Wei Jie Analyzes The Change Of Macroeconomic Situation For Guan Enterprises

Next year will be the corporate tax reduction year. Asset prices will be based on the Shanghai Composite Index in 2006. The annual increase in China's stock market is about 1000.

China's housing price keeps 5%-10% per year, and it will double in 15-20 years.

In 2007, share prices and housing prices were over the top, and now they are punished by economic laws.

GDP as an indicator to measure economic growth is scientific, and there is no problem. The problem is our pursuit of GDP growth.

China's annual GDP growth rate should be roughly 8% to 11%, higher than 11%, and coal electricity and oil pportation will be tight; less than 8%, all kinds of social contradictions will come out.

Therefore, there are generally eight or nine statements which are ten.

Income distribution national income this big cake is made up of three parts: state finance, enterprise profits and personal income.

In the past, the country became much poorer and the people became poorer.

Our development in the first 30 years is mainly to solve the problem of national wealth, and in the next 30 years we mainly solve the problem of rich people.

Tax reduction is a way to start personal consumption and increase residents' income. Tax reduction is a way.

In the past, I proposed to set the personal levy at 5000 yuan. I still insist on this standard.

Why does the macro-control policy change three times a year?

What indicators do enterprises rely on to make judgments and make decisions in a changing economic environment?

Invited by the Municipal Bureau of small and medium sized enterprises and the "face to face" of private entrepreneurs, Wei Jie, a professor at Tsinghua University, explained the macroeconomic changes and business strategies of the private entrepreneurs in Dongguan yesterday in the Dongcheng administrative office building.

Wei Jie believes that in grasping the macroeconomic situation, enterprises must seize the three prices of prices, investment goods and asset prices.

The next government economic policy will shift from encouraging exports to encouraging consumption to start domestic sales.

Government investment will focus on new energy, new material industry, equipment manufacturing industry, high and new technology industry and service industry.

The macroeconomic regulation and control policy has changed three times in a year. "Macro-control has undergone three dramatic changes this year."

At the beginning of the lecture, Wei Jie explained to the private entrepreneurs here in Dongguan: at the beginning of the year, because the growth rate of CPI (price level) and GDP (GDP) were too fast, the state decided to "double defense" as the main keynote of macroeconomic regulation and control.

But in June, after the new price and GDP data were released, the state found that although prices were very high, economic growth began to slow down.

The GDP growth rate in the first three quarters was only 9.9%, a new low in the past four years.

Wei Jie said that the changes in these three macro-control policies are gradually changing from tighter to opposite direction, indicating that the macroeconomic situation is indeed steeper.

Economic indicators should see three big prices, how to grasp the drastic changes of the economic situation, Wei Jie taught the entrepreneurs three kinds of prices - prices, investment prices and asset prices.

"Price is the most concerned indicator for the public."

Wei Jie said that price is the general level of consumer goods prices and is known as CPI in the West.

"CPI is too high or too low.

If we go too fast, inflation will easily happen.

If it falls too fast, it will easily cause deflation. "

Wei Jie combined with his research experience, told the scene of Dongguan private entrepreneurs, China set a limit for CPI is 4%-6%, beyond this limit, the state will consider intervention.

Accordingly, the price of investment goods, that is, the price of means of production, will be regarded as a reasonable interval in 5%-8%, which will result in overheating or undercooling.

Wei Jie believes that asset prices in China are mainly housing prices and stock prices.

"Asset prices are not the highest and lowest, but I think there is a reasonable increase."

Wei Jie said that based on the Shanghai Composite Index in 2006, the annual increase of around 1000 is more reasonable.

China's housing price keeps 5%-10% per year, and it will double in 15-20 years.

"In 2007, share prices and housing prices were over the top, so now they are punished by economic laws."

The consumption of three horse drawn carriages will be at the forefront. The economic growth is dominated by three carriages of exports, investment and consumption. Now the global financial crisis has occurred, and exports have been hit hard. It is not feasible to continue to rely on low cost advantages to stimulate economic growth.

Wei Jie said that next, from "global allocation of resources to occupy the international market" to "global allocation of resources to develop the domestic market".

The sorting of three carriages will also change from "export, investment and consumption" to "consumption, investment and export".

In order to start consumption, Wei Jie has prescribed five doses of Medicine: the state should increase the proportion of personal income in the distribution of national income, so that the growth of personal income will catch up with the growth of national finance.

Enterprises should raise the wages of labourers and increase the proportion of workers' income to primary distribution.

American residents' property income accounts for 40% of the total income, but China has only 1.8%. The government needs to stabilize the real estate market and capital market to make residents get property income.

Farmers account for the overwhelming majority of China's population. We should increase the income of farmers and backward areas through integration of urban and rural public goods and integration of property rights system.

High end manufacturing is a hot spot for expanding investment. To ensure that next year's economic growth rate is no less than 8%, the state will expand investment through tax cuts and borrowing.

"The profit of small and medium-sized enterprises is very thin, mainly to solve the employment problem, and should not be the main source of taxation."

Wei Jie predicted that in order to help SMEs overcome the difficulties, next year will be the tax reduction year for enterprises.

"In this way, we can stabilize business profits, maintain the capacity of social employment, and provide room for personal income growth."

Wei Wei Jie pointed out that the next expansion of investment will be "two investment and three non investment" - the industry with excess production capacity will not be voted, high polluting industries and high energy consuming industries will not be voted in; investment will mainly be directed towards resources and products of shortage, which are conducive to technological innovation and structural adjustment, and will help solve employment opportunities.

How can Dongguan's private entrepreneurs grasp the direction of investment?

Wei Jie said, "we must pay attention to four industries."

The first is resource industries, especially the two new industries represented by new energy and new materials.

Two is the equipment manufacturing industry, especially the high-end equipment manufacturing industry.

The three is the high and new technology industry, which will be the top priority of the new round of investment.

The four is the service industry.