Spandex Industry Capacity Growth Slowed Down Supply Shortage

< p > 1. consumption upgrading and leisure trend, < a href= "http:// www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > spandex fabric < /a > become trend < /p >.

< p > with the improvement of people's consumption level and the younger generation of 80's becoming the main force of consumption of "a" target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" and "clothing /a", leisure becomes the development trend of clothing fabrics.

Spandex, with its good elasticity, is the elastic fiber necessary for the dynamic and convenient high-performance fabrics.

Therefore, the demand growth rate of spandex in recent years is higher than that of garment industry.

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< p > price fall stimulates alternative demand.

With the rapid localization of spandex, prices continue to fall.

In 06 years, 40D spandex price was as high as 100 thousand yuan / ton, and dropped to 40 thousand yuan / ton in 2012.

The decline of price resulted in the change of "spandex" from "aristocratic fiber" to "civilian fiber".

At present, more than 50% of the world's < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > textile > /a > products and garments contain spandex components. About 60% of the domestic exports of textiles and their garments contain spandex ingredients. "No ammonia and no cloth" will become the development direction of the future high-grade textile and clothing.

In addition, the consumption structure of spandex will also expand from underwear to coat, female < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > dress < /a > to men's clothing, and gradually infiltrate into industry (automobile, airplane safety belt), medical treatment (bandage, wound paste, kneecap) and other fields.

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< p > 2. upgrading of domestic enterprises and increasing spandex demand < /p >

< p > because of the domestic and foreign cotton price inversion, labor cost rising and exchange rate and other reasons, the competitiveness of China's textile industry has gradually weakened compared with that of Southeast Asia.

The rising cost has forced the upgrading of the domestic textile industry, avoiding direct competition with other Southeast Asian countries in the low-end cotton products, and increasing the production of medium and high end fabrics, thus increasing the demand for high-performance fibers such as spandex.

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< p > 3 < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/" > textile industry < /a > mild recovery, increasing operating rate, driving spandex demand < /p >

Less than P > exports are getting warmer and the textile industry is recovering moderately.

In the first 7 months of 2013, driven by the US economic recovery, China's textile exports amounted to $60 billion 730 million, an increase of 11.5% over the previous year, and clothing exports of $94 billion 140 million, an increase of 13.5% over the same period last year.

The revival of exports led to a modest recovery in the domestic textile industry. In the first 7 months of 2013, China's textile and garment industry profits totaled 44 billion 420 million yuan, up 12.3% over the same period last year, showing a trend of recovery at the bottom.

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< p > downstream recovery to promote the demand for spandex.

According to the statistics of China chemical fiber economic information network, although it is still in the off-season, the starting rate of the downstream warp knitted fabric, lace and yarn wrapping is 80%, 70% and 63% respectively, up sharply from the same period last year.

Inventory is only 15 days, at a historically low level.

Keqiao textile market prosperity index also shows that the spandex fabric market boom has rebounded rapidly this year.

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< p > we think that the rapid growth of demand for spandex in 2013 is mainly due to the superposition of the double factors of medium and long term upgrading of fabric consumption and the recovery of short-term textile and garment industry.

Looking forward to the future, under the trend of export recovery and upgrading of domestic fabric consumption, China's < a href= "http://www.91se91.com" > spandex industry < /a > demand is expected to maintain more than 10% growth.

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< p class= "MsoNormal" style= "margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt" > span lang= "EN-US" lang= "Microsoft";

< p > < strong > productivity growth is slowing down, industry supply is less than /strong > /p >

< p > 1. capacity expansion regression rationality < /p >

< p > 2010~2012 years, the capacity expansion is more, the industry boom and downwards.

According to the statistics of China textile net, the capacity growth rate of spandex industry has reached 17.9%, 13.8% and 14.6% in 2010~2012 years.

As of 2012, the domestic spandex production capacity reached 521 thousand and 500 tons, while the apparent demand was only 280 thousand tons, and the nominal capacity utilization rate was only 61%.

Industry overcapacity, spandex prices continue downward, corporate profits gradually downward.

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< p > 2013~2014, capacity expansion slowed down, and industry development returned to reason.

After the rapid expansion of the spandex industry, it has basically entered the stage of recuperation.

In 2013, only Xiamen Li Long 5000 tons / year, Xinxiang chemical fiber 4000 tons / year and so on not more than 10 thousand tons / year production capacity, in 2014 only Thai and new timber 3500 tons / year comfortable spandex, Fujian Changle Heng Shen 10 thousand tons / year, Zhejiang blue peacock and other 18 thousand tons per year production capacity release, capacity growth rate is 1.7%, 3.4%, compared with the past two digit growth, obviously slowing down.

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< p > the unit investment is larger, the construction period is longer, and the existing capacity is in the buffer period.

