Bull Knife: A Study Of The Accuracy Within Three Months.

Now, the Chinese economy is on the edge of a complete collapse. It is not surprising at all. Every time the market plays a role of free regulation, the government will intervene. The more intervention the government will take, the closer it will be to the outbreak of the crisis, and finally the inevitable outcome of the former Soviet Union. It is self-evident that the severity of the crisis is directly proportional to the huge scale of the real estate bubble.

For example, the price of a real estate in Guangzhou dropped from 16 thousand to 21 thousand to 8900 yuan to 12 thousand yuan. After the bubble burst, the property was worth only 4600 yuan to 6000 yuan, and not necessarily someone would buy it. So now is not the time to burst. At this time, many people have asked for a comprehensive reduction. Some have even boasted that whoever becomes prime minister will drop the mark. 45% brokerages and 50% funds expect China to fully reduce its quota in the next three months. Is this reliable?

In early April, broker Guotai Junan announced that China's A shares rose 400 points in the two quarter. Anxin securities rebuttal immediately, the reason is that in the current market environment, China's A shares rebounded every round is the time when the agency shipped, it is impossible to continue to rise. Now, who is more reliable? In June 2nd, Cathay Pacific announced June. A shares There is 100 room to rise, and the A shares have fallen for two days. All gains in May were recalled. In this way, many institutions and brokerages are totally unreliable.

First, let's analyze this: the increase in the reserve rate is due to the announcement of the second quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve in 2011. Federal Reserve The end of quantitative easing. The logic is that there are two biggest factors in China's hyperinflation, one is endogenous, which is related to the central bank's printing money, and the other is exogenous, which is related to the quantitative easing of the Federal Reserve. So, is this economic adjustment going to be sustainable? China's economy Is it a soft landing or a hard landing? My analysis is that if the Central Bank continues to release water, there is only one way - hard landing.

Why? If the market is not adjusted, the market will be adjusted normally. China's economy will probably recover from three to five years, and China will have a revival after 10 years. If it is a hard landing, China will fall into a 20 year recession like Japan, and it will never lift its head.

Obviously, the time spent in September was when the securities dealers and the fund put the time node together, because it was very likely that the Federal Reserve announced the withdrawal of quantitative easing in September. As we all know, this has a great impact on China's economy. The release of water can delay the outbreak of the crisis. However, none of them has considered the side effects. This is a very dangerous thing that will happen. That is the fall of the RMB. Maybe the deposit reserve of 550 billion yuan has not yet reached the market, and the same money or even more money of the same nature will become a dollar escape. The result is that even if the deposit reserve is released, it will not work. On the contrary, the side effects may be far greater than the market expectations. Where to go can be seen in September.