Global Cotton Consumption Has Increased Slightly, And Domestic Stocks Are In A State Of Destocking.

< p > USDA predicts that the final inventory consumption ratio of cotton in the world, the United States, India, China and Brazil in 2013 is 87%, 21%, 35%, 160% and 92%, respectively.

Among them, high inventory in China and Brazil is the main reason for the increase in inventory at the end of the world.

China's three consecutive years of open storage and storage led to the amount of inventory, while Brazil's 2013 annual increase in consumption is expected to decline strongly.

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The global cotton production in P < 2013 decreased compared with the previous year.

The supply and demand report of USDA2 forecast that the global cotton output in 2013 was 25 million 402 thousand tons, a decrease of 5% compared with 2011, while consumption of 23 million 837 thousand tons, ending inventory of 21 million 3 thousand tons, and inventory consumption ratio of 85%, representing an increase of 1% over the previous year.

At the same time, USDA also predicted that in the 2013 year, the largest reduction in production in the United States and China was 24% and 6% respectively.

India and Brazil increase production, but not enough to make up for the reduction in output in the US and China.

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< p > based on the current performance of American cotton prices, by analyzing the price effect between crops, it is estimated that the substitution of cotton for other crops will be strengthened in 2014, and the planting area of the United States and cotton will rise.

On the whole, the 2014 US cotton inventory consumption will increase year by year, compared with the increase in cotton stocks and consumption.

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< p > in fact, the demand for cotton in India increased, and its domestic a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > Cotton City < /a > showed a certain degree of supply shortage, instead, it was a support for China's cotton market.

According to USDA statistics, the cotton surplus in India amounted to 1 million 306 thousand tons in 2013, a decrease of 150 thousand tons compared with 1 million 459 thousand tons in 2012, and a reduction of nearly 800 thousand tons compared with 2 million 90 thousand tons in 2011.

The golden age of India a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > cotton < /a > has already passed, and its pressure on cotton prices in China has been reduced.

The International Cotton Advisory Committee is forecasting that the surplus of cotton in India will be further reduced to 800 thousand tons in 2014, a decrease of 400 thousand tons compared with that in 2013.

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At present, China occupies nearly 60% of the final inventory in the world. The inventory of other production and consumption countries is at a relatively low level. In the future, the domestic cotton market will be dominated by < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > inventory < /a >.

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In < p > 2014, the protective sales channel of the country has disappeared, and the direct subsidy rules and corresponding methods have not yet been given, so that the main production areas, especially the real estate areas such as Shandong, Henan and Hebei, have a strong wait-and-see sentiment before they were opened in 2014.

Based on our estimate that the direct subsidy is more moderate, only Xinjiang's direct subsidy will be judged, the cotton planting area in the mainland will decline significantly, and the cotton output in the whole country will also decrease steadily.

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< p > from the beginning of 2011, China implemented the temporary purchasing and storage policy and carried out several rounds of dumping in 2012 and 2013. By the end of 2012, there were about 7 million 320 thousand tons of cotton in the national treasury.

On this basis, plus 2013 tons of 5 million 840 thousand tons of storage, and then minus reserves, the current state reserve theoretical inventory of 12 million 300 thousand tons.

It is estimated that by the end of 2013, the state energy reserve left about 10 million tons of inventory in 2014.

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< p > 2012, the inventory level of cotton industry in domestic enterprises is generally high. In the first half of 2013, the stock of major enterprises was lower than the average level in the past three years, and the demand for cotton was weakened by the sluggish market of downstream products.

Later, with the launching of the auction of throwing cotton and cotton and the release of the demand for replenishment of the enterprises, the industrial inventory will rise in the ring and year-on-year.

However, before the downstream demand is effectively improved, the level of industrial inventory will remain low.

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On the policy side of P, selling national reserves is the only option.

Judging from the formulation of national policies in the past two years, the reserve price will be set at 18000 yuan / ton.

The price can take an advantage in the price competition with imported cotton, and the extent of loss is also within the government's tolerance.

If we continue to sell national cotton reserves at this price, it will meet the requirements of textile enterprises for cotton consumption and achieve the goal of inventory policy.

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