The Absolute Principle Of Stock Market Development Is To Increase The Growth Enterprise Market.

< p > "the absolute principle of stock market development is to go up."

Li Zhenning, chairman of Shanghai Ruixin investment, reiterated his views at the first annual fourth annual award ceremony of the sunshine private placement fund.

After the meeting, Li Zhenning told the financial daily of the first financial daily about its current situation and future views on the development of the capital market, as well as some suggestions on policy.

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< p > for the current market, he thinks that < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/list.aspx Classid=101112107" > gem < /a > after being stir fried, it must produce differentiation.

Those undervalued blue chips will sooner or later usher in a wave of valuation fixing.

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< p > < strong > gem: /strong > > /p >

< p > Financial Intelligence: the biggest feature of the stock market this year is that the overall performance of the stock market is weak. But the gem has a structural bull market. What do you think of the soaring growth of the gem? < /p >

< p > Li Zhenning: the growth of the gem is good.

The growth of gem will help to support small and micro enterprises, support cultural creativity, network information, energy conservation, environmental protection, new energy, new materials and other enterprises related to economic pformation.

Many enterprises in the gem are organized according to this idea.

If the stocks of these industries go up well, there will be more PE and VC to invest in those companies that have not yet been listed. It is also very good in terms of economic pformation.

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< p > supporting the development of small and micro enterprises is easier said than done.

Obviously, the banking system is no longer viable. The establishment of small loan Finance Companies and the establishment of rural credit cooperatives to support small and micro enterprises are far from enough. It is still necessary to rely on multi-level capital markets to attract investors to invest directly in small and micro enterprises.

Therefore, the growth of gem is beneficial to economic pformation.

In addition, the growth of GEM has created conditions for IPO and refinancing.

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< p > of course, there are still many problems in the growth of gem. From last year's performance, the performance of the gem is not better than that of the small and medium-sized board, nor is it better than that of the motherboard stock.

On the whole, the characteristics of high growth of gem are not reflected.

In addition to the fact that a small number of companies really have the support of performance, a considerable part of them are dogs and dogs. Some companies have lost their performance last year and two years, but their share prices have doubled.

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< p > Why are dogs and dogs ascending? They are mainly speculative funds, especially large numbers of institutional investors.

Their own enterprises do not have high growth, but they are given 50 times and 100 times price earnings ratio valuations, and even some annual report losses and quarterly losses are also soaring.

Even good companies, in the context of perfect competition, are overvalued.

Cultural media is a good industry, but the companies that make movies and TV dramas strictly say they belong to item company. This movie does not mean the next one is good, the performance is unpredictable, and it is also cyclical and volatile.

This is especially true for game companies. The valuation of the Nasdaq market is ten times earnings.

Environmental protection is a good industry, but most of the people who do environmental protection are item company. There is not much technical content, and the threshold is not high. They are almost the same as construction companies. They can be valued only ten times.

High technology is valuable in inventions and creations. Our so-called Apple concept, Google glasses concept, < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/list.aspx Classid=101112108" > 3D printing < /a > concept stocks are basically concepts. They are not original, but actually they are foundry enterprises. As a foundry enterprise, Foxconn's valuation in overseas markets is only a few times price earnings ratio. Therefore, it is necessary to distinguish between real economic pformation and more concepts than actual ones.

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In addition to P, there is another big shareholder in the company, while the stock price is still rising.

Some institutional investors are also blending with large shareholders, deliberately creating good profits and taking advantage of large shareholders to reduce their holdings. All these phenomena deserve attention.

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< p > Financial Intelligence: the reason why many people are not optimistic about blue chips is that they still have scruples about China's economy.

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< p > Li Zhenning: I think China's economy is very good and the market is overreacting.

Compared with Europe and America, Chinese people have strong desire to earn money and are so diligent. GDP growth is more than 7.5%, or even higher.

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< p > other people worry about local debt, the scale of local debt is not more than 12 trillion ~13 trillion, but the annual revenue of land auctions by local governments is 3 trillion, the central government has 10 trillion and 700 billion tax revenue every year, the central and local tax revenue is 64 points, the local government has 4 trillion ~5 trillion, the central government also has the pfer payment, so the local annual income also has 7 trillion ~8 trillion, 12 trillion ~13 trillion pressure is not big.

In addition to local fiscal revenue, local governments also have state-owned assets such as state-owned enterprises.

This is the difference between China and the United States.

In addition, Detroit of the United States can declare bankruptcy, but China's debt is unlimited liability. The debts of the backward areas are always central subsidies, so the debts of the banks will not be returned.

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< p > from banks, many people worry about shadow banking and worry about the risk of bank financial products.

Bank financing products are actually American models. Their essence is from indirect financing to direct financing, that is, banks pform their savings and loan businesses into intermediary businesses through financial products, take intermediary fees themselves, turn depositors into investors, and directly assume project risks.

So on the surface, the proportion of bank loans has declined. In fact, indirect financing has been pferred to direct financing.

Many of the short-term financial products are banks' own management, which is the need for banks to move their positions. It is a disguised deposit interest rate marketization, and so on. This financial product is much more. If the deposit interest rate is released again, banks will not go to vicious competition.

Loan rationing will reduce the risk of banks themselves.

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< p > Financial Intelligence: but if real estate changes, there may be a chain effect.

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< p > Li Zhenning: many people think that the rise of China's real estate is a man-made bubble. I don't think so.

The rise in housing prices is basically a cost push.

Wages are rising, prices are rising, and currencies are depreciating. How can houses not go up? < /p >

< p > in the process of urbanization, demand is rigid, and the government has suppressed the supply of real estate for many years and strictly controlled the financing of real estate, resulting in the cost of capital of real estate enterprises far higher than that of ordinary enterprises.

In the case of shortage of supply, the reason for the rise of real estate is cost push. Only by increasing supply can we solve it.

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< p > as the government, let the real estate market be changed, encourage everyone to develop real estate, provide more loans, expand supply, and house prices can be controlled naturally.

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< p > < strong > four recommendations for regulatory policy < /strong > /p >

< p > "financial intelligence": in view of the current capital market situation, how do you think the policy should be handled? < /p >

< p > Li Zhenning: first, the SFC is changing the concept of management, requiring the listed companies to disclose information in real terms, and has no control over the ups and downs of individual sectors.

It is right for regulators to control the ups and downs. If regulators keep pressing the growth enterprise market, investors will not get a lesson.

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< p > Second, the growth enterprise market should reduce the standard as soon as possible and issue large quantities. There are millions of small and micro enterprises in China.

In addition, increasing supply can curb excessive speculation.

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< p > Third, rising stock market is the only way to enter a virtuous circle.

The stock market has fallen too much, which will have a negative impact on the public's mood and consumption psychology. Only property income has increased, so that ordinary people will be willing to spend.

Today, the size of A shares is more than 20 trillion, and the stock has risen by more than ten trillion. Therefore, the role of promoting investment and expanding domestic demand can not be underestimated.

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< p > Fourth, to guide the investment of "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/list.aspx "Classid=101112102" > blue chips < /a >, T+0 should be implemented, first of all in the SSE 50 pilot, so that the pactions of the blue chips will be more active.

The four largest state-owned banks have a market value of four trillion, with four hundred million or five hundred million turnover per day, and the trading is stagnant. How can they increase? Only when the paction is active can we activate the blue chips.

To make good use of the situation, it is better to give policy to Huijin Company, rather, to change the rules. Now it is the T+1 bought by T+0 and the trading rules are not equal. An unequal trading rule is to encourage sales to discourage buying.

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< p > the economy is actually a cycle.

Our policy goal is to let the market enter a virtuous circle.

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