Shen Danyang: China Should Not Persist In Exporting Because Of Choking On Food.

< p > by the voice of the voice of the Central People's broadcasting station, China's economic report was held recently. Shen Danyang, director of the Institute of economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Pei Changhong, vice president of University of International Business and Economics Zhao Zhongxiu and other officials from the official and academic circles discussed the current hot topics at home and abroad in the report.

< /p >

< p > "ten years after China's accession to the WTO, now it is facing a new era, and it is also a fighting period, in fact, it is the reshaping period of trade rules."

Zhao Zhongxiu, vice president of University of International Business and Economics, said.

He believed that China was a student in the past, constantly learning and familiar with the rules of the market economy, and strive to practice, "scored excellent results."

However, in the period of reshaping the trade rules, the role of identity has begun to undergo a new change. We must follow the rules of "heaven" and "enter the land". "Heaven" should take part in the formulation of international economic rules.

< /p >

< p > < strong > Global a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > value chain effect < /a > expansion < /strong > /p >

< p > in the International Monetary Fund's report last year, the share of developing countries in the global economy for the first time approached 50% in 2013, and this is expected to become a trend.

But recently many emerging economies are also in trouble. After the withdrawal of the United States, the capital fled, causing many developing countries to get into trouble.

< /p >

< p > in fact, China's production capacity and consumption are expanding, but the way of expansion has changed.

Large enterprises continue to innovate and master core technologies, but give them to others.

For example, China's large number of enterprise processing trade, in fact, is equivalent to physical strength and production, but there are not many resources, so it is necessary to import iron ore and crude oil.

In this way, China's trade structure shows that imports are ranked first in crude oil and second in iron ore.

< /p >

< p > a hot topic in recent two sessions is fog and haze.

In fact, this keyword has been extended from 2013 to 2014.

In 2012, China's carbon emissions accounted for nearly 30% of the world's total, but experts' analysis showed that 1/4 was generated by consumption.

Although the proportion of production in Europe has decreased, real consumption is also increasing.

So per capita emissions caused by consumption have been rising, but China has left "carbon to itself".

The conclusion is that China's trunk business needs to rise in the value chain, and the ultimate goal is to become a big business.

Whether the "import" or "go out" enterprises, whether processing trade or general trade, are a node in the global value chain, they need to consider the global effect more.

< /p >

< p > < strong > exports improve supply side, domestic demand beware of < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp > debt crisis < /a > /strong > /p >

"P >" service trade "in the key words, China's gap is still very obvious.

Our ratio of service trade to goods trade is about 15:100, which is equivalent to only 600 billion of service trade.

But in the United States, this figure exceeds 30%.

Therefore, we need to change from big country to strong country, from quantitative change to qualitative change. The process is still very long.

Zhao Zhongxiu said.

< /p >

< p > > Pei Changhong, director of the Institute of economics of the Academy of Social Sciences, said in the report that at the end of the 12th Five-Year, China accounted for more than 13% of the world's goods exports.

In 2025 or late 15th Five-Year, it will reach 20%, which will be basically the same as China's population in the world population.

Export intensity reaches the world median line level.

< /p >

< p > since China's economic development entered a new stage in 2009, the potential growth of the economy began to decline from factor growth to structural change.

"This is not the economy that you invest in trillions of investment. The real crux is to raise the potential growth rate, that is, to improve the supply side of the economy."

Pei Changhong said.

< /p >

< p > although the speed of China's import and export trade is slowing down obviously, or even one digit growth, it is still higher than the speed of world trade.

Even though China's foreign trade was negative in 2009, its export market share is still rising.

Pei Changhong believes that this shows a rule that the growth rate can be deprived and the world share is not deprived.

"Unlike foreign trade, GDP can not be put into comparison. The reasonable range of China's foreign trade growth can only refer to world trade.

If exports are four to five percentage points higher than world trade, China will achieve the goal of steady growth in the world's share, which is a reasonable interval for the growth of China's goods export trade.

As for the improvement of the supply of foreign trade, on the one hand, we should expand the import of goods, aiming at different types of products, such as impact products, capital goods, intermediate goods and consumer goods.

For example, the impact products are grain, cotton and oil products, which are the fastest and the tariff is very low, but grain and cottonseed oil should be imported reasonably because there are too few land in China.

< /p >

On the other hand, to improve exports, we should also guard against the domestic debt crisis of P.

Zhu Zhenxin, a macro researcher at Minsheng securities, believes that interest rates will rise in the medium to long term, which will cause a debt crisis in Chinese style.

< /p >

< p > "I have received two calls lately.

The first kind of call is to sell a house. In the past two years, this is never going to happen. You can't see the room in the house. Now it's all there.

Another change is the promotion of financial products, as well as text messages, the highest yield of more than 7%, which is actually a direct manifestation of the financial crisis.

Zhu Zhenxin believes that the first thing that affected the crisis was the real estate industry.

Now we are likely to face the third wave of the risk of house price fluctuations. Many places have cancelled the discount of real estate loans, and then raised the rate of down payment. This is actually a kind of interest rate change.

Financial management reflects the rising cost of capital now, that is to say, the burden of our debt service is gaining weight. The rise in house prices has offset the pressure of repayment, but now it is not.

If this risk continues, it may cause the break of the debt chain, and directly to the financial enterprise, the most vulnerable place in the financial enterprise, the first is the small and medium commercial banks, and the second is the trust company.

< /p >

< p > < strong > enlarging < a href= > http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp > export > /a >, emphasizing the new competitive advantage < /strong > /p >

"P >" many scholars at home and abroad believe that as China's investment rate has remained around 45% for many years, there has been a huge overcapacity.

So when domestic consumption is not enough to absorb these capacity, excess capacity can only be found outwards.

To make up for the increase in capacity brought by high investment seems to be feasible in theory, but in fact faces complex and intractable problems.

The decline in external demand and consumption growth is not the same as the rise or fall. Some people believe that excessive external demand has affected domestic demand.

< /p >

When it comes to how China's foreign trade competes for new advantages, Shen Danyang believes that only by further opening up can foreign trade be pformed from scale expansion to quality and efficiency, and from cost and price advantages to comprehensive competitive advantage.

"First of all, we must adhere to exports. Secondly, we must continue to maintain the balanced development of imports and exports. Third, we need quality and efficiency. Fourth, we must strive to form a new competitive edge in foreign trade. The core is technology, brand, quality and service to form a new advantage."

< /p >