2014 Gold Market Focus In The Second Half

< p > > the world's < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > clothing < /a > a target= "_blank" href= "_blank" > shoes < < hat net "Xiaobian to introduce the focus of gold market in the second half of 2014: gold price fixing power to move eastward.

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< p > the US economy is recovering from weakness. It is estimated that in the first half of the year, the price of gold will probably be between $1180 / ounce and $1295 / ounce, and the pricing power of gold has moved eastward.

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< p > 2013, the world's gold market was bustling with excitement. "China's aunt" grabbed gold, gold futures were launched at night, and the US federal government closed down, and so on, once the market was badly battered.

However, 2013 gold is not a good year. After the historical high of $1920 / ounce in 2011, the 2013 gold price did not work miracles again. Since April 10th, gold prices have experienced a sharp fall, and bear status has been maintained throughout the year.

Although institutional investors have been selling off, Asian investors, led by China and India, have been strongly absorbing gold, which has strong support for the formation of gold prices.

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< p > < strong > < a > href= > http://www.91se91.com/news/index_s.asp > > gold price < /a > decline the culprit < /strong > /p >

< p > April 12, 2013, 13 and June 20, 2013, gold prices fell 5.67%, 8.45% and 5.86% respectively, and officially declared gold into bear market.

In the bear market, investors' willingness to invest in paper gold is also continuing to weaken.

By the middle of November, SPDR holdings fell to 866 tons, down 476 tons compared with the beginning of the year.

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< p > reviewing the trend in 2013, we finally found the reason why the price of gold fell: the real interest rate rose rapidly.

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< p > despite the fact that the Fed did not reduce QE in September 2013, the entire 2013 market had already given enough QE reduction expectations, and finally worried about the rising cost of QE, which announced that the Federal Reserve announced in December 2013 that the purchase size of QE would be reduced by US $10 billion per month.

The result of this measure is that the yield of the us ten - year treasury bond (market benchmark interest rate) has soared to a level of 3% (a slight drop to 2.82% in recent years).

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< p > under the condition of stable inflation expectations, the nominal return rate has become the main factor leading to the real interest rate change. Because the nominal yield is more interfered by other factors including the economic fundamentals and so on, the correlation between the gold price and the real interest rate is weaker than that in the past. For example, the correlation between the 7 and August was even positive once.

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< p > < strong > Golden Year bright spot < /strong > < /p >

< p > although the price of gold eventually dropped by about 27% in 2013, its price was only the beginning of the 2011 dream.

This is considered to be a correction of the market's spawning of asset bubbles for QE2 and QE3. In fact, gold still has bright spots in 2013: < /p >

< p > hedge against US dollar credit risk.

Gold, in essence, still has an alternative effect on credit money, though it can no longer become a real payment currency. This is a clear glance at the previous US government shutdown or debt ceiling. Recently, in October 17, 2013, when the US debt rating was downgraded, gold prices rose by 2.47% on a single day.

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< p > a more healthy consumption structure.

After more than three quarters of outflow of investment funds, the proportion of consumption and investment of gold in terminal demand has again become reasonable, far from the $1980 / ounce gold bubble structure (which was relatively close in 2011).

This makes 2014 gold once rebounded or reversed, and will not suffer from the selling of demand in the large-scale investment field, which is a very positive signal.

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< p > < strong > 2014 focus of attention < /strong > /p >

< p > the world gold paction is supported by a very small physical gold market for a huge paper gold market and a larger gold derivative market. In fact, the paction of paper gold market needs a physical gold inch. The price changes will make physical gold flow between the paper gold market and the physical gold market, and ultimately achieve their own balance.

In 2014, we need to focus on the QE reduction time point brought by the US economic situation; the US inflation expectation after QE reduction; the physical gold sales situation (including the proportion structure of central bank purchase and gold investment consumption) < /p >

< p > the US economy is recovering from weakness.

CPI (core PCE), non farm employment, new housing starts and sales and durable goods orders index to measure the true or bad quality of the US economy.

Data show that the US will not be trapped in inflation for at least a short period of time; however, when QE starts to bring back the US dollar, inflation will rise or rise; new housing starts and sales growth is still in a reasonable recovery range (0, 20), and there is a weak trend in the near future, which needs to be closely followed; the employment data will gradually improve, the total unemployment rate will decline, and the non-agricultural employment will fall unexpectedly in December. Most of the total unemployment rate will continue to decrease to 6.7% due to bad weather. Finally, durable goods orders also show that the manufacturing industry in the United States is continuously improving.

