arrival and frequent monsoon rains, the planting area has increased significantly, and the prospects for output are bright.

According to the USDA7 month forecast, the global cotton output in 2013/14 decreased by 704 thousand tons over the same period last year, of which 831 thousand tons were reduced by US cotton and 217 thousand tons by China, while India cotton increased by 326 thousand tons.

The International Cotton Advisory Committee has adjusted the India cotton production in 2013/14 to the highest of 6 million 200 thousand tons in history.

However, it is too optimistic to rely on India cotton to fill the cotton gap in other cotton producing countries.

Because the India government is wobble about cotton export policy and will levy export tariffs in the near future, the export pattern of India cotton will not be known in the future.

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< p > > strong > three, < /strong > a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > strong > textile > /strong > < /a > >.

< p > at the end of October last year, textile mills quietly sprung up with the full tariff of imported cotton. The main reason was that the price difference between inside and outside cotton was huge, reaching 5000 yuan / ton. After paying 40% of the tariff, the price of outer cotton was at least 1000 yuan / ton lower than that of Xinjiang Corps's cotton auction price at that time.

In 2013/14, the state continued to implement the open storage policy. Once the price difference "dividend" appeared again, it was believed that the textile factory would continue to use this kind of quota free trade.

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< p > < strong > four, can the external yarn import be climax again? < /strong > /p >

< p > although the internal and external cotton prices are too large for the sale of foreign cotton in China, after all, the quota is limited. For most textile mills, the excessive cost of raw materials is gradually losing the competitive advantage of the products.

Because of this, the low price cotton yarn in India and Pakistan entered the market and seized the market share of domestic cotton yarn.

However, as China's appetite increases, the price of foreign yarn is rising, and exporters are becoming more and more powerful in pricing cotton yarn. Of course, if profitable, textile mills will not give up the way to reduce the cost of raw materials.

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< p > < strong > five, 2013/14 < a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp" > international cotton price < /a > continue to look at China's "face". < /strong > /p >

< p > because the vast majority of domestic cotton has been put into storage, the biggest doubt of the market is still how the Chinese government can meet the domestic cotton mill's demand for cotton. The core issue is how much cotton the government will sell and how much it will increase.

Taking into account China's continued implementation of the policy of no limit in the new year, the global cotton stocks will be further concentrated in China. The trend of international cotton prices will largely depend on the regulation policy of China's cotton reserves. < /p >

The above five conjecture will determine the cotton price trend in 2013/14. The most important factor is how to control the lifeline of resources in China and how to control it in the end. P

If the price of imported cotton is regarded as the bottom of ICE cotton, the deciding factor at the top is the scale of storage and storage in China under the new cotton inspection standard.

At present, the new GB is still in a fog for the market, and it is not known when the auction of the reserve cotton will be launched again. It can only be said that the international cotton price will be very difficult before all the unknown numbers become known.

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