US Dollar Roundabout Economy To Stabilize Exchange Rate Direction

< p > this week, the US dollar index of foreign exchange market has risen from 79 to 80. However, the US index still keeps a slight low level, and the biggest change of exchange rate in a week is the expectation of the euro.

The US dollar against the euro exchange rate remained at the level of US $1.37, and the index fluctuated between us $1.3710-1.3756. The stable situation of the euro still indicates upward planning. Although the euro economy does not support, the technical strategy is trying to push ahead.

The other is the change in the US dollar to sterling exchange rate, and the price range gradually rises in the US $1.68-1.67, which is the key to the configuration of the euro.

< /p >

The exchange rate between us dollar and Swiss franc is also Lingering between 0.88-0.89 Swiss francs. The uncertainty is greater. P

The US dollar exchange rate is also in the 1.08-1.09 Canadian dollar's entourage, the fluctuation is uncertain.

The US dollar remained stable at 0.93 US dollars against the Australian dollar.

The US dollar stabilized against the New Zealand dollar at US $0.86, the same as the Australian dollar.

The exchange rate between the US dollar and the yen is between 101-102 yen.

< /p >

< p > 1, the exchange rate economy is more serious.

The biggest economic indicator differentiation this week is the focus.

On the one hand, the euro area's economic growth in the first quarter is only 0.2%, lower than the expected optimism; on the other hand, the first quarter of Japan's economic growth rate is more than two years, the fastest growth, economic growth of 5.9%.

Before the first quarter of the US economy was also unsatisfactory. The game between the exchange rates was divorced from the real economy.

The indicators released by the European Union this week show that the euro zone's economic growth in the first quarter of this year is only 0.2%, less than expected 0.4%, among which the differentiation between countries is more serious.

Germany's first quarter strong economic growth, France's second largest economy in the euro area has no growth, and the two countries are in sharp contrast.

France's first quarter economy was barely shrunk, relying on inventory adjustment and government spending, while Germany's bright performance was mainly driven by domestic demand.

Germany's first quarter grew 0.8%, higher than market expectations, and two times the fourth quarter of last year.

The market expected France to grow by 0.2%, but it was hard to achieve.

To this end, the German Federal Statistical Office said that its economic growth momentum entirely from the domestic, foreign trade is restricting growth.

In addition, the first quarter economic contraction in Italy and Portugal also contrasted sharply with the strong economic growth figures in Germany, and directly hit the stock markets of both countries, bringing the whole European stock market back from its many year highs.

Compared with Japan's fastest growth in more than two years in 1-3 months, consumer spending has been rising before the consumption tax rises, and corporate investment is rising, showing confidence in the prospects for future economic growth.

Japan's first quarter economic growth rate was 5.9%, far better than the expected growth rate of 4.2%.

This is the fastest growth since the third quarter of 2011 increased by 10.8%.

To this end, Kuroda Higashihiko, President of the Bank of Japan, said that rising inflation expectations have pushed companies to raise wages and prices, and the economy will achieve a 2% inflation target.

The exchange rate changes have different national conditions, but the exchange rate stability and the US dollar index are obvious.

< /p >

< p > 2, asset price index divergence highlights.

This week's international gold price has been hovering between $1300. Gold is still expected to be depressed. The impact of the low price forecast of major investment banks continues, including the downward trend in overall commodity and resource prices.

In fact, in the new era of excess liquidity, coupled with the huge difference between the economic base factor and the cycle stage, there are great differences in the basis of the price of resources or commodity prices. It is difficult for the simple price factors to carve out clear directions or trends.

Chinese factors are hot spots, but there are differences and differences between Chinese factors and developed ones.

Western energy or resources are from industry to market, industry prosperity promotes market development, we are more from capacity to price, chase profits seriously, and then destroy benign and normal cycle industrial cycle and development, and even destroy the foundation and foundation of industry.

Therefore, when we evaluate the expectations of foreign investment banks, we should take steps to improve and enhance the elements of our own development needs. The industrial foundation and industry foundation are very important, not to be intimidated by price.

The complexity of gold situation deserves further discussion and conclusion.

However, < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > gold price < /a > comes from the US dollar, and has an impact on resources and commodity prices.

< /p >

There is a turning point in the debate between < p > 3, < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > monetary policy < /a >.

One week's monetary policy concerns remain the focus.

In particular, the Fed's meeting is drawing near, and the market is beginning to guess the trend of the Fed.

A href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > the Federal Reserve /a, "internal economists are trying to measure the strength of the US job market to decide the future policy orientation, but at present, they even have no idea what to use.

The focus is on the current unemployment rate of 6.3%, which effectively reflects the level of idle capacity in the job market, but a comprehensive assessment should not be limited to the unemployment rate. It should also examine the stagnation of wage growth, a large number of long-term unemployed people and the decline in employment participation rate.

The current and former Fed officials and many private economists say that because the interest rate close to zero gives the Fed almost no space to take new measures to stimulate growth, policymakers will not tighten monetary policy until the situation becomes clearer.

The Fed is faced with a very complicated environment. In this case, it will not say that no action has been taken ahead of schedule, and there will be no reason to expect that wages will remain unchanged for a time and then rapidly increase.

Another reason why economists differ in the physique of the job market is that it is hard to estimate how low the unemployment rate will be, and that wage pressure will begin to accumulate.

Therefore, Fed officials estimate that they will be reduced to about 5.2%-5.6%, but there may be some volatility.

The March study released by San Francisco Fed President Williams showed that the normal unemployment rate has probably risen to around 6.5%.

The number of unemployed Americans hit a 7 year low last week. In April, consumer prices rose the biggest in 10 months, indicating that the US economy is getting better.

In May, the New York Fed's manufacturing activities expanded at the fastest pace in nearly 4 years, but the unexpected drop in industrial production in April made the bright growth confidence a little worried.

The focus of the Fed's debate and the complexity of the US economic performance will make the future foreign exchange market more complex and less likely to become the focus of the Fed or the US dollar and foreign exchange market.

< /p >

< p > it is expected that the short-term dollar will still have a devaluation. The purpose of the expected indicators will increase the market technical strength, but the economic foundation and the comparison are not conducive to the technical application.

Therefore, the fluctuation of the foreign exchange market will increase, the adjustment and the rest period will appear, the volatility will increase, but will not change the US dollar depreciation path, the currency combination difference, the price performance will be different.

< /p >