In The Third Quarter Of 2013, It Fell Below The Oscillation Platform From February To June In The Previous Period

In the third quarter of 2013, the futures price of Zheng Mian Index fluctuated downward, falling below the previous oscillation platform from February to June, that is, the oscillation range of 20000 yuan/ton. At present, the futures price remains around 19500 yuan/ton. Comparatively speaking, the price of the US cotton index in the third quarter was relatively strong, and the platform of the Zheng cotton index did not move down. It still maintained a large range of 80~94 cents/pound.

In September, China's cotton storage policy for the new year officially kicked off. However, at the initial stage of storage, the transaction of delivery and storage was not ideal, and only a small number of transactions were made until September 17. On the one hand, the number of new cotton on the market is less; On the other hand, this year's cotton inspection began to implement the new national standard, and cotton processing enterprises still need a transition time to adapt. Therefore, from the panel perspective, the implementation of the purchase and storage of cotton prices has limited strength. However, with a large number of new cotton coming on the market, it is expected that the incoming reserves will double, and the support of the purchase and storage policy for cotton prices will also gradually show. In the medium and long term, cotton prices are expected to rise slightly.

Based on the above analysis, cotton prices in the later period will be weak and rise under the support of the purchase and storage. However, the centralized listing of global new cotton and the suppression of high end inventory will become the biggest resistance to the rise of cotton prices; In addition, in the current economic situation, spin It is hard to have too much joy in the peak season, which will suppress the rising space of cotton prices. Therefore, it is judged that the cotton market in October will start to rise slightly, and the medium and long-term sustainable holding of multiple orders of 1401 contracts in the early stage distributed around 19600-19700 yuan/ton.

Different from cotton futures, PTA futures prices in the third quarter of 2013 showed a trend of first rising and then falling. In July, under the combined effect of domestic unrest in Syria, repeated US monetary policy and peak oil product consumption season, international crude oil started to rise. Affected by this, PTA rose significantly. In September, the Syrian problem tended to ease, the crude oil price began to loosen, and the PTA consumption peak season was drawing to a close. Under the dual pressure of the collapse of upstream costs and the decline of downstream consumption, the PTA market began to reverse.

Based on the following points: First, in the upstream market, it is difficult for crude oil to have more favorable factors to help it rise; In the spot market, the peak consumption season has passed, and the market's demand for PTA has begun to decline; In the downstream market, polyester enterprises entered the peak consumption season, but the replenishment behavior of the market has been basically completed before, which has limited demand for PTA. We believe that the probability of PTA futures showing weakness in the fourth quarter is high.

From the perspective of the terminal market, the textile industry as a whole shows signs of recovery. Although it will not have a great impact on the supply and demand structure of PTA in the short term, confidence in the market will still be boosted to a certain extent. In addition, at the end of the year, the market's expectations for the domestic economic policies of the new year began to strengthen. If the government introduced relevant measures conducive to the economy, it could not be ruled out that PTA would rebound slightly.

Based on the above trends and technical analysis, the operating range of PTA futures prices in the fourth quarter is about 7500~7850 yuan/ton without major macroeconomic events.