China'S Domestic Clothing Market Will Grow In 09 Years

2008 operation of the industry: the profit of the former August increased by 3.2% over the same period last year. In 2008, the industry continued to decline as a result of the slowdown in the external demand, the appreciation of the RMB 7%, the increase in labor costs under the general inflation of high inflation, and the high lending rate.

In 2008 1-9, the output of yarn, cloth and clothing decreased by 8.45 points, 6.14 points and 8.29 points.

In the 1-9 month, the growth rate of fixed assets investment in textile industry and clothing shoes and caps dropped 21.8 points and 24.4 points.

In 2008 1-8, the gross income and profit of the textile industry increased by 15.5% and 3.2%, down 7.5 and 30 respectively.

The 2009 domestic outlook of international clothing consumption is expected to increase by 3.3%. The main domestic market pressures in 2009 include slow growth of household income, lagging effect of wealth consumption, and declining consumer confidence. We refer to the evolution of clothing consumption and macro economy in the United States, Korea and India over the past 40 years. Combined with the history of 1992-2007 years of clothing consumption and macro economy in China, we expect the overall domestic clothing market in 2009 to grow by 1.3%-5.3% over the same period last year.

2009 export Outlook: the export environment is getting warmer, the export growth is expected to be 1.6%, the export tax rebate rate will rise, interest rates will decline, the RMB will be basically flat or depreciated against the US dollar, the cost of raw materials will be reduced, and the export market share will increase. This will form the main driving force of investment export in 2009.

Sensitivity analysis of textile and clothing consumption in major export areas, we expect that in 2008 and 2009, China's textile and garment exports increased by 6.9% and 1.6% over the same period last year.

Investment strategy: we recommend a robust domestic brand apparel company and a strong bargaining power export leader. China's per capita consumption of clothing and home textiles is much lower than that of developed countries. In the long run, China's domestic brand clothing will continue to grow.

Judging from the decline of the domestic market, the brand clothing enterprises choose defensive brands as the keynote, and choose to operate a stable brand clothing company to share the next round of prosperity, such as the American state dress, the wedding bird, the seven wolves and Weixing shares; the export companies maintain the recommended rating of Rebecca, and maintain the neutral rating of Lu Tai A, Fu Tian shares and Jin Fei Da temporarily.

Yang Jing: editor in charge