The Dream Of A Profitable Bull Market Can Be Awakened By The End Of The Golden Age.

Jeremy Grantham, the founder of the US investment management giant GMO and the market bubble prophet, has made predictions about the market more than 10 years ago. He warned that the bull market of the US stock market could come to an end at any time. Recently, the fall in the first place of technology stocks was once again quoted by him.

The recent market is worrying. This week equity market It has become a nightmare for global technology companies, such as AOL, FireEye, Zulily and other technology companies on Wednesday's share price plunged 20%, while mobile advertising Millennial Media released its earnings, and its share price fell 46%. Other publicly known technology companies have lost their share prices. China's stock market has also dropped recently. Yesterday's listing of cheetah mobile was obviously affected by the low market situation, when it rose by only 0.71%.

Grantham's previous Forecast It points out that the bull market "may be derailed by disappointing global economic growth, the decline in corporate profits or the slowdown in China's economic growth."

Grantham said that the S & P 500 index could break 2250 points before the US presidential election in 2016, specifically "depending on what new munitions the US Federal Reserve can excavate"; but after that, the so-called "black swan" will take off before and after the election, and the market bubble will burst. Then the S & P 500 index will "return to the trend value, which is about half or lower than the peak value".

According to Grantham's prediction, the S & P 500 index will drop to near 1125. This means that the bull market driven by the Fed will "end in misery". By then, the US stock market will usher in 2000-2003 years. Internet Such a stock market crash, such as the stock market crash, the market value may be like 2007-2009 years evaporation 10 trillion dollars.

　　 A more serious crisis than in 2008?

Mai Jiahua, a Marc Faber, warned on Thursday that the 2008 financial crisis may be just a precursor. There will also be a more serious economic crisis in the future, and this new crisis is imminent. In an interview with CNBC, Mai Jiahua said he was worried that a new financial crisis might be brewing in the middle of the second half of this year.

Mai Jiahua pointed out that compared with the 2007, the current total credit volume, including corporate bonds, government bonds and consumer debt, has increased by 30 percentage points in the economic scale of the developed economies. "I don't think the economy is recovering at all," he said. "In fact, the growth rate of the US economy is slowing down."

According to Mai Jiahua's prediction, cash may be the most attractive asset in the next 6 months. He also likened the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Janet Ellen (Janet Yellen), to a "banknote printing machine" and pointed out that printing money would lead to a depreciation of the US dollar. In addition, he pointed out that geopolitical risks such as the Ukraine crisis are also a negative factor for the financial market.

In an interview with CNBC last month, Mai Jiahua said he expected the sale of the so-called "power stocks" to spread to the US stock market, and it is expected that the stock market will have a callback later this year.

　　 Ten major danger signals of bubble burst

Edward Chancellor Chancellor, an investment strategist at GMO Asset Management Co and a research expert in speculative bubble risk, warned that investors must be alert to a ticking time bomb. "Edward" The team led by Chancellor is responsible for tracking the market bubble. The team recently released a research report that lists ten high risk asset bubbles currently facing the US financial market. GMO believes that these bubbles have brought warning signs to the world, indicating that a terrible stock market crash is just around the corner.

The decline of the global technology stocks is exactly the reflection of the three big bubbles of "eternal growth", "zero valuation assets" and "irrational prosperity". Facebook, Tesla, Twitter and other ways of earning are scarce or not yet formed, and now the market is obsessed with growth rather than profits, which has brewed huge risks.