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Output Has Failed To Drive Demand Growth, And Enterprises Are In Deep Mire.

2013/9/10 20:23:00 7

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in the first half of 2013, China's cotton < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > textile < /a > the economic operation of the industry was generally stable, and the economic operation index of Enterprises above designated size was generally good.

The price of cotton yarn and cotton cloth is stable.

under the influence of cotton policy, the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton is still large, the domestic market demand is low, the production costs of enterprises are rising, the attraction of imported cotton yarn is not diminished, and the import volume continues to grow.

Affected by the appreciation of the renminbi and other factors, the competitiveness of cotton textile exports has declined, and the difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises have further intensified.

market operation

production failed to drive demand up

figures: according to the statistics of National Bureau of statistics, in 2013 1~6, China's yarn production totaled 16 million 707 thousand tons, an increase of 8.8% over the same period last year.

In September 2012 ~2013 June, China's yarn production totaled 29 million 199 thousand tons, an increase of 11.62% over the same period last year.

tracking data of China Cotton Textile Industry Association show that China's yarn output increased by 0.74% compared with the same period last month, and the output of cloth decreased by 0.16% compared with the same period last month in 1~6.

In May, sales of yarn Market weakened, and sales of cloth were slightly better than yarn.

In June, raw materials inventory increased, import cotton and chemical fiber inventory grew rapidly, yarn inventory grew 7.3%, and cloth inventory grew by 1.2%.

analysis: in the first half of 2013, although the price of cotton in China is still relatively high, yarn production is still increasing. The main driving force comes from the growth of cotton blended yarn and purified yarn, and the consumption of cotton has not increased significantly.

the increase in yarn production has not driven up the demand for downstream, and the demand for yarn market is weak and sales are weakening.

Especially after entering the May, the number of enterprise orders was reduced, and the market was hard to sell, resulting in a substantial increase in the stock of enterprises, which brought difficulties to the normal operation of enterprises, especially the difficulties of small business.

small business is in deep mire.

figures: Statistics of the National Bureau of statistics show that in the 1~5 months of this year, the main business income of Enterprises above designated size increased by 15.5% over the same period last year, the total profit grew by 21.2% year-on-year, the value of export delivery increased by 12% compared to the same period last year, the amount of losses increased by 20.2% compared with the same period last year, and the proportion of the deficit increased by 13.7%, and the number of new projects was 1119.

China Cotton Textile Industry Association's survey data show that, in terms of start up, the operation rate of large enterprises is 85%~90%, the operating rate of medium-sized enterprises is about 65%, and the operating rate of small enterprises is 30%.

analysis: analyzing the data of the National Bureau of statistics, we can see that in the first half of this year, the economic indicators of Enterprises above designated size were running well, the total profit and the value of export delivery increased rapidly, the amount of losses decreased, the deficit increased, and the weaving enterprises increased more slowly than the spinning enterprises.

According to the survey data from China Cotton Textile Industry Association, large enterprises started well, and medium-sized enterprises continued to operate, while small businesses ceased production and production restriction further intensified.

at present, cotton textile enterprises can be said to be on ice and fire days. Large enterprises can still maintain certain profits at high cost and have corresponding quotas for imported cotton. They have certain right to speak in the links of product technology and raw material procurement. Although their profits are reduced, they are relatively resistant to risks, while a large number of small and medium enterprises are subject to high cost of raw materials and labor costs, and export competitiveness is weakened. Most small businesses suffer serious losses, and many enterprises go bankrupt directly.

According to a survey conducted by the China Cotton Textile Industry Association, about 17 thousand people in the three counties of the Southwest Shandong Province have lost their jobs, accounting for about 50% of the total number of employees. The family of 3 households has affected about 50 thousand people's lives.

"feed" is released slowly .

figures: as of July 31st, the total number of cotton reserves was 3 million 720 thousand tons in 2013/2014, with a total turnover rate of 24.68%, of which 920 thousand tons of imported cotton were traded, and the total paction price was 19123 yuan / ton. At present, the national stockpile cotton inventory is about 7 million tons.

statistics show that by the end of July 2013, the number of imported cotton quotas was about 2 million 600 thousand tons, of which the quota allocated to cotton reserves was about 1 million 100 thousand tons.

In July 31st, the end of the current round of filming and storage, together with the 2014 cotton purchase and storage will start soon, the State Treasury will face enormous inventory pressure.

analysis: in order to stimulate the digestion of cotton reserves, this year the state implemented the policy of linking cotton import quotas to cotton purchasing and purchasing amount for the first time. Although the implementation of this policy did allow some enterprises to get the quota for the first time and expand the beneficiaries of the quota, the volume and progress of cotton reserves remained slow, and most enterprises did not really benefit from it.

according to the enterprise, the storage price of national cotton storage is too high, and enterprises can not organize a large number of funds to participate in the auction.

Secondly, there are many problems in the quality of cotton reserves, which can not meet the cotton demand of spinning enterprises.

In the enterprise survey of China Cotton Textile Association, the enterprises generally reflected that the actual grade of cotton in the reserve cotton did not conform to the public inspection, the weight loss and the three silk short staple rate exceeded the standard.

In addition, the management of reserve cotton is out of order and charges are not standardized, and the operation cost of textile enterprises is also increased.

Import and export

the charm of foreign goods is not reduced.

figures: according to the data of the General Administration of customs, in 2013 1~6, China imported 2 million 410 thousand tons of cotton, down 21% compared to the same period last year, and imported 965 thousand tons of cotton yarn, an increase of 45.8% compared with the same period last year, 266 thousand tons of exports, an increase of 16% over the same period last year, and 39 thousand tons of cotton fabric imports, down 6.5% from the same period last year, with 457 thousand tons, down 16.6%.

