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Gold Appeared Three Times In Three Months, And The Sudden Drop In Price Was Negatively Related To The US Dollar And Stock Market.

2013/11/23 21:19:00 28

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< a > href= > http://www.91se91.com/ > > Gold > /a > go the bear unstoppable /p >

At P on November 20th, around 19:26 in Beijing, the COMEX gold market suddenly poured into thousands of huge empty bills. In more than 1 minutes, the gold price plummeted about 13 dollars, from 1272 US dollars / ounce to 1259.50 dollars / ounce.

Soon, such a move triggered a fusing mechanism, and gold futures trading was suspended for 20 seconds.

over the past few years, this phenomenon has become more and more frequent. For the gold variety, this is the third time in nearly three months that a sharp drop in price has led to the suspension of trading. This is also interpreted as the Golden Bear market pattern has been completely formed.

market interpretation, the reason why the gold market was so large on Wednesday was due to the October monetary policy meeting minutes released by the Federal Reserve.

Minutes of the meeting showed that with the improvement of the US economic situation, the Fed may "reduce the scale of quantitative easing" in the coming months.

at 20:00 on the 22 th of Beijing time, the price of gold futures in New York was 1241.6 dollars per ounce, down 32 US dollars from the opening of Wednesday, only one step away from the "three year old bottom" which was launched in June this year.

Meanwhile, the domestic gold futures contract has fallen by 26.71% this year.

at present, the market has come to a more consistent view of the decline in gold, that is, the easing of monetary policy in the United States will soon be over, and the global demand for gold will be reduced.

negative correlation with the US dollar, < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > stock market < /a > /strong > /p >

although the Fed's every move has become the most direct factor affecting the short-term trend of the gold market, from a deeper perspective, this year's gold bear market seems to be "irresistible". No matter what the Federal Reserve says, gold will fall.

Han Zhanjun, a gold analyst at CIC futures, told the first financial daily financial intelligence reporter that first of all, gold is a commodity priced in the US dollar and occupies an important position in the current monetary system. Financial attributes are stronger than other commodities. Most of the time, the relationship between the US dollar and the US dollar is the same. The possibility of a strong US dollar index is mainly the performance of the two largest economies in Europe and the United States.

"P >" the United States, the economic growth has been affirmed, and the withdrawal of QE has become a foregone conclusion, but the time for withdrawal is still controversial.

Europe is facing a deflationary plight and calls for the European Central Bank to stimulate the economy through monetary policy measures, such as negative deposit rates, and so on. Therefore, the US dollar will be stronger than the euro, and the US index will be stronger because the euro has the greatest weight in the US dollar index.

Han Zhanjun pointed out.

Huang Ruiyong, director of the Institute of contemporary gold and silver coins, Shanghai Finance University, also supports Han Zhan Jun's theory of the nature of gold falling: "for a long time, we all believe that gold is negatively correlated with the US dollar and positively related to the euro.

Gold has been dragged down by the euro recently, and only when the price of gold falls, can the value of the US dollar be highlighted, and the US dollar will be shorter than Huang Jinqiang in a short time.

> a href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > the rise of the stock market < /a > also forced the gold price to have a callback. Because of the continuous outflow of gold from the hedge assets such as gold, the negative correlation between gold and stock market trend is particularly prominent this year.

"P >" also has to mention the issue of fund positions.

Han Zhanjun said, "the world's largest gold fund ETF SPDR has been reducing since 2013, from more than 1300 tons to 856 tons, and this trend has not changed. The CFTC of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) last week dropped by 37% to more than 60 thousand.

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is gold suitable for the bottom reading gold?

from the gold demand trend report released by the world gold association this year, China's gold demand is a bright spot in 2013. This factor is also the biggest reason for analysts to think that gold prices have not plummeted this year.

"P >" Han Zhanjun also believes that while making gold is a long-term trend, the $1200 / ounce of gold in London is a technical support, as many spot companies are said to be at the cost of $1000~1200 / oz.

from the latest trend of some "smart money" abroad, there is indeed an opportunity to do more gold in the short run.

according to the recent position report of hedge funds to US regulators, many well-known hedge fund managers began to buy gold again at the end of the third quarter, though such behavior is likely to be short-lived.

once said, "the ultimate asset bubble is gold." George Soros (George Soros) started buying gold in the third quarter, and at the end of the season, it held a total of 1 million 100 thousand shares of Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF, worth $27 million 600 thousand.

in addition, David Einhn, founder of Greenlight Capital, David Einhorn, held nearly 8 million 800 thousand shares of Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF at the end of September, valued at about $220 million.

Einhn said: "I will continue to hold gold, which is beneficial to my portfolio."

however, a number of analysts interviewed by reporters have expressed caution about whether gold can buy this problem at present.

Deputy director of the Financial Futures Research Institute continued to warn investors that it is not very advisable for investors to do more now, but pursuing empty is risky.