Can The Dollar Turn The Tide? Yellen's Speech Has Attracted Much Attention.

There are still many concerns in the market today. In terms of data, Anglo American will issue key CPI data in March. In addition, Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen opened a speech at the 2014 financial market conference hosted by the Atlanta fed.

For investors, it is obviously more concerned about Ms. Yellen's speech tonight. However, from the foresight of the investment bank, it may be more likely that Wednesday's (Beijing time Thursday morning) Yellen's speech at the New York Economic Club is more critical. And from the historical point of view, the Fed's speech at the Atlanta Fed's financial market conference this evening tends to be more inclined to financial regulation, derivatives trading and so on.

Therefore, investors should probably keep more focus on tomorrow. However, considering that the time of Yellen's speech at 20:45 this evening is just the prime time for Chinese investors to trade, it is obviously necessary to pay due attention to it.

Australian dollar dollar During the period, it fell by 0.79%, the US dollar rose to 5.9% against the Canadian dollar and the US dollar rose to 3.29% against the Japanese yen.

However, in the last quarter, the Australian dollar rose 5.07% against the US dollar, the NZD rose 3.47% against the US dollar, the US dollar fell to 2.28% against the yen, and the US dollar rose to 0.13% against the dollar. Meanwhile, the European currency continued to maintain a strong stance, with the US dollar falling 2.59% against the Swiss franc.

In this sense, the US dollar has not been weakening against the European monetary system or the rise in commodity currencies (the US dollar to the Canadian dollar has fallen by 1.26% in a month). Then when will the spring of the dollar come?

Let's take a look at the latest figures. The US retail sales month rate in March was +1.1%, the largest increase since September 2012. It is expected that +0.9% will be revised from +0.3% to +0.7%, and the core retail sales rate will be +0.7% in March, the biggest increase since February 2013, and the expected value of +0.5% will be +0.3%.

In March, the number of non farm employment increased by 192 thousand in the United States, with an expected increase of 200 thousand people. The former value increased by 175 thousand. The unemployment rate of the United States in March was 6.7%, with an expected value of 6.6%, and the former value was 6.7%. The labor department also increased the number of non farm workers to 197 thousand in February. Although the number of non farm workers is slightly lower than expected in March, the market is very positive. For example, the Bank of Paris in France pointed out that as long as the non-agricultural data in March are close to market expectations, it will make us believe that the US economy is getting rid of the influence of the winter cold and is enough to maintain and continue the US dollar earlier this week.

As for the April 5th week employment data, it suggests that the US labor market is likely to experience a spring recovery. In early April 5th, the number of unemployed Jin people in the United States dropped to 300 thousand, a record low in the past 7 years.

Let's take a look at the views of some organizations.

The Bank of Paris, France, said that the New York dollar against the US dollar hit a cyclical high of 0.8747 last week and then suffered a profit. The New York dollar will weaken further against the US dollar, suggesting that the New Zealand dollar should be sold against the US dollar; the New Zealand Federal Reserve's interest rate has been digested, and the US data is strong this week.

Institutional alignment Euro Maintain a cautious attitude. Royal Bank of Scotland believes that the current shorting of the euro may only be a temporary phenomenon; the continued strengthening of the eurozone periphery and the mild recovery of the economy remain noteworthy. Bank of America Merrill Lynch pointed out: Delaki's remarks may temporarily block the appreciation of the euro; if the ECB does not take concrete actions, the euro will not be weakened; the situation in Ukraine worsens or exceeds market expectations, which will push up the risk of currency such as yen, Swiss franc and the US dollar.

Beijing time 20:45 tonight, chairman Yellen of the Federal Reserve will open a speech at the 2014 financial market conference sponsored by the Atlanta fed.

Yellen issued a speech after the end of the US Federal Reserve resolution March that the interest rate hike started after the end of QE this autumn. The market reaction was strong at that time, but the minutes of the March Federal Reserve meeting released last week did not mention the word "raising interest rates", which made the market raise interest when the Fed raised interest rates at any time. This undoubtedly makes Yellen's speech this week more concerned.

However, considering that Yellen is only giving an opening speech today, the time of his speech will not be long. The focus of the Atlanta fed financial market conference is not entirely on monetary policy. Therefore, there is uncertainty about whether Yellen will touch on the core topic tonight.

If Yellen does not touch the core issues tonight, the market reaction will probably be limited. If it expresses its views on monetary policy, hawks and doves will directly determine the trend of the US dollar.

Looking ahead from the perspective of investment banking, it may be more likely that Wednesday's (Beijing time Thursday morning) Yellen's speech at New York Economic Club is more critical. Indeed, in Wednesday's speech, Yellen will clearly relate to "monetary policy and economic recovery".

The New York Economic Club is quite a source for Yellen. In September last year, it was the New York economist club who cancelled the speech as vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, Yellen, which prompted foreign media to guess that the White House was close to nominating it as the chairman of the Federal Reserve. This Wednesday, Yellen's speech, which is "half a year late", will make a clear statement, which will undoubtedly attract the attention of global investors.

Citigroup said Yellen would only be surprised if he published less pigeon speeches, but the FOMC meeting minutes released in April 9th were completely different. The market believes that the Federal Reserve will adopt an attitude of supporting the economy at the time of improving economic data. This will put pressure on the US dollar.

Lombard Street Research analyst Dario Perkins pointed out that the withdrawal of unprecedented monetary stimulus by the Federal Reserve will be the most pressing problem facing the global economy. If the Federal Reserve has any mistakes, it will bring huge risks.

He wrote in his research report: "if the Federal Reserve, as predicted in its forecast, maintains a loose policy, it may trigger a new asset price bubble and accelerate the exit may reduce this risk, but FOMC and the market seem to be not ready yet."

except Yellen's speech Besides this week, there are also statements made by Federal Reserve officials such as Minneapolis Federal Reserve Chairman Kocherlakota (Narayana Kocherlakota), Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Kocherlakota (Dennis Lockhart) and Boston Federal Reserve Chairman Rosengren (Eric Rosengren). In addition, former Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke (Ben Bernake) visited India this week and is expected to make a speech at that time.