In the first half of P > 2013, Pakistan, India and Vietnam are still the three main markets for China's cotton yarn imports.

In the month of 1~6 this year, China imported 301 thousand tons of cotton yarn from Pakistan, imported 268 thousand tons of cotton yarn from India, and imported 101 thousand tons of cotton yarn from Vietnam.

Among them, India imported cotton yarn to cotton 8~25 branch, Pakistan imported cotton yarn with pure cotton 30~47 branch.

analysis: in the first half of the year, the number of cotton imports in China changed continuously in 2012, and the number of imports began to decline.

The reason is that the number of imported cotton in 2012 is large. Secondly, it may be because some textile enterprises get smaller quotas per month, and the plan will then be used centrally.

Although imports have declined compared with the same period last year, enterprises still regard imported cotton quotas as "straws", especially small and medium-sized enterprises. Imported cotton can be used, which means that enterprises can continue to produce and operate.

Compared with the same grade of cotton yarn made in China, India and Pakistan cotton yarn has a very obvious advantage in price. The price is cheap, the charm of the formal "foreign goods" is also the reason why it has been sought after by domestic enterprises. P

At present, domestic OE10 pure cotton yarn price is higher than India goods 870 yuan / ton.

domestic goods are still "noble" .

figures: in the second quarter of this year, the average cotton price difference is still around 4900 yuan / ton at home and abroad.

At present, the price of foreign cotton is still strong, and the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices has not been greatly reduced.

based on raw material advantages, the price of pure cotton yarn in India and Pakistan is much lower than the price of Chinese yarn. Even the price of pure cotton yarn in some countries is almost the same as that of cotton in China. The attractive price advantage makes the number of imported cotton yarn greatly increased since 2012. Although the price advantage of India and Pakistan yarn is still significant, it also promotes the price rise of some imported yarn products.

since the second half of last year, the price of 32 pure cotton yarns in Pakistan has increased steadily. In July this year, the price of the same grade yarn was higher than that of our country, which was about 850 yuan per ton.

the average price of China's cotton yarn imports in this year is 20460 yuan / ton, while the average export price is 30380 yuan / ton.

In the main import and export markets of cotton textiles in China this year, 1~6 exports to Europe increased by 11.6%, while imports dropped by 3.3%; exports to the United States decreased by 2.4%, imports increased by 148.8%; exports to Japan decreased by 11.2%, imports dropped by 12%; exports to ASEAN increased by 25.1%, and imports increased by 50.2%.

analysis: if we use one word to describe China's cotton textile market, it is not "expensive".

From 2011 to present, the comparison of cotton price movements at home and abroad shows that since the beginning of the implementation of the policy of temporary cotton purchase and storage in September 2011, domestic cotton prices have begun to deviate from the market volatility, which is higher than the smooth operation of international cotton prices.

Because of this, China has great demand for international cotton and the international cotton price has been strengthened.

cotton yarn is also more expensive in our main import and export products.

The price of cotton yarn is higher than that of import price, and the yarn count of export is higher than that of import.

That is to say, China's cotton yarn count is high and its price is high. Although the price is not dominant, its technology level is much higher than that of foreign countries.

But since May, China's pure cotton yarn has been affected by market demand, and its growth has been weak, and prices have dropped slightly.

Unlike cotton yarns, the import price of cotton fabrics in China is higher than the export unit price, which means that our country has much room for improvement in the field of high-grade cotton fabrics.

in the main import and export markets of cotton textiles in China, the market demand of the United States has been rising sharply, and the European and Japanese markets are showing a continuous downturn, while the ASEAN market is the main trading area of China's cotton textiles.

post market forecast

inventory and capital pressure increased

according to the above data analysis and conclusion, the cotton textile industry in the first half of the year mainly has the following problems: first, the weak market demand and the reduction of orders.

The two is the end of July, the end of storage, the cost of enterprise cotton increased.

Three, the quality of cotton reserves is high, the price is high, and the demand for imported cotton is large.

The four is the rising price of imported yarn, and the difficulty of downstream small weaving enterprises is aggravating.

Five, cotton price difference continued, demand is low, domestic costs rise, RMB appreciation, textile export competitiveness decline.

post market situation from the supply of raw materials of cotton, because the port cotton inventory is high, the import of national treasury cotton paction increased, port cotton inventory digestion is slow, the pressure will be on the price.

Some enterprises buy dollar settlement cotton goods to pay the foreign exchange period is approaching, the pressure of funds will further increase.

The number of enterprises in the cotton industry increased, and the inventory of disposable goods increased significantly.

The price of raw materials and intermediate products is high, and the downstream pressure increases, which affects the competitiveness of the whole industry chain.

from the perspective of textile enterprises, orders are decreasing, and the stock of cotton yarn and cotton cloth has an increasing trend.

Because of the reasons of cotton distribution, consumption and labor cost, product quality and so on, the price reduction power of large enterprises is insufficient.

The purchase of cotton is the first to pay, the product arrears, and the capital pressure of enterprises increases. The number of production stops is increased compared with the two quarter.

in terms of policy and supply and demand, the implementation of the new cotton standard, the progress of cotton direct subsidy policy and the normalization of storage and storage will be the direction of attention. At the same time, attention should be paid to the 2013/2014 annual storage capacity and the purchase price of the new cotton seed purchase scale and the number of cotton production announced by 2013/2014 countries, which are very important for the operation of the enterprises.