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Leading Indicators Indicate That The June Direction Of "June Robbery" Is Hard To Emerge.

2014/5/30 9:18:00 11

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Leading Indicators A Shares Stock Market

"June robbery" is difficult to appear .
 June is the a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > risk > /a > outbreak month in A share history, whether in June 2008 or in June last year, it is corresponding to the substantial adjustment of stocks. But this year, "June robbery" is hard to reproduce. From the driving factor analysis, the core logic that triggered the fall in June 2008 is the superimposed effect of the continuous tightening of domestic monetary policy. The decline in June last year is the crowding out effect of risk-free interest rates rising rapidly under the background of money shortage, driven by external forces. At present, the downward trend of economic growth is basically established. The relevant policy keynote is positioned to maintain the stability of the whole macro environment, and the risk of external environment is limited. In particular, since the beginning of the year, the central bank has been loosely targeted, with a net increase in the amount of funds invested within a single week to maintain interbank liquidity, interbank 127 regulation and interbank business, and local governments' guidance on issuing bonds, and other measures, mainly aiming at the liquidity risk caused by the mismatch of non-standard business funds and the debt problem most worried by the market. The above two factors are most likely to become the black swans of the A shares. Since the policy side has already made grooming and defensive measures, the situation of systemic risk in June can be ruled out. 
 > a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > stock index futures < /a > is the leading indicator of market sentiment, and this first indicator also reveals an optimistic signal. Usually in the process of market decline, the pessimistic expectations continue to rise, the index will show a continuous premium, but at the end of the fall, because of the pessimism to complete the vent, it will show a reduction in absolute value of the discount. This year, the lowest point of the CSI 300 index came from 2077 in March 21st, and the lowest point of the main contract IF1406 was in March 20th, before the index stabilized, the biggest drop was 2.59% in March 20th. The latest low point in Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was 2096 in May 21st. The lowest point of the main contract IF1406 was 2082 points, the discount rate narrowed from 2.59% to 0.67%. The rapid reduction of the absolute value of the discount during the fall is an important signal for the release of pessimism. As of May 29th, the discount rate of IF1406 and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 had basically been eliminated. Judging from the emotional perspective, if the potential risks in June are large, it is very difficult to reduce the discount rate. Therefore, the change of index discount shows that the overall risk in June is limited. 
 new and old logical switching window will be .
 > a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > A shares < /a > the long-term trend is the expectation of the economic cycle, the medium term is the anticipation of the policy, and the short-term is the feedback of emotion. After the Spring Festival, the market is in the revision period of expectations and emotions, that is, from last year's optimistic expectations of reform dividends to the reality of spanition pains and economic deceleration. With the improvement of economic data and the introduction of various policies, pessimism has been released more fully, and the embryonic form of the long run economy has basically emerged. The systemic risk of driving the weakening of A shares is already limited. From the big economic cycle, the embryonic form of economic growth and the upgrading of growth mode from investment drive to connotative type of efficiency have emerged, and will become the core program of future economic operation. This change is reflected in many policy fields such as monetary policy setting, directional stimulation, excess capacity elimination, local debt arrangement and so on. At the same time, the uncertainty of market policy and future economic cycle is dispelled. After the gradual elimination of uncertainty, capital preference will gradually shift from the past risk aversion to the new cycle configuration, and the recent strengthening of information security concept is a typical representative. With the switching of capital logic, the correlation coefficient between plate and index will continue to decline. As from 2004 to 2007, in the logic switching stage, banks and other cycle varieties become the mainstay of the two cities, and the same situation will emerge in the emerging sector in the future. As logic and anticipated handover take time, it will not happen overnight, so A shares will still show the trend of concussion resistance in the short term, and the critical point of mid term upward will not come. If the cycle is lengthened, the switch of the old and new logic often corresponds to the switch of the ox bear, so this year A shares are likely to be the last year of bear market since 2008. 
 the biggest risk of A shares in the future stage is structural risk, which is mainly concentrated in the small cap stocks which are falsified in performance and growth. Heavyweights benefited from the clearing of pessimistic expectations. There was a certain demand for valuation restoration, mainly concentrated in finance, real estate and so on, but the rate of increase was limited. In this environment, thematic investment is still the best target. Recently, independent themes such as information security, financial security and other topics have emerged. In the future, chip localization, electronic consumption, aircraft manufacturing, medical devices, energy saving, environmental protection, water conservancy construction and other short-term policies oriented industries still deserve attention. In the direction of new and old logic switching, any industry that is in line with the new logic, such as information technology and biofunds, which has been heavily funded in the past year, has seen a sharp adjustment in share prices in the first quarter.