Ye Tan: How To Strike A Good Battle For The Marketization Of The RMB Exchange Rate?

The steep decline in the renminbi against the US dollar will come to an end. < p >

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P, a US Treasury official, said recently that closely watching China's move to lower the RMB exchange rate means a change in China's policy and triggering a new round of competitive currency devaluation.

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P and April 10th, the IMF and G20 finance ministers' meeting will be held in Washington, urging member states to implement more bold structural reforms to promote economic development.

Before the meeting, the US government needed to take a stance on the RMB exchange rate with a significant devaluation in the first quarter. There were two main concerns: whether the RMB exchange rate was manipulated by the government and whether the devaluation of the RMB would cause the trade entities to compete for depreciation and promote exports.

The US Treasury official's position was slow and neutral, and no further moves were made after the first significant devaluation of the renminbi.

In fact, no foreign exchange reform in one country can get rid of the influence of the Federal Reserve or the US Treasury.

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The exchange rate of RMB P is at the critical point.

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< p > previously RMB < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > depreciation > /a > a large margin, there was not much room for maneuver. In the first quarter of this year, the RMB depreciated against the US dollar by about 2.6%, which almost recalled the full year rally in 2013.

From the RMB to us dollar K line, we can see that since the end of March, the RMB and the US dollar are at a stalemate and no longer depreciate unilaterally.

The sharp depreciation of the RMB not only broke the market's expectation of unilateral appreciation of RMB, but also made the people's Bank of China open its hands to continue reform. In March 17th, the fluctuation of RMB against the US dollar expanded from 1% to 2%.

About 7.5% of GDP and 2.5% of CPI are not enough to keep the RMB exchange rate going down.

We should soberly see that the downward continuation of the RMB will be unfavorable to China's economy. Once the false confidence is realized, the lack of investor confidence and the loss of a large amount of funds will lead to the collapse of domestic product prices and the creation of a debt crisis, leading to the loss of RMB as a reserve and investment variety.

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< p > RMB < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > unilateral appreciation > /a > space is also not big.

People's Bank of China officials have repeatedly said that China's trade surplus has shrank, and its share of GDP has remained at around 2.6%, squeezing the false trade bubble of arbitrage arbitrage, and no large trade surplus has pushed up the RMB exchange rate.

The difficult adjustment of domestic economic structure shows that the current economic structure can not resolve the pressure of RMB appreciation, and once the RMB depreciates for a long time, it will inevitably arouse strong doubts from its trade partners.

China hopes to integrate into the post WTO era of the international trade system and become an important member of the FTA agreement. It means that we must respect the ideas of our trade partners and learn win-win thinking.

Unilateral depreciation is not good for China. Internal delayed reform is a strong enemy outside. If China is out of the global trading system, the appreciation or depreciation of the renminbi will be meaningless.

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< p > price stalemate, volatility will rise sharply, and the trend of fluctuation will be confused by the market.

Before the RMB widened the range of exchange rate fluctuations, the fluctuation rate did not rise or fall. For example, when the fluctuation range of RMB against the US dollar was relaxed to 1% in April 2012, the RMB exchange rate continued to appreciate unilaterally, and the market expectation was unusually consistent.

The fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate, such as tigers' teeth, is not only a hedge fund yield hard to protect, but also a big test for domestic foreign trade enterprises.

Yiwu Business Daily reported on April 7th that a customs officer in Yiwu Customs said that it was estimated that every 1% appreciation of the renminbi, the operating profit of the cotton textile industry would drop by about 12%, the wool textile industry dropped by about 8%, and the garment industry dropped by about 13%.

Foreign trade enterprises are difficult to lock in profits and risks.

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< p > < a > href= > http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp > RMB > /a > marketization of exchange rate is one of the main campaigns of China's economic marketization. China is on the way to Germany's foreign exchange reform instead of Japan's old road.

Japan's economic development has reached a certain stage. In 1971, Nixon's attack on the dollar and gold and the Plaza Accord in 1985 marked the sharp rise in the yen exchange rate under the baton of the United States, which was a negative impact on exports. The Central Bank of Japan constantly depressed interest rates, resulting in a bubble of asset bubbles and a collapse of the bubble after the rise in interest rates in 1989.

The yen exchange rate has not appreciated in value, and has not been devaluated. It is a barrier for us to take the low interest rate to deliver ammunition to enterprises.

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< p > when a large number of foreign exchange reserves, huge trade surplus, capital return and total factor productivity are comprehensively upgraded, it shows that the exchange rate has an internal driving force, and the quality of the economy is enough to digest the negative impact of the rising exchange rate.

The marketization of exchange rate must be marketization so as not to delay the aircraft.

When exchange rates rise, hedging negative effects with low interest rates is a wrong decision.

Japan used the low interest strategy in the two exchange rate rise in 70s and 80s of the last century, which did not change the overcapacity economic structure, but made a large number of low interest funds enter the real estate market.

China is currently in a slow rise in the RMB exchange rate. If the domestic low interest rate liberalization investment products, will inevitably lead to the real estate market continues to rise, eventually collapse.

The government hopes to import funds into the A share market, which is also wishful thinking. Who wants to follow the excess industry for a long time and become cannon fodder? < /p >