The US Federal Reserve Quits QE To Increase RMB Devaluation Expectations

< p > < strong > first, < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp > > US economy < /a > continued stable growth < /strong > /p >

In the three and fourth quarter of 2013, the US economic growth rate is 4.1% and 3.2%, which is far higher than the economic growth in Japan and the euro area. The US economy is once again the engine of global economic growth. P

In February, the US industrial production grew by 0.6%, higher than the 0% expected by the Federal Reserve, with the manufacturing output index expanding by 0.81%, creating a new high since 2013, indicating that industrial production in the United States began to recover from the adverse effects of severe cold winter in 2013.

Meanwhile, the US industrial capacity utilization rate rose to 79.2% in February, the highest level since the financial crisis.

The utilization rate of manufacturing capacity increased from 76.65% last month to 77.14%, and returned to 77% after being affected by bad weather.

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< p > < strong > secondly, the US employment and < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > the labor market < /a > continuous improvement < /strong > /p >

< p > unemployment rate is the key index of < a href= > http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp > fed < /a > monetary policy adjustment.

In February, the unemployment rate in the United States was 6.7%, slightly higher than 6.6% last month, mainly because the number of social workers increased by 264 thousand in February.

The current unemployment rate is close to the 6.5% unemployment rate of Lehman bankruptcy in October 2008.

From the number of new non farm jobs, we can see that the US employment market is improving. In February, the number of new non farm jobs increased by 175 thousand, higher than the market expectation.

Meanwhile, in the second week of March, the number of unemployed Jin people in the United States in the first week of March was 320 thousand, which remained at the lowest level in nearly four months, indicating that the US employment market is still going strong.

The Federal Reserve recently lowered its unemployment rate this year and the year after next. This year's unemployment rate is expected to fall from 6.3% to 6.6% in December to 6.1% to 6.3%.

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< p > < strong > Third, the real estate market continued to rise, < /strong > /p >

The bad weather in the fourth quarter of 2013, P, has brought some adverse effects to us real estate sales, but the US real estate market is still in an expanding trend.

In February, the number of new housing sales in the United States was 440 thousand sets, which was higher than 400 thousand units in six consecutive months, and residential construction expenditure reached 364 billion 400 million dollars a year, a record high since the financial crisis.

The number of new housing starts is 9 million 70 thousand sets, which is higher than the monthly average since the crisis.

At present, the US national housing stock is 2 million, which is only 5.2 months' sales volume, which is lower than that before the financial crisis.

In terms of housing prices, the price index of the 20 cities in the S & amp; P increased by 13.24% in January, up 10% over the 12 consecutive months.

With the improvement of climate conditions, sustained growth in employment growth and income growth, the real estate market will continue to boom.

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< p > < strong > Fourth, inflation remained basically stable < /strong > < /p >

< p > February, the US CPI grew by 1.1% over the same period last year, lower than the market forecast of 1.2%, and the growth rate was 0.1%.

Meanwhile, the core CPI grew by 1.6% in February.

The decline in energy prices is a key factor in low inflation in the United States. The main reason is that the shale gas revolution in the United States has increased the energy self sufficiency rate and reduced the cost of energy production and supply.

However, with the increase of consumption and the increase of capital expenditure, the US prices will rise moderately in the medium term.

The trend of reflecting the trend of inflation trend (the difference between the yield of 10 year treasury bond and TIPs yield) indicates that the US inflation rate will rise to 1.7% in 2014 and 2% in 2015.

Therefore, in the medium term, the United States will not face the risk of deflation, and at the same time, the pressure of inflation will not be great. The US economy will be in the golden interval of low inflation and steady growth. This will provide a good economic foundation for the United States to withdraw from unconventional monetary policy.

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