Central Deployment Of 2014 Economic Development Plan To Weaken GDP And Highlight Reform

The central economic work conference will be held soon. The conference will deploy next year's China's economic development, which is particularly remarkable. P From the information disclosed at the previous meeting of the Central Political Bureau, we can see that the overall macroeconomic policy will weaken growth in 2014, highlight the < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/list.aspx ClassID=101112107105" > reform < /a >, and focus on improving the quality and efficiency of economic growth will become the key word for next year's reform. < /p >
< p > future economic growth will pay more attention to expanding domestic demand and releasing effective demand. In the process of economic reform in 2014, it is expected to further strengthen the development of environmental protection, health, pension and service industries, support technological innovation and equipment upgrading, simplify administrative examination and approval, strengthen excess capacity, eliminate monopoly, promote the marketization of oil and gas, railway and other industries, and strengthen the financial system's efforts to serve the real economy. < /p >
In the reform, P has gradually changed the mode of economic growth to focus on improving the quality and efficiency of economic growth. In this way, it will include desalting < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/list.aspx ClassID=101112107107" > GDP < /a > index examination, establishing green balance sheet and so on. Insisting on green and low carbon clean development, grasping energy conservation and supporting the development of eco-friendly agriculture will become one of the key contents of this central economic work conference. < /p >
< p > of course, making reform ahead of growth does not mean allowing China's economy to "hard landing". Employment goals and social stability need to be maintained at an appropriate rate of growth, and upward inflation and liquidity crunch will restrict economic growth. In the short term, structural stable growth policies can partly hedge down the downward pressure on economic growth. China's economic growth target is likely to remain around 7.5% in 2014. < /p >
< p > the policy of "bottom line" for steady growth can stabilize the anticipation of economic growth. China's economy is shifting from high growth to efficient growth, which means that through the structural reform of the economy, the risks accumulated by unbalanced development will be gradually eliminated and a more balanced economic structure will be achieved. < /p >
< p > generally speaking, infrastructure investment will be the main means of steady growth and the main force to stimulate economic growth. The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee put forward to promote reasonable growth and structural optimization of investment. This shows that the decision-making level holds a positive view on further investment in fixed assets, but hopes to avoid excessive growth and will adopt different policies in different investment fields. < /p >
< p > 2014, the state will guide private investment, increase infrastructure construction in most fields, and promote the construction of new urbanization. Specifically, next year, capital construction investment will mainly be used for transportation, especially in railway transportation and water environmental public facilities management. < /p >
< p > in the central economic work conference, the importance of land management system reform and planning may be emphasized. Besides saving land, the meaning of new urbanization includes changing financing channels and strengthening social service guarantee. < /p >
In terms of consumption, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee put forward that we should speed up the development of new consumption growth points and actively expand the export market. P And education, health care, entertainment and other services have the greatest potential for consumption. Since the international financial crisis, the growth of China's market share in exports to traditional markets has stagnated, but policymakers are clearly trying to develop new markets by introducing new products and services to the traditional market. < /p >
< p > in the inflation situation, < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/list.aspx ClassID=101112107108" > economic growth < /a > moderate backdrop, shadow banking risk and QE exit restrict monetary policy space. Taking into account economic fundamentals, liquidity and warping factors, the annual inflation level in 2014 may be slightly higher than that in 2013. The overall target of inflation should be controlled below 4% next year. < /p >
Inflation is likely to continue upward in the first half of next year, the fluctuation of cross border funds will increase, and the monetary policy space will be limited. The adjustment of interest rate and deposit rate tools will be more difficult. The central bank may continue to combine the tools of open market operation, short-term liquidity adjustment tools and standing loans to enhance market interest rate guidance. The total volume of credit is still difficult to relax. It is expected that the M2 growth rate will continue to decline in 2014, and the annual growth rate will be around 13%. < /p >
< p > fiscal policy should take full account of the downward pressure of the macro economy, the hidden expenditure brought by local debt cleanup, and the necessary financial compensation mechanism for reform. The core of fiscal policy in 2014 should be to raise the deficit rate and further increase tax reduction. < /p >