How To Rationally See Foreign Trade Data

< p > in the 7 and 8 months after a strong rebound in exports, September, < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/pioneer/" > foreign trade < /a > relatively weak data is unexpected: in September of that month, China's import and export total value of 2 trillion and 200 billion yuan was equivalent to 356 billion 80 million US dollars, and the exchange rate factor increased by 3.3% compared to the same period last year.

Of which, the export volume of 1 trillion and 150 billion yuan is equivalent to 185 billion 640 million US dollars, down by 0.3%, after which the market organizations generally expected to grow by 6.5%. Compared with the 9.9% increase in September last year, the market frustration is stronger. The import of 1 trillion and 50 billion yuan is equivalent to 170 billion 440 million US dollars, an increase of 7.4%; the trade surplus of 93 billion 480 million yuan is equivalent to 15 billion 200 million dollars, narrowing 44.7%.

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After a sober analysis, it is easy to see that the increase in export growth in September last year is one of the reasons for the decline in the year-on-year growth rate of exports in September this year, because such a high growth has greatly improved the base.

Exports in the 7 and August last year were US $about 170000000000, of which 177 billion 917 million US dollars in August, and 186 billion 331 million US dollars in September, a sharp increase of 9.9% over the same period last year.

With such a base, the growth rate of foreign trade in September this year is also predictable.

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< p > < strong > the shock of the emerging market economy < /strong > /p >

Another important reason for the decline of export growth in the period < p > September is that the economic turbulence in the emerging market has explode sharply since May. The structural problems of its economy make the vast majority of emerging market economies in the face of the dilemma of "Three Guarantees", namely "maintaining growth", "suppressing inflation" and preventing capital flight to stabilize the currency.

India, Indonesia, Turkey, Brazil...

No way.

Although the economic shocks of emerging markets do not affect their import demand in the next one or two months, the impact will eventually emerge.

As the emerging market accounts for about half of China's foreign trade, the shock of the emerging market economy will inevitably have an impact on the total volume of China's exports.

It is expected that the impact of the weakening of the emerging market economy on export demand will become increasingly obvious unless we restore the export growth of developed countries and eliminate the competitors' effect, which can offset the weakening of total import demand in emerging markets.

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< p > < strong > "RMB appreciation theory" is not established < /strong > < /p >.

< p > some analysts attributed the decline in exports to the 6%~6.5% appreciation of the real effective exchange rate this year and the pfer of traditional labor-intensive industries to Southeast Asian countries. This analysis can not be fully established at present.

Because the pressure of export is mainly due to the change of external market demand, the export price changes lead to relative weakening of price competitiveness and loss of market share. This is only a secondary factor, because many competitors have been eliminated in the economic turmoil.

When such competitors are eliminated from the crisis, the rise in China's export prices will not significantly damage relative price competitiveness.

Moreover, in the overall change in US dollar denominated export prices, the price rise caused by the rise in the RMB exchange rate is only a part, and a part of it stems from the price rise in Renminbi denominated in China.

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< p > the reason why the market appeared before was mainly due to the relatively strong recovery of domestic economy and exports in the first few months. Many agencies did not see the potential uncertainty. Once the trade operation fluctuated, there would be mood and expected rapid deterioration, which would impact the RMB exchange rate and so on.

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< p > < strong > the price advantage is weakened. The main reason is < /strong > < /p >.

< p > 1~9, the export price of China's traditional labor-intensive products increased, including the producer price and the < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/business/" > durable consumer goods < /a > the price of mechanical and electrical products fell. If the downward pressure of the export mainly stems from the weakening of the price competitiveness, then we should see that the export of mechanical and electrical products is growing faster than the traditional labor-intensive products, but the fact is that the export growth of traditional labor-intensive products is higher than that of the total export and the export of mechanical and electrical products.

In 1~9 months, the producer price index of producer goods of our country accumulated a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%, of which the producer price index of processing products producer decreased by 2.2% year-on-year; the producer price index of the producer of living goods increased by 0.2% year-on-year, of which food rose 0.7%, clothing increased by 1.2%, general commodity increased by 0%, and only durable consumer goods fell 0.8%.

In the same period, China's total exports amounted to 10 trillion and 60 billion yuan, equivalent to US $1 trillion and 610 billion, an increase of 8%; the export of mechanical and electrical products was 922 billion 990 million US dollars, an increase of 8%; the 7 categories of labor-intensive products such as textiles, clothing, bags, footwear, toys, furniture, plastic products exported 338 billion 50 million US dollars, an increase of 10.4%, higher than the total growth rate of exports by 2.4 percentage points.

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< p > < strong > negative influence is limited < /strong > < /p >.

< p > in fact, the foreign trade data in September brought us no negative effect either. The undesirable export data could at least inhibit some irrational rebound of the primary market after the "summer recovery" in China's economy, and improve the situation of Chinese manufacturing enterprises being squeezed by the high price of raw materials and energy.

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< p > with the "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_x.asp "> China's economy < /a > stability and recovery, in recent months, China's domestic extractive industry, raw materials producer goods producer price index decreased gradually, and rebounded in 8 and 9 months.

In April ~9, the producer price index of industrial producer of mining industry was 98.4, 97.7, 98.1, 99, 100.4 and 100.6 respectively, and the producer price index of raw material producer was 98.7, 98.9, 99.2, 99.4, 100.3, and 100.3, respectively.

At the same time, the average price of imports of commodities and raw materials also picked up, resulting in a reduction in the average price of imports.

In August, the average import price of China's iron ore imports was 118.9 US dollars per ton, down 7.6%; the average import price of soybean imports was 609.3 US dollars per ton, down 1.6%; the average import price of iron ore in the first three quarters was 129.1 US dollars per ton, down 4.2%; and the average import price of soybean imports was 605.2 US dollars per ton, increasing by 4.8%.

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"P > domestic and foreign upstream raw materials industry will increase the price of China's macro-economic recovery, which is not conducive to reducing the cost of many downstream industries in China and damaging the sustainable development of China's economy and society. In fact, these industries kidnap China's macroeconomic stability.

In order to remove the "kidnapping" of these industries on China's macroeconomic stability, the moderate deterioration of foreign trade and other macroeconomic data is more beneficial than disadvantages.

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