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These data indicators above P indicate that the US economy is continuing to recover, despite repeated weakness.

Therefore, it is estimated that the US Federal Reserve will continue to reduce the purchase size of QE in the first half of 2014. Under this assumption, on the one hand, the real interest rate will continue to rise under the influence of nominal interest rates in the first half of 2014. Meanwhile, the Fed's reduction will also trigger a stronger US dollar index, and the US dollar will return to the US in the first half of 2014.

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< p > we can say that in the first half of the year, higher real interest rates and stronger US dollar will jointly suppress the trend of gold prices. Even if there is a staged rebound, it is difficult to reverse the trend of gold prices.

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The inflation that the United States exported to the world will also be imported to the United States will be imported into the United States. When the US stock market is likely to plummet and the bond market and commodity market are both in the doldrums, it will be difficult for the repatriated capital to enter the reservoir of the assets. This will generate the surplus money in circulation and make us inflation possible in the second half of 2014. On the other hand, the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve is constrained by the excessive level of fiscal deficit and dare not raise interest rates arbitrarily. According to the prediction of CBO, if the Federal Reserve raises 1% interest rate, it will directly touch the warning line of the S & P's downgrading of the bond (its interest expense / fiscal revenue will touch the watershed of 10%), and its excessive debt scale restraining the increase of interest rate space is very obvious. In the second half of 2014, when the dollar came back, P became a trend.

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< p > therefore, in the second half of 2014, in the second half of the year, when the Fed is unable to raise interest rates or even face sharp falls in the US stock market and the need for easy monetary policy in the context of a downturn in the bond market, the high inflation probability will be extremely painful for the Fed. This means that the real interest rate will fall at a faster rate than the market expected.

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In the first half of the year, the gold price will probably oscillate between us $1180 / ounce and US $1295 / ounce. In the second half of the year, we will consider the US economic data, especially the inflation data, to see if there will be a phase reversal in P.

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< p > pay attention to the pfer of gold pricing power.

In 2013, although the gold slump caused the global total demand for gold to decline, the global demand for physical gold fell by 21% in the third quarter of 2013, but China's gold demand remained high. In the three quarter, the demand for physical gold increased 18% to 210 tons.

Correspondingly, the number of gold imports from China's Hongkong has continuously hit a new high. Data show that gold imports from Hongkong in China in October 2013 were 40 times higher than last year, the highest in fourth consecutive months.

On the other hand, we can also find that the center of world gold trading and the center of pricing are gradually shifting to China.

In July 5, 2013, the Shanghai futures exchange launched the gold and silver night market trading, so that the domestic precious metal trading market was further integrated with the international market. After the completion of the international logistics market, marcac MGM global logistics has established a gold warehouse that can accommodate 2000 tons of gold in the Shanghai free trade area. This will change the domestic gold purchase mode and give Shanghai a certain foundation for future gold trading centers.

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< p > under the new mode, the sellers of foreign institutions can store gold in large quantities in the Treasury. Once the buyer needs in the country, the goods can be delivered immediately and settled abroad, thus avoiding the tedious pportation.

Domestic institutions can also purchase gold at any time overseas, and store them in the free trade area to get clearance after approval.

Under this mode, trading gold will substantially reduce the time and risk of buyers and sellers, and provide sufficient conditions for domestic gold, whether in cash or in futures delivery.

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< p > on the other hand, there has also been significant changes in gold pricing pactions recently.

Due to the upcoming launch of Volcker rule, overseas firms are gradually divestiing the commodity business.

The recent investigation of gold price manipulation has undoubtedly accelerated the process. Deutsche Bank has said that it will sell gold and silver fixed price seats, which has attracted market attention in the market manipulation of the scandals of frequent scandals. It is believed that the status of Asia in the market is becoming more important because of the eastward flow of gold. Asian banks such as Bank of China and industrial and Commercial Bank of China may be excellent candidates. Both banks are members of the London gold and silver Market Association (LBMA).

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< p > for now, the fixed price of < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > Gold > /a "is still of great value, so it is even more difficult for every customer participating in the market to negotiate and determine the selling price. If the price holder leaves, the gold price will be questioned.

Therefore, if the above pfer happens, the Chinese market will be considered more in the gold market quotation, which is undoubtedly a very positive news for gold at the moment.

At present, apart from Deutsche Bank, the other four banks involved in gold pricing are Barclays, HSBC (HSBC), Societe Generale and Canada's Bank of Scotia (ScotiaMocatta).

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