RMB Exchange Rate Is Expected To Maintain Broad Oscillation In The Short Term.

Against the backdrop of a sharp fall in the dollar index overnight and falling below the 80 point mark, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar in April 9th has been slightly stronger. However, the spot exchange rate in the early morning was sharply higher, but it was still blocked by a large number of foreign exchange purchases. Analysts said that in the short and medium term, the US dollar index is still hard to get rid of the declining trend, and the RMB exchange rate is still in the face of a sharp downturn. In the short term, the RMB exchange rate is expected to continue to maintain a broad oscillation pattern.

　 　 Spot rate Unable to stand firm 6.20 pass

In the case of investors waiting for the minutes of the latest meeting of the Fed (the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting minutes from 18 to 19 March will be announced at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on April 10th), the US dollar index fell unexpectedly in the international foreign exchange market in April 9th. In February, when the French trade deficit in February and the UK's industrial production in February were slightly favorable economic data, Pound The US dollar index fell sharply to 0.58% points to 79.76 points, and hit a new low in more than half a month.

On Wednesday (April 9th), the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar showed a stronger trend, but the strength was not very prominent. China's foreign exchange trading center on Wednesday announced that in April 9, 2014, the middle price of the US dollar against the RMB exchange rate in the inter-bank foreign exchange market was $1 to RMB 6.1490 yuan, down 37 basis points from Tuesday's 6.1527. As a result, the central parity of the RMB exchange rate recorded a second consecutive rise.

In the spot exchange rate, due to overnight dollar In the early morning of Wednesday, the US dollar opened 6.1890 against the spot exchange rate of RMB, and the opening rate was 78 basis points, and it dropped 108 basis points to 6.1860. However, with the gradual influx of the market purchase of foreign exchange, the exchange rate quickly rushed to the top 6.19. In the afternoon trading session, the US dollar further increased to the spot rate of RMB, closing the times 6.2005, a small increase of 37 basis points or 0.06% on Tuesday. So far, since March 24th, the spot rate of RMB has not been able to stand firm 6.20 integer pass for 11 consecutive trading days.

On the offshore market, the US dollar spot CNH exchange rate on the Hongkong market continued to run near 6.20 in the market on Wednesday, which is basically closer to the spot exchange rate of the domestic Renminbi. The overseas dollar against the RMB 1 year non principal forward exchange rate (NDF) on Wednesday was placed on the 6.2250 front line, continuing the performance of the major offshore RMB exchange rate at the recent stage, which was weaker than the spot exchange rate in the domestic market.

　　 Short term trend continues to focus on consolidation.

On the basis of the central parity of RMB exchange rate, spot exchange rate and offshore market exchange rate on Wednesday, market participants said that the relative neutral characteristics of RMB exchange rate continued at this stage. Looking forward to the trend of RMB exchange rate in the near future, combined with China's economic fundamentals, market expectations, balance of foreign exchange purchasing power and the trend of US dollar index, analysts pointed out that the short-term RMB exchange rate is expected to be dominated by a broad trend of consolidation.

A major foreign exchange trader in Shanghai said that when the US dollar spot exchange rate was less than 6.19 in the recent market, the buying and selling of foreign exchange outlets tended to be concentrated, showing that the confidence of the parties in recovering the renminbi was very low. But on the other hand, after the early stage of derogatory action, the trend of further shorting the trading power of the renminbi is also extremely cautious. In particular, the real return of a strong dollar is much lower than that of investors. Emerging market currencies are also gradually becoming stable. The space for RMB exchange rate to weaken in the short term is not obvious.

In addition, the market participants also indicated that the specific measures for macroeconomic growth at the next stage and the latest trade situation in the import and export sector could become a new trading clue for the market. In particular, the March trade figures to be released on Thursday (April 10th) are worth our attention and analysis.

This week, Anxin securities issued a research report that the depreciation of the RMB since February was accompanied by a rapid decline in the interest rate of funds. There is a close correlation between the decline in interest rates and the obvious deceleration of the recent economic growth. As the economy stabilizes, private sector investment is likely to rise again, and medium and short-term interest rates are beginning to stabilize. The yuan is expected to re-enter the slow appreciation channel at the beginning of the two quarter of this year and the beginning of the three quarter. China Merchants Bank's latest view also holds that in the medium term, the real interest rate difference between the RMB and the US dollar will remain at an attractive level, which determines that the RMB will still have a strong momentum of appreciation in the medium term. Without considering the intervention of monetary authorities, it is estimated that there will be 3% to 5% appreciation in the next 6 to 12 months.