Uncertainties In The World Economy Are Also Increasing.

An economist and Professor Chang Xiuze, a researcher at the National Institute of macro economic research, "the intensification of the international financial turmoil has not yet been eased; the growth of the global economy has slowed down obviously; the uncertainty of economic development is still increasing."

This is the judgment of Chang Xiuze, a researcher at the National Institute of national development and reform, on the current situation of international economic development.

Chang Xie's "prescription" for our country to deal with various unfavorable factors includes: tax reduction, investment promotion, loosening of money, increasing tax rebate and raising residents' income.

"My personal judgement is that the financial turmoil is still intensifying, and signs of recovery are not yet seen. Preparations and corresponding countermeasures should be taken to deal with the most difficult situation."

Professor Chang Xiuze, a researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Institute of the national development and Reform Commission, was judged by an interview with our reporter.

He said that the total amount of loans China currently lent to the United States (including treasury bonds, US government guaranteed corporate bonds and other bonds) is about $1 trillion, and China's economy is closely linked with the world economy.

Therefore, China should actively respond to the adverse factors such as international financial turbulence and global economic slowdown. Regular prescriptions include: tax reduction, investment promotion, loosening of money, increase of tax rebates, and increase of residents' income.

Reporter: Professor Chang, the current international economic situation is complicated and changeable. Some people think that the financial tsunami is coming to an end. Some people predict that the global economy will be out of the middle of next year. How do you judge the current international economic development?

Chang Xiuze: I have three basic judgments on the current international economic situation: first, there is no sign of any relaxation in the aggravation of international financial turmoil.

In mid September of this year, when I was attending the international business economy annual meeting in Bolivia, I met Claudio, a former executive of Lehman brothers. I did not expect the news of Lehman Corp bankruptcy in a few days.

With this as a "fuse", the financial crisis began to spread across the globe.

More than two months have passed since then, and the international financial and economic situation has deteriorated further.

Two, the global economic growth has slowed down significantly.

At the end of 2007, the subprime mortgage crisis broke out, and global economic growth dropped to 5%.

By 2008, the financial turmoil broke out, and the economic growth rate began to decline sharply. It is estimated that no more than 3.9%.

Internationally, it is widely predicted that the US will be zero growth or even negative growth in 2009.

The euro zone will be similar to the US in 2009.

Japan has seen a negative growth in the third quarter of this year.

Emerging economies expect economic growth to drop to around 6% next year.

Under the precondition of zero growth or negative growth in developed countries, the global economy can barely sustain about 3% growth.

Three, the uncertainty of economic development is still increasing.

The US financial turmoil not only affects the global financial industry, but also affects the real economy.

In a short time, many large enterprises were in trouble. At present, Ford, general motors and Chrysler three big automobile companies are facing a business crisis (no 50 billion to 60 billion dollars are hard to get rid of the crisis).

The performance and assets of some companies are worrying. How many "time bombs" do not explode around the world are hard to make relatively clear estimates.

Uncertainties and uncertainties in the world economy are also increasing.

I have noticed Mr. Obama's estimation of the worst period of the US economy.

Reporter: what lessons do you think is worth considering in this crisis?

Chang Xiuze: from the perspective of the world monetary system, the US dollar dominates the world and is not bound by itself. This is a big institutional loophole.

At the G20 summit held in Washington recently, Europe, Russia and China put forward the idea of changing the "dollar led" world monetary system. From the perspective of the US economic development mode, the United States could be classified as "over consumption, low savings, and multi liability" mode in the past few years. This economic mode is difficult to sustain. The macroeconomic regulation and regulation of the US economy also have problems.

In short, expansionary monetary policy and slack financial regulation have led to so-called "prosperity", which has profound contradictions.

Reporter: I heard that you have recently conducted field research on the economic situation in several parts of the country. What have you found out?

Chang Xiuze: Recently, I have continuously investigated the Yangtze River Delta region (Wuxi, Nanjing and Ningbo), the Pearl River Delta region (Foshan and Guangzhou), the Hunan Liuyang in the central part, and Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei (mainly in the understanding of coal pressure port problem), Hebei, and so on.

The survey found that there are four problems.

First, exports have shrunk.

In the first 9 months of this year, China's export growth slowed by 4.9% compared with the same period last year.

From Wuxi's survey, export growth has dropped by 6.1 percentage points compared with the same period in 2007.

The decline is mainly concentrated in the textile industry because of reduced foreign orders and reduced export tax rebates.

In Dongguan, exports of toys, leather and other processing industries have shrunk.

Two, the growth momentum is weakening.

