The Key To Textile Industry This Year Is Raw Materials And Exports.

The development of textile industry was stable in the period of < p > 2013.

Generally speaking, the textile industry has entered a sustained and low growth stage.

Last year, the main business revenue of the industry was about 6380000000000 yuan, up by more than 11% compared with the same period last year, while the overall profit of the whole industry was also 360 billion 500 million yuan, with an increase of over 17%.

Looking at these two data, it seems that the industry situation is still very good.

However, judging from the output of the main products, the situation is not satisfactory.

Regardless of yarn, cloth, chemical fiber and clothing, the output increased by more than 10% in the first quarter, basically at 11% up and down. By the middle of the year, the growth rate dropped to about 8% in about 5 and June.

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< p > after the second half of the year, in addition to the growth of over 12% of industrial textiles, the output of all other major products decreased to less than 8%.

The output of yarn is up by 7% over the National Bureau of statistics, but the cotton spinning association itself estimates that its growth is more than 1%.

Cloth production is also similar, according to the National Bureau of statistics data, there are more than 7% growth, Cotton Spinning Association's own estimates, it is about 2% minus a negative growth.

The annual output of clothing is only 1.25%, which is the lowest growth rate over the years.

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< p >, therefore, from the above data, it is true that last year's textile industry was a rather sad year, and the overall growth rate of the industry slowed down.

Last year, the GDP of the whole country was 7.7%, and the GDP of the textile industry increased by only 8.3%.

In addition, investment last year, the national investment is 19.7% growth rate. In the past, the investment in the textile industry was always far higher than that in the whole country, and the growth rate was over 30%. The highest time had reached 40%, but last year, only more than 17% of the investment in textile industry increased.

Of course, the growth of 17% is not necessarily an irrational growth, but this is also a sharp decline compared with the high growth period of textile industry.

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< p > < strong > characteristics of operation < /strong > < /p >

< p > last year China's cotton textile industry only used 8 million 300 thousand tons of cotton, 2 million tons less than the previous year, and China imported 2 million 130 thousand tons of cotton yarn.

This only refers to the problem of cotton yarn. In fact, the structure of chemical fiber, including the entire chemical fiber industry, has been showing up since last year. These are the effects of the cotton price difference on the textile industry.

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Another feature of < p > is the adjustment of < a href= "http:// www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > enterprise structure < /a >.

Now, in this situation, the order and profit of the whole textile industry, including production capacity, have been concentrated on large enterprises, especially in the < a href= "http:// www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > cotton textile industry < /a > knitting industry and garment industry.

This is also a reason why some enterprises are getting more and more difficult.

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< p > of course, another feature is that the whole industry's situation of energy saving and emission reduction is becoming more and more serious.

The textile industry has many new experiences in energy saving, but there is still a big gap between China and the international advanced level.

Therefore, the China Textile Industry Federation's Environmental Protection Committee has done a lot of training activities and consulting activities in the industry in recent years, which has greatly promoted the energy saving work of the whole industry.

The biggest problem is emission reduction, especially sewage discharge, which is similar to the energy saving and emission reduction work of the whole country.

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< p > another feature is the great pformation of terminals.

The current electricity supplier, online retailing is also increasing, and the figures for the whole year have not come out yet. But it is possible that clothing, clothing and household textiles will be close to even more than 500 billion yuan on the Internet.

Last year, the total retail sales of consumer goods in the whole society amounted to 23 trillion and 400 billion yuan, and about 11% of these 23 trillion and 400 billion yuan were textiles and household textiles.

That is to say, 2 trillion and 500 billion to 2 trillion and 600 billion yuan is textiles and clothing.

If online sales exceed 500 billion yuan, that is to say, the current terminal 20% is sold on the Internet.

Therefore, this piece will also cause a significant change in the sales way of some garment enterprises.

So, last year a part of the a href= "http://? www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > clothing enterprise > /a >, such as sportswear, clothing for young people, and so on, may be close to a bit faster and more, because the pfer of this part to online sales should be a number of hot goods.

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< p > < strong > beyond the imagination bright spot < /strong > /p >

< p > but in fact, last year there were several bright spots beyond everyone's imagination, especially exports.

