Has The RMB Exchange Rate Bottomed Out?

　　 "Crazy." depreciation "Or" farewell "

In the week before the May 1 holiday, although the middle price continued to rise, the Yuan went against the US dollar in the spot market to a total of 6.2650, refreshing its new low for a year and a half, reflecting the year-round year-round increase.

However, the "derogatory" situation has been converged this week. On the 5 day, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was 6.1560, up 20 basis points from the previous trading day. At the same time, the yuan rose to 6.2450 from the US dollar in the spot market from 6.2550. On the 6 day, the spot exchange rate of RMB continued to rebound strongly, from 6.2385 to 6.2300.

Fu Peng, deputy director and chief macroeconomic adviser of Galaxy Futures Research Center, said after the observation of the disk that there were obvious signs of intervention in the market. It is clear that the central bank has released the signal, saying that it does not want the unilateral depreciation of the RMB exchange rate in a unilateral way. "Micro-blog"

　　 Ministry of Commerce Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the international trade and Economic Cooperation Institute, told reporters that the recent changes in the RMB trend mainly contained three factors: first, the technical adjustment was caused by the excessive depreciation; the two was related to the reaction of the US; the US Treasury Department expressed "serious concern" about the former RMB fluctuations; three, if the depreciation was excessive, it might trigger. Capital outflow Or to induce more funds to short the renminbi related assets will bring negative effects.

　　 It's too early to decide whether to see the bottom or not.

Some foreign exchange traders judged from the technical side that the previous 6.2670 was the bottom of the RMB exchange rate and the lower level of the interval oscillation during the year, so the RMB exchange rate has bottomed out in the year.

However, another voice believes that the recent RMB strength is a normal two-way fluctuation. The key to the future exchange rate is whether the Chinese economy will stabilise in the two quarter.

Liu Weiming, a senior international financial market expert at CITIC Bank (601998, stock bar), looks at the possibility that the RMB exchange rate will be collated in May. There will be further downside in the market. There are two aspects to be judged:

On the one hand, if the signal of China's economic stabilization is not obvious in the two quarter, the RMB may continue to maintain its weakness or go down to the 6.35 - 6.4 area again.

On the other hand, from the recent increments of RMB dim sum bonds and trade settlement, it has not been affected by the weakening of the RMB, indicating that the process of RMB internationalization is sufficient to withstand greater exchange rate adjustment.

　　 Preventing continued depreciation of expected spread

Although many agencies have lowered their expectations of the RMB exchange rate, most institutions believe that the renminbi will appreciate slightly in the second half of this year. However, the report released by Da and capital has aroused heated debate in the market. The report says the renminbi will fall by 8% against the US dollar in the next two years.

Although the judgment of Da he capital is "exaggerated", it also reminds us of the importance of stabilizing market expectations. Regardless of appreciation or devaluation, too fierce unilateral market is unfavorable to the real economy and financial market. Therefore, we need to follow the principle of gradual control, which coincides with the subtle changes in the RMB exchange rate recently.

Looking ahead, the market anticipation will change as malicious speculation and bet appreciation are reduced. Liu Weiming predicts that the force that will affect the trend of RMB will be more diversified in the future, and the RMB exchange rate will show slow adjustment and repeated shocks.