According to < a href= "http://www.91se91.com > > Huafeng spandex < /a >" annual agreement of 60 thousand tons of differential spandex project investment agreement ", invest and build an annual output of 60 thousand tons / year spandex project, with a total investment of about 2 billion yuan, that is, the investment per unit capacity will be about 300 million yuan; and the 10 thousand ton / spandex production capacity put into operation in Brazil at the end of 2012, with an investment amounting to 100 million US dollars or more than 600 million yuan.

But the return is cyclical, and the special type of production equipment is strong, so it is difficult to switch production, which limits the unordered expansion of the industry.

In addition, a new set of production facilities, from project planning, design to commissioning, will take at least 1.5 years, even if the technical pformation project will take more than 1 years.

The planned expansion projects will only be put into operation in 2015.

The demand for spandex will continue to grow from 2013 to 2014, which will give the industry a buffer time of 1~2 years.

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< p > 2. at full load, low dealer inventory < /p >

< p > the trend of fine denier spinning of spandex is obvious.

The upgrading of consumption, < a href= "http://www.91se91.com" > clothing quality < /a >, is also developing towards the high-end atmosphere. The range of spandex application is gradually expanding, and the proportion of fine denier yarn is gradually improving, and the structure is constantly optimized.

According to the statistics of China chemical fiber information network, 20D accounted for only 9.6% of spandex varieties in 2005. After 4 years, its proportion has reached 28.5%, while the proportion of 40D has dropped from 58.2% to 41.7%.

And the same device, compared to the production of 40D, the production of 20D, the cross-sectional area decreased by half, the output actually reduced by 1/2.

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< p > actual capacity utilization is at full load.

In the structure of Huafeng spandex product, 40D accounted for 50%, 30D and 20D accounted for 40%, the company converted 40D capacity to 57 thousand tons, the actual capacity was about 50 thousand tons, and the conversion coefficient was around 0.88.

Because domestic 40D products account for about 40%, which is lower than that of Huafeng spandex shipment. The conversion coefficient of industry is estimated to be 0.88 lower than that of Huafeng, assuming that according to the 0.85 calculation, the actual capacity will reach about 450 thousand tons by the end of 2012.

The output in the first half of 2012 accounted for about 47.8% of the annual output. According to the output of 182 thousand tons in the first half of 2013, the estimated annual output in 2013 was about 381 thousand tons, and the actual capacity utilization rate reached 85%.

In view of the overhaul of enterprises, the elastic capacity of equipment production capacity, and the partial production capacity of long-term discontinued production, the actual start-up has reached full load.

This is also true from our survey of Taihe new material and Huafeng spandex.

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< p > inventory of mainstream manufacturers and dealers is at a low level.

According to the statistics of China textile net, under the current market situation in the off-season, < a href= "http://www.91se91.com" > spandex industry < /a > manufacturers and dealers generally have low inventory and tight supply.

At present, the stock of the industry is at a low level for 15~20 days, and the average inventory in the first half of this year has been reduced by about 10 days compared with the same period in 2012.

We visited a dealer of Taihe new material and learned that due to tight supply, its purchase order was hard to meet and its inventory was at a low level.

With the arrival of the demand for spandex in 9~11, the supply will continue to be tight.

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< p class= "MsoNormal" style= "margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt" > span lang= "EN-US" lang= "Microsoft";

< p > 3. in the off-season price increase, the peak season continued to rise can be less than /p.

< p > the season of spandex will be excellent.

Generally speaking, the demand season of spandex is from March to May, from September to November, and other seasons are off-season.

The first half of the year is generally the spring and summer wear season, and the demand for fine denier yarn is large. In the second half of the year, it is usually the demand season for autumn and winter clothes, and the consumption of coarse denier silk is more.

China's < a href= "http://www.91se91.com" > chemical fiber industry < /a > Association statistics. In the first half of 2013, the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms exceeded the same period last year, and the terminal demand recovered moderately.

Spandex demand for good, tight supply, low inventory of enterprises, spandex prices all the way up.

From March to April, spandex increased obviously two times, and the industry was in the peak season. 40D price rose from 44000 yuan / ton per ton to 47000 yuan / ton in early May, or 3000 yuan / ton.

The spandex industry conference held in June 17th suggested that 40D price be raised by 2000~3000 yuan / ton, and other varieties increased by 1000~2000 yuan / ton.

In July 30th, the spandex industry held a meeting again. In view of the low inventory of the spandex industry, the resolution increased the price of spandex 30D, 40D specifications by 2000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of the domestic 40D specification is currently around 52000~55000 yuan / ton.

At present, the production and sale of weaving industry is still off season. The demand for spandex is not bad in the off-season. It is estimated that the price of spandex will be further raised in the peak season of consumption in 9~11.

According to investigation and study, some dealers predict that the price of 40D specifications is expected to rise to 60000 yuan / ton.

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