It Is Estimated That The New RMB Loan In March Will Be About 1 Trillion Yuan, An Increase Of 55% Over The Same Period.

April 10th, the central bank is about to announce March financial statistics, including new RMB loans and other monetary data. The big wisdom news agency combs the parties' prediction. It is estimated that the new RMB loans in March will be around 1 trillion yuan, compared with 1 trillion and 60 billion yuan in the same period last year.

In January this year loan Habitual increase increased to 1 trillion and 70 billion yuan, and in February dropped to 644 billion 500 million yuan. It is estimated that the new RMB loan in March will be about 1 trillion yuan, a significant increase of 55% in the ring ratio.

The bank's financial research center predicts that the new credit will rise to 10000 billion yuan in March, but still less than the same period last year, that is, credit is shrinking compared with other years. The reasons include the following aspects:

1) the loan to loan ratio is rigid. Banking The deposit liabilities continue to shift to the same industry liabilities, and the contradiction between bank deposits and loans is outstanding.

2) affected by the devaluation of RMB and capital arbitrage, foreign exchange accounted for a marked decline in March, and the deposit base was further constrained.

3) non bank credit financing cost There is a downward trend; 4) banks have the tendency to increase interbank assets and non credit corporate bonds.

CITIC Securities Research Report point of view, the impact of the Spring Festival, new credit in February is often less, but with the arrival of the peak season in March, and the rolling stock debt, credit will rise significantly, and the first quarter is the season of more credit throughout the year, so it is estimated that the new financial institutions in March 950 billion yuan.

UBS Securities Analysis said that despite the central bank's continuous liquidity in the interbank market, the liquidity environment was further relaxed in March. It is estimated that the new RMB loan will reach 1 trillion in March this year, which is higher than the February level and seasonality.

Lu Zheng commissar, chief economist of Industrial Bank, said that the level of new loans this year is likely to be 1 trillion and 60 billion higher than that of the same period last year. In the first two months, the economic growth rate is slower than expected, and the growth situation is grim. In March, the credit will be accelerated. At the same time, in the light of the rule of credit in previous years, it is estimated that credit will probably increase by about 1 trillion and 200 billion in March.