In October, the economic growth rate declined sharply, and the industrial growth rate was only 8.2% (17.9% in the same period in 2007). Some small and medium-sized enterprises have gone bankrupt, especially in some enterprises in the Pearl River Delta region.

Three is the difficulty of cash flow in enterprises, which is particularly prominent in small and medium-sized enterprises.

From 1 to September, a prefecture level city I investigated was short of actual funds from 20 billion yuan to 30 billion yuan.

The reasons for this phenomenon are rather complicated: first, the tightening monetary policy was implemented from 2007 to early 2008, and the banks strictly controlled the loan issuance; secondly, the market sales were not prosperous, and finished products accounted for capital; thirdly, the domestic banks had a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in their business decisions.

Four is the rising cost of business.

On the one hand, the cost of raw materials is rising; on the other hand, the cost of labor is rising.

In my research, I learned that in the short run, the cost of labor increased by 15%.

At the same time, the export tax rebate is reduced, land resources are reduced and funds are tight. Under the combined influence of many factors in the same period of time, enterprises will have problems in operation.

Reporter: in the face of rapid changes in the international and domestic macroeconomic situation, what policy adjustments do you think China should take at present?

Chang Xiuze: in response to these problems, the national macro policy has been adjusted accordingly.

There are three types of macroeconomic policies this year: "two prevention", "one insurance and one control", "expansionary fiscal policy + moderately loose monetary policy".

Specifically, the following "immediate countermeasures" should be adopted to deal with the current complex and changeable economic situation.

First, tax cuts are theoretically part of the expansionary fiscal policy.

Last year, the fiscal revenue was 5 trillion and 132 billion 100 million yuan (of which 4 trillion and 600 billion yuan was tax). According to the annual growth rate of 20% this year, it may be more than 6 billion yuan.

In the current situation, it is necessary to reduce taxes. Now, some specific measures have been put forward, such as the imposition of interest tax, the reduction of tax on housing pactions (including deed tax, stamp duty, land value-added tax, etc.), and investment in public facilities for 3 years.

This is worth paying attention to "value-added tax pformation", I think, this is not only a preferential policy, but also a "institutional change".

The full implementation of VAT reform will promote technological pformation and burden reduction for enterprises.

Secondly, investment drive.

There are usually two ways to curb the economic downturn: increasing investment and stimulating consumption.

By increasing investment projects, the economy may rapidly reverse the downtrend; stimulating consumption, enterprises will produce more and the economy will grow rapidly.

I think theoretically and strategically, the basic point of economic growth should be put on expanding consumption.

However, starting consumption is more difficult and effective.

The reason is that we must increase consumption material base of urban and rural residents and establish reliable and perfect social security system.

According to the theory of "investment multiplier", increasing investment will bring about a series of related industries.

Now the state has decided to start the 4 trillion yuan investment plan and invest in seven areas, such as residential, rural, infrastructure, public service, environmental protection, renovation and reconstruction.

I think there are three aspects to be noted: quality and efficiency.

Each investment project must carry out the necessary and scientific feasibility demonstration, and more should be compared with the input and output of the project, especially to prevent the traditional development concept and development mode from "inertia operation".

Two is the project "landing" (about 1000000 acres of construction land supply, and regional projects and land control index "asymmetry") and "land acquisition" problem.

We must pay attention to protecting the interests of farmers when solving the shortfall of project construction land.

The three is to prevent corruption in construction.

Again, it is monetary means.

Loan interest rate has now entered the downstream channel, and there has also been a policy guidance for canceling the scale of commercial bank loans.

In addition, another important means of monetary policy is financial innovation, which involves the reform of private private equity banks and so on.

A few years ago, I visited Vietnam and found that they had 38 private shareholding banks.

Of course, when we do, we must emphasize capital adequacy, and two, we need to strengthen supervision.

On the foreign trade policy, we should increase the tax rebate.

Over the past few years, tax rebate rates have been reduced to control exports.

At present, the export has shrunk sharply, so we should increase the tax rebate, especially the textile industry.

Generally speaking, the export tax rebate is to retreat first. After tax rebates, the profit margins of enterprises increase, which can stimulate the production of enterprises.

To increase income of residents, the key is to increase the income of farmers and urban middle and lower class.

There are two ways to increase farmers' income. One is to raise the income of rural farmers, that is, to raise the purchasing price of agricultural products moderately, and the government stipulates the minimum standard.

The other is to ensure the income of migrant workers.

While raising farmers' income, we should also raise the income level of urban workers and low security workers.

There should be new initiatives.

Yang Jing: editor in charge