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Xu Chenghong: The Rain Is Coming, And The Buildings Are Non-Agricultural.

2014/6/6 13:42:00 24

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Xu Chenghong Non-Agricultural And Economic Situation

> yesterday a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > foreign exchange market < /a > staged a scene of alarm. The ECB interest rate resolution fulfilled its previous policy commitments. The European Central Bank yesterday announced that the main refinancing rate will be lowered by 10 basis points to 0.15% record low, and for the first time the deposit rate will be reduced to minus 0.10%, becoming the first world central bank to implement negative interest rates. The euro fell sharply to 4 months after the announcement, but there has been a dramatic reversal since then. 
 what is the purpose of Euro reversal? 
The European Central Bank released almost all negative energy on Thursday, including interest rate cuts, negative deposit rates, ending SMP sterilisation, preparing the European version of quantitative easing and 400 billion long-term LTRO operations. But with the dollar hitting a 4 month low, the euro rebounded strongly. 
 the European Central Bank will lower the a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" deposit rate < /a > to -0.1%, becoming the first world central bank to implement negative interest rates. The index refinancing rate fell to 0.15% and the overnight lending rate fell to 0.4%. 
(P) after the European central bank governor Delaki and his colleagues made the European Central Bank the first central bank to implement negative interest rates and announced other policy plans to resist deflation, the euro / dollar fell, but then rebounded quickly. 
After the issuance of the European Central Bank policy statement, the euro reached a 1.3504 month low of four for the dollar. However, after the euro launched a wave of counterattack, the euro dollar exchange rate reversed the trend of V, which not only quickly recovered the previous decline but also rose to 1.3668 in the past two weeks, up 0.44% on the day. 
 the market believes that although Draghi took so many measures on Thursday, it is basically in line with market expectations. If there is no further action in the future, it is difficult to achieve the goal of high inflation. Therefore, the euro trend on Thursday may be a warning to Delaki, which reminds him that he is only beginning to take action. 
According to a series of initiatives taken by the European Central Bank on Thursday, P has basically reached the level of fire. In addition to the main refinancing rate slightly below the 15 base points expected by the market, all other easing measures and commitments have basically fallen within the scope of the market's anticipation of possible action. 
 but from the performance of the euro roller coaster, the market is obviously not buying it. There may be many reasons for this. On the surface, the European Central Bank has indeed adopted a series of loose measures. However, in the deep view, the ECB's round of measures may be more qualitative than that of the real economy. 
P the European Central Bank lowered the three interest rate to a record low to avoid the risk of Japanese deflation in the euro area and to lower the euro exchange rate. The ECB tried to force banks to lend to SMEs for the first time to charge 0.1% of the bank's overnight deposits at the central bank. Delaki did not announce the large-scale purchase of assets plan, that is, the so-called quantitative a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > easing policy < /a >, but indicated that it would take further action when necessary. 
"P" before the resolution, there were positions data showing that the market had already gathered a large number of Euro shorts because of investors' expectations of the European bank's extensive easing. At the beginning of the resolution, the rapid decline of the euro also attracted the admission of the air force. After that, especially in the interest of cash and profit, the euro's market quotation was not surprising. 
At least p, the European Central Bank's relaxed new deal, at least explains its confidence in taking action to help stabilize the economy. At the same time, the ECB also has a hand in easing quantitative easing measures, which means that the space for further abandoning broad policy will remain in the future, which may still be bad for the long-term trend of the euro exchange rate. 
 can non farm produce a new wave? /p >
 today the market will usher in the last trading day of the current super week. The US non farm data in May will be on the scene at 20:30 tonight. At present, the market expects us non farm jobs to increase by 218 thousand in May. The US unemployment rate in May increased by 0.1 percentage points to 6.4% from April and five and a half years. On Thursday, after the European Central Bank set off a storm, whether or not nun can continue to write the market will be unveiled tonight. 
At 20:30 P Beijing time, the US labor department will publish a report on non-agricultural employment. The global financial market will pay close attention to this. Compared with the previous two months, the non-agricultural data are quite different. First, the market expects the US unemployment rate to rise again. Two is the most critical non-agricultural forward looking indicator ADP released earlier than expected. Therefore, compared with the optimism before the announcement in the first two months, the market's expectations for the market will be less. 
 data released earlier showed that the number of ADP employment in April, which was known as small non-agricultural, increased by 179 thousand people, a new low in the past four months and 210 thousand less than the market expectation. This also made the market worried about the non-agricultural data on Friday. 
 if the non-agricultural data continue to perform well in May, it may raise the expectations of the Federal Reserve to accelerate the reduction (QE pace or even raise interest rates ahead of schedule), which will boost the US dollar. The Fed's open market committee meeting in April 30th reduced the size of the monthly debt purchase from 55 billion US dollars to US $45 billion. Conversely, if the performance is poor, the dollar will be suppressed. 
 of course, the need to prompt investors is that the data in addition to non-agricultural indicators and unemployment rate, the last non farm correction, as well as the employment participation rate, hourly wage performance is also worthy of the key attention, once a larger gap with expectations, may also have a greater impact on market sentiment. 
 although the increase in the number of non farm workers in the US in April is as high as 288 thousand, it should not be a surprise if this data is further repaired in the new non farm employment report released on Friday. 
 the market believes that in the past 20 months, 19 months of non-agricultural employment data have been revised upwards compared with the initial value, and the average repair rate has reached 37 thousand. Without accident, the growth rate of non farm employment in April is likely to reach 300 thousand or higher regulation. This can also prove that the US economy will experience a sharp rebound after the winter severe weather, and the overall economic outlook is still good. 
 but Goldman Sachs is not optimistic about us non farm data in May. It is expected to increase by 210 thousand people, less than 215 thousand expected by the market. Goldman Sachs expects May unemployment will rise from 6.30% to 6.50%, while the market is expected to be 6.40%. From the recent price performance, Goldman Sachs believes that if the non-agricultural data meet the expectations of the bank, it will not have a significant impact on the US debt market.