Last year, we removed shoes and hats, and exported the total textile and clothing exports to US $292 billion, an increase of 11.24%, which is far higher than the 7.9% growth rate of the whole country.

Because the export growth of textile last year was only 3.32%, the second low point in 30 years, and back to over 11% last year.

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Less than P, but with this export, we hope to make up for this part of export reduction with domestic demand, but last year, domestic demand is decreasing, which is beyond everyone's expectation.

The total retail sales of consumer goods nationwide increased by 13.1% last year and only 11.7% of textiles.

In the past, there was an indicator in the "12th Five-Year plan" that the total retail sales of consumer goods in the whole society doubled in five years. This is the annual increase of 15% in the past five years. In the first few years, the textile industry basically increased by 17%. When the national growth rate was 17%, the textile industry increased by 19%, but now the whole country has dropped to 13.1%, and the textile industry has dropped faster than the whole country, with only 11.7%.

This shows that we need to do a lot of work in promoting domestic demand for textiles.

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< p > < strong > key to see both ends -- raw materials and exports < /strong > /p >

< p > so overall, in such a big environment of last year, the entire textile industry has realized a steady increase in such a situation, it should be said is very difficult.

In 2014, I personally believe that the whole industry situation is still dominated by "stability".

Because I think we may face more changes in the situation in 2014 than we did in 2013.

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< p > first is our two ends.

First, there will be changes in our raw materials.

As we all know, the cotton policy will give target subsidies to Xinjiang after the new cotton season comes up this year.

So, after hearing this news, many people think that our cotton will drop this year and will be closer to the price of the international market.

But I think the trend of cotton prices this year may be more difficult to predict than in the past two years.

Before September, it was still executing the state reserve price, which was 20400 yuan per ton. Now the acquisition is almost the same. More than 80% are now in the Treasury. The Treasury now has about 13000000 tons of cotton, which is equivalent to two years of production in the Treasury.

The price of 18000 yuan per ton will be set for the state, and this price will still be implemented in the first half of this year and even before September.

Cotton prices will not drop at least for a while.

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< p > after the listing of new cotton this year, although the state no longer stores and stores, the about 13000000 tons of cotton in the Treasury must take several years to digest it.

How to digest it? Now the state means only one import quota, so the digestion of national cotton reserves will inevitably be linked to import quotas.

How to hook up? What way to hook up? What price link should be used? This is a variable this year.

Therefore, I don't think we should hold much hope in the cotton market price.

There will be changes, but how can it be difficult to say.

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< p > second is chemical fiber.

The problems accumulated over the past few years in the adjustment of chemical fiber industrial structure have been emerging continuously for the past two years.

It is reasonable to say that, like cotton prices were so high last year, the price of chemical fiber should also be lifted up, because less cotton is used, and chemical fibre will be used in large quantities.

But in fact, the price of chemical fiber is still going down.

It looks as if the price of chemical fibre will not be raised this year. The adjustment of this industrial structure will be swallowed up this year, no matter how bitter or what fruit it is.

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< p > the other side of the change is mainly the market.

Our exports are expected to be more optimistic this year.

Because last year, although the growth rate of our direct exports to Europe, the United States and Japan was not high, our growth was mainly achieved by the export growth of the EU, but in fact, we exported to the European Union and exported to Europe and the United States.

Therefore, if the European and American market continues to pick up this year, it will be beneficial to our exports.

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< p > the larger variables are still in our domestic demand market.

The domestic demand market has dropped to around 11% last year, far below our expectations.

The amount of retail sales of consumer goods mentioned just now amounted to 20 trillion yuan for the urban population, while the rural population only consumed more than 3 billion yuan, while the rural population accounted for more than 40% of our current population, nearly half of the total population of.

The consumption ratio of rural population and urban population is only 1: 7.

Therefore, I believe that for our consumer goods such as clothing and home textiles, we will not be able to increase domestic consumption if we do not raise the level of consumption in the countryside.

Therefore, with the process of urbanization emphasized by the Central Committee, and with the improvement of people's living standards, I hope that the consumption of our rural population can bring our domestic demand to a higher level, hoping that this will be able to stimulate the entire domestic demand market in 2014.

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